olafminesaw Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hydro estimates coming in @ around 6.3"/hr ScreenHunter_86 Aug. 06 19.24.png What makes a hurricane more/ less wet? I would think that with all the dry air it would not have rainfall as impressive as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 What makes a hurricane more/ less wet? I would think that with all the dry air it would not have rainfall as impressive as that. Iselle has been annular for quite some time so its been able to sustain itself quite nicely. The recon obs from this afternoon were rather impressive for a storm that looks kind of ragged, but I imagine the decreasing shear and increasing SST's will mitigate the weakening process, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle seems to be back on track, and with the mesoscale influences of those twin 13000' volcanic peaks, some weird things can happen. It could bounce north, south, who knows. Will be fascinating to see unfold. I lived in Kona for 12 years and every system that got close to the Island either went North or South regardless of the forecasted track. I learned not to get excited about tropical systems after being disappointed time after time and residents tended to shrug their shoulders and ignore them. I see this one is taking a more Southern track taking it over Volcano's National Park and South Point. We'll see how that pans out. Wouldn't be a bit surprised if it went even further South as it gets closer. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The cirrus canopy is clearing out. Iselle still appears to be a formidable cyclone at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The cirrus canopy is clearing out. Iselle still appears to be a formidable cyclone at this hour. Iselle's DvorakT number is higher than Julio's now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle is really looking good now on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I lived in Kona for 12 years and every system that got close to the Island either went North or South regardless of the forecasted track. I learned not to get excited about tropical systems after being disappointed time after time and residents tended to shrug their shoulders and ignore them. I see this one is taking a more Southern track taking it over Volcano's National Park and South Point. We'll see how that pans out. Wouldn't be a bit surprised if it went even further South as it gets closer. . This one may "rewrite the rule", just like Hurricane Georges did for the "Puerto Rico shield" in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This one may "rewrite the rule", just like Hurricane Georges did for the "Puerto Rico shield" in 1998. Well I guess we will see. I have friends that still live there so I am anxious to hear from them on whether they are taking this seriously. So far no response...which might be a good sign that they are busy getting prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I would assume CPAC has more ACE than the Atlantic this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle looks to finally be shaking off the dry air on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle looks to finally be shaking off the dry air on the east side. Stable cirrus layer to the north seems to be less influential now. Interesting trends to say the least and a little unprecedented for a Hawaiian landfall from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Stable cirrus layer to the north seems to be less influential now. Interesting trends to say the least and a little unprecedented for a Hawaiian landfall from the east. If the current forecast verifies, it's completely unprecedented. The Big Island hasn't even had a TS landfall since 1958, and the only known hurricanes to hit Hawaii (Dot, Iwa, Iniki) all hit the more western islands from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 If the current forecast verifies, it's completely unprecedented. The Big Island hasn't even had a TS landfall since 1958, and the only known hurricanes to hit Hawaii (Dot, Iwa, Iniki) all hit the more western islands from the south. Yep! I was there when Iniki hit Kauai. We got the outer bands of winds and tremendous storm surge in Kona. If this does hit the Big Island it will be unprecedented for sure and I don't think people will be so complacent for future storms. I am watching this one closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 08072014_0230_goes15_x_vis2km_09EISELLE_80kts-982mb-175N-1467W_100pc.jpg Looks like the eye is filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Dear sirs at NCEP, At the MAG web site, you have tropical model plots of MSLP, SST, and 10m wind..... without 10m wind. That's pretty sexist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 If the current forecast verifies, it's completely unprecedented. The Big Island hasn't even had a TS landfall since 1958, and the only known hurricanes to hit Hawaii (Dot, Iwa, Iniki) all hit the more western islands from the south. A hurricane in August 1871 apparently hit Kohala on the Big Island and also struck Maui. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1800s.php?Kohala Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 A hurricane in August 1871 apparently hit Kohala on the Big Island and also struck Maui. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1800s.php?Kohala Perhaps, but we don't know the intensity of that, do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Perhaps, but we don't know the intensity of that, do we? It was still a hurricane impact according to damage accounts. Hundreds of buildings were destroyed (granted, we they may have not been well built), coconut palms were snapped, fruit trees were broken, etc. Thus hurricane conditions on the Big Island are not "unprecedented." We just lack reliable intensity data prior to the late 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This angle of approach is Very rare though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 DMAX should get things moving again, nice ring of convection on the east side. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeswestpacusir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 3 eyes in one animated loop. So nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This is rare to see 3 hurricanes that are within a 2,000 mile radius from Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Iselle shrunk quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 This angle of approach is Very rare though? The angle isn't rare, but what is rare is the conditions that are keeping this system together and on it's current path. Most systems encounter wind shear and cooler SST's which tear them apart with little impact to the B.I., or they stay at this angle and take a Northern track as they near the Island avoiding it altogether or at most, brushing the East side with the outer edges.. That doesn't appear to be the case this time. This is going to be interesting to say the least. Only wish I still lived there so I could experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Looks like Hawaii is already starting to become affected by the outermost bands of Iselle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Well you know it's serious when Jim Cantori is live reporting from Hilo, Hawaii on TWC. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Well you know it's serious when Jim Cantori is live reporting from Hilo, Hawaii on TWC. LOL! I'm not surprised they sent him once it became pretty clear that Iselle wasn't going to weaken much before landfall. This should be a good hit for the big island without an outside chance of it being something more on the lines of historic. And then you have Julio coming in behind it which might scrape the northern most Islands. The 06z HWRF dumps as much as 12"+ of rain on the big island. Not sure what that would mean for the flooding situation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texankitcat Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I'm not surprised they sent him once it became pretty clear that Iselle wasn't going to weaken much before landfall. This should be a good hit for the big island without an outside chance of it being something more on the lines of historic. And then you have Julio coming in behind it which might scrape the northern most Islands. The 06z HWRF dumps as much as 12"+ of rain on the big island. Not sure what that would mean for the flooding situation there. That much rain is significant for the B.I.. Granted, Hilo is one of the wettest places on earth, but the impact of that much rain will cause mudslides all along the only highway that wraps around the Island through the lush rainforests with steep ravines. . Even much less significant systems have caused road closures from mudslides and falling rocks. Hilo Bay and Hilo Town will surely be impacted from storm surge. Much of the population in Kona live in homes built high on the slopes of Hualalai with very steep roads. It will be interesting to se the impacts there with wind and rain.. Ali'i Drive floods anytime there is a gully washer, and with the storm surge breaching the seawalls I expect lots of flooding there. Kohala/Kamuela is like a wind tunnel as it is, between two mountains so I anticipate significant impact there without having mountain buffers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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