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Tropical threats headed for the Hawaiian islands


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On the PHTO sounding, the wet-bulb zero is close to 600mb or 4400meters. That's a little above 13800 ft peaks.

 

 

PHWA radar is showing the center is about 38 nautical miles (44-45 miles) from the nearest land. Interestingly, it is showing biological echoes (gray, on the left side) instead of rain, in the region you would think would be the rainy eyewall.

 

post-1182-0-79567700-1407480798_thumb.pn

 

 

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On the PHTO sounding, the wet-bulb zero is close to 600mb or 4400meters. That's a little above 13800 ft peaks.

 

 

PHWA radar is showing the center is about 38 nautical miles (44-45 miles) from the nearest land. Interestingly, it is showing biological echoes (gray, on the left side) instead of rain, in the region you would think would be the rainy eyewall.

 

attachicon.gif2014_08_08_0641z_PHWA_iselle1_BR_and_hydrometeor.png

I would think the gray would be sea salt/sea spray.

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On the PHTO sounding, the wet-bulb zero is close to 600mb or 4400meters. That's a little above 13800 ft peaks.

 

 

PHWA radar is showing the center is about 38 nautical miles (44-45 miles) from the nearest land. Interestingly, it is showing biological echoes (gray, on the left side) instead of rain, in the region you would think would be the rainy eyewall.

 

attachicon.gif2014_08_08_0641z_PHWA_iselle1_BR_and_hydrometeor.png

Here is why you saw biological echoes. Impressive pick up by the WSR!

http://westhawaiitoday.com/hurricane-season-2014/release-hydrogen-sulfide-puna-geothermal-venture-plant-contained

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Woke up at 05:00 am expecting to see that Iselle had moved in already and wreaking it's havoc only to find it had slowed and weakened.   Looks like rain will be the most dangerous feature of this storm.  I shudder to think what 18-20 inches is going to do to the Windward side of the island.  Flooding is going to be a major problem.  Rock and land slides will most certainly occur along Highway 19 since that is the most vulnerable with the steep mountain ravines it winds through and the raging creeks which will become rivers with debris building up under bridges.  That is always the area where slides are at their worst during even minor storms.  Highway 19 becomes Highway 11 through Hilo and continues around the southern tip of the Island will also most likely close due to flooding/downed trees etc. with this area taking the brunt of the wind.  Once that happens, Hilo will be cut off until the roads are cleared and opened.  That will take a while.  Saddlie Road which cuts through the center of the Island is a wasteland of poorly maintained bumpy road  through an endless landscape of flat Lava fields which won't help flash flooding concerns.  You get stuck there and you are on your own.  Not a safe option at the best of conditions.   

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WTPA63 PHFO 081245

TCUCP3

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014

245 AM HST FRI AUG 8 2014

...CENTER OF ISELLE MAKES LANDFALL...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 230 AM

HST...1230 UTC...ALONG THE KAU COAST ON THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 5

MILES EAST OF PAHALA.

SUMMARY OF 245 AM HST...1245 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 155.4W

ABOUT 40 MI...64 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII

ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

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Iselle is decoupling. The MLC looks like it's being blocked/slowed down by Mauna Kea on the Big Island, while the (old) LLC might have been destroyed altogether. Latest satellite indicates a new LLC on the lee-side of Mauna Kea back out in the Pacific way out in front of the convection. Lee cyclogenesis in action.

You mean Mauna Loa?  

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Official landfall in Pahala.    That is a community South of Volcano National Park.  Naalehu which is very close to Pahala is the major dairy town of the Big Island.  Not a good place to have landfall. . 

There were some inward/outward base velocities in the 62-64 knot range at the time of landfall. The eye of the 'cane looks a little more like an ear.

 

base velocity is at 2.5 degrees

 

post-1182-0-53397600-1407507462_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

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  Saddlie Road which cuts through the center of the Island is a wasteland of poorly maintained bumpy road  through an endless landscape of flat Lava fields which won't help flash flooding concerns.  You get stuck there and you are on your own.  Not a safe option at the best of conditions.   

 

Not anymore.  As of last year, most of it has been upgraded to a smooth-as-silk, well-paved and well-marked highway (Daniel Inouye highway).  Speed limit is 55 mph almost the entire stretch.  It's an easy cruise in good conditions.

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