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Tropical threats headed for the Hawaiian islands


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Special Advisory

 

WTPA33 PHFO 061648
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP092014
700 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014

...HURRICANE ISELLE CLOSING IN ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 144.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN KAUAI COUNTY AND THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
ADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.9 WEST. ISELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE
OUTER WINDS OF ISELLE WILL REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL REACH THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING ALONG SOME COASTLINES
STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. 

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
 


 

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She is right where the S is on the western side of the island. She will have the benefit initally of offshore winds on the front side but once it passes to the west the winds will shift to out of the southwest.

EP092014W.gif

The big island consists of two 13000' volcanos!! Anything that makes it over that will be trashed . If she were on the windward side say in Kona then maybe some worry. But all in all the Islands are pretty resilient as sitting in the middle of the pacific they get hit pretty hard in winter by fronts.

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The big island consists of two 13000' volcanos!! Anything that makes it over that will be trashed . If she were on the windward side say in Kona then maybe some worry. But all in all the Islands are pretty resilient as sitting in the middle of the pacific they get hit pretty hard in winter by fronts.

I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it.

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I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it.

 

I'd pay good money to have the luck of a strong TS/minimal hurricane hitting my honeymoon destination. 

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I'd pay good money to have the luck of a strong TS/minimal hurricane hitting my honeymoon destination. 

That's because you're a weather weenie like the rest of us here. Most of the civilized world doesn't think that way. I wouldn't be so sure that we're only talking about a minimal hurricane at best given improving conditions, warmer waters ahead and the resiliency of the LLC.

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I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it.

How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on.

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How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on.

Yeah that blows. Hopefully Julio misses well to the north for your sake.

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She is right where the S is on the western side of the island. She will have the benefit initally of offshore winds on the front side but once it passes to the west the winds will shift to out of the southwest.

 

EP092014W.gif

 

The forecast track has slowly been trending south and it could just clip the Big Island.

 

How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on.

 

As of right now, Julio is expected to pass a little north of the state.

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That's because you're a weather weenie like the rest of us here. Most of the civilized world doesn't think that way. I wouldn't be so sure that we're only talking about a minimal hurricane at best given improving conditions, warmer waters ahead and the resiliency of the LLC.

 

There's still a lot of dry air.

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The forecast track has slowly been trending south and it could just clip the Big Island.

 

 

As of right now, Julio is expected to pass a little north of the state.

 

Iselle seems to be back on track, and with the mesoscale influences of those twin 13000' volcanic peaks, some weird things can happen.  It could bounce north, south, who knows.  Will be fascinating to see unfold.

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URPN12 KNHC 061944
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   EP092014
A. 06/19:30:20Z
B. 17 deg 05 min N
  145 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 2937 m
D. 72 kt
E. 049 deg 21 nm
F. 129 deg 99 kt
G. 049 deg 22 nm
H. 984 mb
I. 9 C / 3053 m
J. 13 C / 3051 m
K. NA / NA
L. Open SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0309C ISELLE             OB 11
MAX FL WIND 99 KT 049 / 22 NM 19:24:00Z
Sonde surface wind 090 /06 kts
Broken clouds below in center

 

18Z early tracks for Julio:

 

 

Edit to add...noticeable shift to a more WNW track observed for Iselle...

 

swir-animated.gif
 

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Yeah maybe at 11 AM, CPHC should issue Hurricane Watches for the Big Island.  I had a feeling that Iselle would have a slight bump in intensity during this time of lower shear.  The water is warm enough for strengthening.  While the dry air can affect Iselle....it is quite remarkable how resilient annular hurricanes are to dry air, and Iselle is proving that point as it regains its annularity.  It should still weaken by the time it makes landfall after peaking at maybe 85 KT, possibly landfalling around 65 or 70 KT at the most.

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Hurricane Warning issued for Hawaii County:

 

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Hawaii County. A Tropical

Storm Warning has been issued for Maui County.

 

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County

 

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Oahu
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The eyewall of Iselle appears to either be collapsing or shrinking dramatically. She's still fighting dry air on the Eastern side but deep convection continues to fire and wrap around the Western half. A bit unsure right now what's occurring structurally.

30 mile wide close eye wall via the last VDM suggests it is likely a cirrus canopy. 

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