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Tropical threats headed for the Hawaiian islands


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Much stronger than I thought

Significant Wind Levels...
Level	Wind Direction	Wind Speed
1003mb (Surface)	110° (from the ESE)	75 knots (86 mph)
991mb	115° (from the ESE)	84 knots (97 mph)
971mb	110° (from the ESE)	79 knots (91 mph)
964mb	120° (from the ESE)	87 knots (100 mph)
955mb	120° (from the ESE)	80 knots (92 mph)
946mb	120° (from the ESE)	80 knots (92 mph)
936mb	120° (from the ESE)	73 knots (84 mph)
903mb	125° (from the SE)	65 knots (75 mph)
850mb	135° (from the SE)	69 knots (79 mph)
697mb	140° (from the SE)	68 knots (78 mph)

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Really?  You are going to have to report what you find. 

 

Definitely will. I'm going to do a first-pass drive-by of a random selection of residences that my company insures to further refine our claims and loss projections. We call it our triage process. I went down to MS/LA for Isaac a couple years ago so this will be my second one. Should definitely be interesting!

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Either way, it will be interesting to see how Iselle interacts with the terrain of the big island. A direct hit will destroy the inner core of Iselle. However, Hawaii is probably not big enough to destroy the entire low-level circulation. Expect to see some pretty significant jumping in the center fixes post-landfall as the low-level circulation tries to reorganize on the lee side of the highest terrain. 

This is what I'm looking forward to watching unfold since this is rather unprecedented.  It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see what happens when it hits the big island and 14,000 feet of mountain.

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This is what I'm looking forward to watching unfold since this is rather unprecedented.  It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see what happens when it hits the big island and 14,000 feet of mountain.

 

Chris,

 Please check your PM's. Thanks.

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This is what I'm looking forward to watching unfold since this is rather unprecedented.  It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see what happens when it hits the big island and 14,000 feet of mountain.

 

I am anxious to see this unfold as well.  

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A 78 mph gust was recorded already on Mauna kea.

 

That location is exaggerated though due to its location......it came from here

 

CFHT - highly exaggerated wind speed from an elevated tower compressed between two domes

 

This should be a good place to watch the Army base at 6300 ft

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PHSF.html

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That location is exaggerated though due to its location......it came from here

 

CFHT - highly exaggerated wind speed from an elevated tower compressed between two domes

 

This should be a good place to watch the Army base at 6300 ft

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PHSF.html

Here are some observations from other summit locations

 

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/current/

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I am anxious to see this unfold as well.  

 

 

This is what I'm looking forward to watching unfold since this is rather unprecedented.  It's going to be absolutely fascinating to see what happens when it hits the big island and 14,000 feet of mountain.

 

definitely will be interesting. and given that the storm is moving towards the west, basic dynamics based on the movement across the mountains I think says a bit of a jump to the north (poleward) on the lee-side for Iselle. but does that jump happen at this low a latitude with a tropical-based system compared to more baroclinic systems?

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definitely will be interesting. and given that the storm is moving towards the west, basic dynamics based on the movement across the mountains I think says a bit of a jump to the north (poleward) on the lee-side for Iselle. but does that jump happen at this low a latitude with a tropical-based system compared to more baroclinic systems?

I recall this happening with a typhoon crossing a mountainous region of Taiwan, and forming a lee cyclone on the coast (i've been looking for this, but can't find it).

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That location is exaggerated though due to its location......it came from here

 

CFHT - highly exaggerated wind speed from an elevated tower compressed between two domes

 

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/PHSF.html

 

I disagree that it's a bad location, the telescopes are 250 yards apart and it is by far the most exposed station of the cluster. All the other stations are likely more or less in turbulent flow than than this one.

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"I lowered the advisory intensity to 65 knots because the various RECON intensity estimate techniques in the 23Z pass gave 66 kt, 67 kt, and 68 kt, with 90% of a max flight level wind of 72 knots giving 65 knots. This made going with 70 kt in the 00z intensity a stretch, but we round up slightly for the sake of safety and likely undersampling. Since the pressure continues to rise slowly, and the satellite and radar presentations of the system looking increasingly sheared, I could not justify retaining the 70 knot intensity at 03z.

If you are finding that the CPHC webpage is slow, you should try hitting refresh. Many times we find that people are getting old info on the page because their browser is loading from the cache. There have been many times I've been on the phone with people insisting the page is old when I'm looking at the our page from the office and it's current. The goal here is to publish the complete advisory package by :45, but the discussion almost always goes last as we put together our thoughts. The package is not officially "late" until synoptic + 3 hour."-from Storm2k on Iselle's weakening.

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Timmer also has his live stream up on TVN. Looks like he is beachside in downtown Hilo.

 

These guys are a hoot!  Love that they are live streaming in route to the projected landfall location...at least it appears they are.  Lots of familiar views along the way too. 

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