IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 What part of the Big Island? Chances are probs increasing that it misses it. She is right where the S is on the western side of the island. She will have the benefit initally of offshore winds on the front side but once it passes to the west the winds will shift to out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Special Advisory WTPA33 PHFO 061648TCPCP3BULLETINHURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 26NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014700 AM HST WED AUG 06 2014...HURRICANE ISELLE CLOSING IN ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...SUMMARY OF 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.9N 144.9WABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAIIABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAIIMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* HAWAII COUNTYA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* MAUI COUNTY* OAHUA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER TODAY.INTERESTS IN KAUAI COUNTY AND THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDSSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FORADDITIONAL ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC FOR YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITORPRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 700 AM HST...1700 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.9 WEST. ISELLE ISMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERALMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THEOUTER WINDS OF ISELLE WILL REACH THE EASTERNMOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BYTHURSDAY AFTERNOON.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHERGUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY...ANDISELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140MILES...220 KM.THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE BIG ISLAND OFHAWAII THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHUAND MAUI COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ISELLE WILL REACH THE MAIN HAWAIIANISLANDS TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING DAMAGING ALONG SOME COASTLINESSTARTING LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE ARE EXPECTED TOREACH THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY AND SPREAD TO THE REMAINDER OF THESTATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSELIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM HST.$$FORECASTER HOUSTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Surprised the TS warning isn't accompanied by a hurricane watch given warm SSTs, low shear, and a type of system that steady-states better than most (i.e., inner core survived the shear episode yesterday). They are really hanging their hat on climatology, it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 She is right where the S is on the western side of the island. She will have the benefit initally of offshore winds on the front side but once it passes to the west the winds will shift to out of the southwest. The big island consists of two 13000' volcanos!! Anything that makes it over that will be trashed . If she were on the windward side say in Kona then maybe some worry. But all in all the Islands are pretty resilient as sitting in the middle of the pacific they get hit pretty hard in winter by fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The big island consists of two 13000' volcanos!! Anything that makes it over that will be trashed . If she were on the windward side say in Kona then maybe some worry. But all in all the Islands are pretty resilient as sitting in the middle of the pacific they get hit pretty hard in winter by fronts. I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it. I'd pay good money to have the luck of a strong TS/minimal hurricane hitting my honeymoon destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 I'd pay good money to have the luck of a strong TS/minimal hurricane hitting my honeymoon destination. That's because you're a weather weenie like the rest of us here. Most of the civilized world doesn't think that way. I wouldn't be so sure that we're only talking about a minimal hurricane at best given improving conditions, warmer waters ahead and the resiliency of the LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 I'm not really worried about life threatening issues. I'm more worried about a ruined honeymoon and not being able to get back. I can think of worse places to be stranded. The other issue is that Julio is right behind it. How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on. Yeah that blows. Hopefully Julio misses well to the north for your sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 She is right where the S is on the western side of the island. She will have the benefit initally of offshore winds on the front side but once it passes to the west the winds will shift to out of the southwest. The forecast track has slowly been trending south and it could just clip the Big Island. How do you think I feel. I might spend my honeymoon stranded at JFK airport trying to get to Hawaii. Flight is right around the time of the approach of Julio into Oahu. What a nightmare. If I was already there, I'd be saying bring it on. As of right now, Julio is expected to pass a little north of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 That's because you're a weather weenie like the rest of us here. Most of the civilized world doesn't think that way. I wouldn't be so sure that we're only talking about a minimal hurricane at best given improving conditions, warmer waters ahead and the resiliency of the LLC. There's still a lot of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueheronNC Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The forecast track has slowly been trending south and it could just clip the Big Island. As of right now, Julio is expected to pass a little north of the state. Iselle seems to be back on track, and with the mesoscale influences of those twin 13000' volcanic peaks, some weird things can happen. It could bounce north, south, who knows. Will be fascinating to see unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 URPN12 KNHC 061944VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP092014A. 06/19:30:20ZB. 17 deg 05 min N 145 deg 33 min WC. 700 mb 2937 mD. 72 ktE. 049 deg 21 nmF. 129 deg 99 ktG. 049 deg 22 nmH. 984 mbI. 9 C / 3053 mJ. 13 C / 3051 mK. NA / NAL. Open SWM. C30N. 12345 / 07O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF309 0309C ISELLE OB 11MAX FL WIND 99 KT 049 / 22 NM 19:24:00ZSonde surface wind 090 /06 ktsBroken clouds below in center 18Z early tracks for Julio: Edit to add...noticeable shift to a more WNW track observed for Iselle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Iselle is forecast to be right on the verge of weakening to a TS at 0Z (in just a few hours), continuing a steady weakening trend.... that doesn't look to be on track right now. I agree that hurricane watches might be prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Given the stable low-level environment, I wonder how much of those flight level winds are reaching the ocean surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Yeah maybe at 11 AM, CPHC should issue Hurricane Watches for the Big Island. I had a feeling that Iselle would have a slight bump in intensity during this time of lower shear. The water is warm enough for strengthening. While the dry air can affect Iselle....it is quite remarkable how resilient annular hurricanes are to dry air, and Iselle is proving that point as it regains its annularity. It should still weaken by the time it makes landfall after peaking at maybe 85 KT, possibly landfalling around 65 or 70 KT at the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Given the stable low-level environment, I wonder how much of those flight level winds are reaching the ocean surface? Recon is a little lower than I thought, but the microwave presentation is impreeisve, so I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hurricane Warning issued for Hawaii County: A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Hawaii County. A TropicalStorm Warning has been issued for Maui County. Summary of watches and warnings in effect... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Maui County A tropical storm watch is in effect for...* Oahu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Hawaii has been under a hurricane warning since Iniki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think Hawaii has been under a hurricane warning since Iniki. Fernanda 93 prompted Hurricane Warnings to the Aloha state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The track of Julio has been adjusted to the S via the last Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Fernanda 93 prompted Hurricane Warnings to the Aloha state. Jimena in 2003 came very close to South Point as a hurricane, but I'm not sure if a Hurricane watch or warning was ever issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Jimena in 2003 came very close to South Point as a hurricane, but I'm not sure if a Hurricane watch or warning was ever issued. A watch was IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 A watch was IIRC. Yup- Hurricane watch/TS Warning. It passed more than 115 miles south of South Point as a weakening tropical storm: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/2003.php#jimena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Reed Timmer and Cantore will both be chasing tomorrow in Hawaii. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Reed Timmer and Cantore will both be chasing tomorrow in Hawaii. ScreenHunter_86 Aug. 06 18.46.png Great picture. With the floater satellite not having Hawaii in the frame (so no land mass), it's hard to get a sense of relative size. They're little! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 Hydro estimates coming in @ around 6.3"/hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The eyewall of Iselle appears to either be collapsing or shrinking dramatically. She's still fighting dry air on the Eastern side but deep convection continues to fire and wrap around the Western half. A bit unsure right now what's occurring structurally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 6, 2014 Share Posted August 6, 2014 The eyewall of Iselle appears to either be collapsing or shrinking dramatically. She's still fighting dry air on the Eastern side but deep convection continues to fire and wrap around the Western half. A bit unsure right now what's occurring structurally. 30 mile wide close eye wall via the last VDM suggests it is likely a cirrus canopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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