2014-15 winter outlook

[Cold Rain]

Anyone else seen this on facebook about a record breaking winter?

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

It's like somebody sat down and said, "Now how can I be more dramatic than anyone else out there?" And that article is what they came up with.

[1234snow]

Anyone else seen this on facebook about a record breaking winter?

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

 

Brick, that site is a satirical news website kind of like the Onion but most of the time the Onion has a funnier element to the stories. I've seen them fool many people with stories before. I wish people would catch that before they share it on FB and start up some big rumors.

[calculus1]

Brick, you gotta do some more research, man.  Here's Brad P's take on this rampant rumor:

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=733535270052265

 

[jburns]

Brick, that site is a satirical news website kind of like the Onion but most of the time the Onion has a funnier element to the stories. I've seen them fool many people with stories before. I wish people would catch that before they share it on FB and start up some big rumors.

 

 "In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past."

 

OMG Waycross could get as much as 5".  

[1234snow]

 "In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past."

 

OMG Waycross could get as much as 5".  

It will take an eternity for the skies and swamp over Waycross to heal after the brutal winter of 2014-15.

[superjames1992]

Here you go people:

http://www.albanyherald.com/news/2014/sep/06/old-farmers-almanac-predicting-eastern-us/

 

So the mountains will be cold and wet while the Piedmont will be cold and dry while the beaches are cold and snowy.

 

[superjames1992]

Anyone else seen this on facebook about a record breaking winter?

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/

 

I know that's a satire site, but holy ****.  It's hilarious to read.

 

 

Chances are you will hear a lot about El Niño in the next month or two. Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.

 

 

I want to become a doctor of global weather sciences.

 

 

“For the sake of comparison to the past winter, lets say that your area received a total of twenty inches of accumulative snow for the season. Because this year the snowfall is predicted to start by the end of September or the beginning of October, you can expect to multiply that number by up to five, ten, maybe even twenty times in some areas. In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past. This is the type of winter the American public needs to prepare for. Several meteorologists are saying not to buy into what the models are showing. I can tell you from forty years of scientific weather research, they are doing you a disservice,” Dr. Scvediok told the Associated Press on Friday. “The Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Midwestern states will definitely get hit the hardest.”

 

 

What is "accumulative snow", BTW? 

 

 

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”

 

   

 

 

 

Dr. Scvediok says to be prepared for a storm that could come as early as the end of September, and plan for the entire winter season, which this year, he says, will more than likely spread into next June.

 

[toxictwister00]

 Want more fun maps to view? Check out DJF 76-7, another very cold weak Nino with +PDO and -NAO averaged over DJF. During that cold winter, there were articles out in respectable publications like Time and Newsweek about the coming new ice age. I'll never forget that winter. Savannah, which pretty rarely even gets one, got TWO measurable snows in January of '77! Going back to the 1850's, I'm aware of only one other entire winter getting two measurable! That other one was actually in the 1850's.

 

Edit: Correction needed due to my forgetting...Savannah got two measurable in 1985-6. They got 0.3" on 1/27/1986 and 1.1" on 3/1/1986.

1989 had two snows but they were from different winters, including the historic pre-Christmas snow.

 

Man, sometimes I wish I could have been alive back in the 70s and 80s to experience some of those cold snaps. Just for the sake of knowing what sub-zero temperatures actually felt like.

[Brick Tamland]

So the mountains will be cold and wet while the Piedmont will be cold and dry while the beaches are cold and snowy.

 

 

 

So eastern NC will get more snow again than RDU? I wouldn't be surprised.

[machetemoonlight]

Man, sometimes I wish I could have been alive back in the 70s and 80s to experience some of those cold snaps. Just for the sake of knowing what sub-zero temperatures actually felt like.

stick your head in the freezer... 

[packbacker]

JB had a column out today talking about how the recently released seasonal Euro still showing cold and talked about the difference of why the nino's of cold winters of 2003/2010 differed from the warm winters 92/98/2007.  He talked about how region 1.2 had warm anomalies which triggered the warmer winters...For example..

 

Colder winters of 2003/2010...

 

 

warmer winters 1998/2007

 

 

And the freezer that was the winter of 77/78...you can see the similarities of the cold winter nino's versus the warm winter nino's...

 

 

For this winter, this is what the CFS and JAMSTEC is predicting, which looks close to our cold winter nino's....I guess now I am starting to see why all the fuss about a cold winter, although its close...

 

 

 

[Solak]

FWIW, a friend up in Calgary, Alberta posted a pic tonight where she has about 2" of snow on their deck! It's coming... someday

[griteater]

That almost guarantees that the UoW PDO for August will still be a fairly solid positive.

 

Univ of Wash Aug PDO is in at +0.67.  I wonder if the NOAA PDO covers a larger latitudinal area...say from 20N to 60N in the Pacific...and maybe that's why its number is closer to 0.0

 

Here are the Univ of Wash PDO numbers for 2014:

Jan: 0.30

Feb: 0.38

Mar: 0.97

Apr: 1.13

May: 1.80

Jun: 0.82

Jul: 0.70

Aug: 0.67

 

This is after a 3 and 1/2 year run of negative PDO numbers from mid 2010 to end of 2013

[GaWx]

Univ of Wash Aug PDO is in at +0.67.  I wonder if the NOAA PDO covers a larger latitudinal area...say from 20N to 60N in the Pacific...and maybe that's why its number is closer to 0.0

 

Here are the Univ of Wash PDO numbers for 2014:

Jan: 0.30

Feb: 0.38

Mar: 0.97

Apr: 1.13

May: 1.80

Jun: 0.82

Jul: 0.70

Aug: 0.67

 

This is after a 3 and 1/2 year run of negative PDO numbers from mid 2010 to end of 2013

 

 The +0.67 isn't chickenfeed +PDO phasewise. It is near the 82nd percentile for August +PDO's going back to 1900.

 

 There have been only 20 Augusts with a higher PDO.  18 of the 20 subsequent DJF's averaged a +PDO.

 

 There have been 9 Augusts with a PDO in the +0.40 to +0.66 range, I.e., just a little lower. Six of those nine went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF.

 

  Six of those Augusts were within +0.40 to +1.00 and were within new/oncoming El Nino. Five of those six went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF.

 

 I'm still going with an 80% chance for the U of Washington upconing DJF to average a +PDO.

[AUProud]

Hello everyone! First let me say that I am a novice and rarely post, but I enjoy reading this forum a lot and have learned a lot. My son sent me an article about the upcoming winter and it's pretty extreme. I would love to get your thoughts if. TIA. 

Meteorologists Predict Record-Shattering Snowfall Coming Soon

Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

Posted on September 6, 2014 by Raoul Stockton in Health/Fitness, Science/Tech

SILVER SPRING, Maryland - 

Chances are you will hear a lot about El Niño in the next month or two. Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.

“For the sake of comparison to the past winter, lets say that your area received a total of twenty inches of accumulative snow for the season. Because this year the snowfall is predicted to start by the end of September or the beginning of October, you can expect to multiply that number by up to five, ten, maybe even twenty times in some areas. In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past. This is the type of winter the American public needs to prepare for. Several meteorologists are saying not to buy into what the models are showing. I can tell you from forty years of scientific weather research, they are doing you a disservice,” Dr. Scvediok told the Associated Press on Friday. “The Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Midwestern states will definitely get hit the hardest.”

Edward F. Blankenbaker, Senior Administrator of Meteorologists, also told the media that this will be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of snowy winter.

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”

Along with the mention of severe winter weather, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) predicts supply and demand could cause shortages, causing the prices of bread and milk to increase substantially. FDA spokesperson Rebecca Miller suggests alternatives in preparation of the coming months.

“We are encouraging that you go out and purchase bulk amounts of dry, powdered milk which can be stored in your cupboards. This will prevent frantic trips to grocery stores and super markets as the onslaught of storms begin to fall upon your respected region.” Miller said. “As far as bread, we suggest you buy as much as you can efficiently store in your freezer. Bread can be frozen and thawed without compromising the integrity of its quality. Preparations such as these are crucial and the fact that technology has brought us to a time and place in which such events can be predicted is quite remarkable. So stock up on your powdered milk and fill your freezer with loaves of bread, because once the blankets of snow begin to fall, brave souls will confront the elements to raid stores of these products like some sort of scavenger hunt. Don’t be a part of the Snowpocolypse, it’s a dangerous battlefield of crazed-shopping, winter-bitten weather zombies.”

[GaWx]

Hello everyone! First let me say that I am a novice and rarely post, but I enjoy reading this forum a lot and have learned a lot. My son sent me an article about the upcoming winter and it's pretty extreme. I would love to get your thoughts if. TIA. 

Meteorologists Predict Record-Shattering Snowfall Coming Soon

Bread & Milk Prices Expected To Soar

Posted on September 6, 2014 by Raoul Stockton in Health/Fitness, Science/Tech

SILVER SPRING, Maryland - 

Chances are you will hear a lot about El Niño in the next month or two. Meteorologists and weather science experts at the National Weather Service (NWS) say that there is a 99% chance that the we will start to see a massive cold-front sooner in the year than has ever happened, which will produce not just record-breaking snowfall, but according to Dr. Boris Scvediok, a doctor of global weather sciences, record shattering snow storms across the board, affecting the entire United States.

“For the sake of comparison to the past winter, lets say that your area received a total of twenty inches of accumulative snow for the season. Because this year the snowfall is predicted to start by the end of September or the beginning of October, you can expect to multiply that number by up to five, ten, maybe even twenty times in some areas. In the worst zones, you could see 50 times the amount of snow you’ve had in the past. This is the type of winter the American public needs to prepare for. Several meteorologists are saying not to buy into what the models are showing. I can tell you from forty years of scientific weather research, they are doing you a disservice,” Dr. Scvediok told the Associated Press on Friday. “The Northeast, Ohio Valley, and Midwestern states will definitely get hit the hardest.”

Edward F. Blankenbaker, Senior Administrator of Meteorologists, also told the media that this will be a once-in-a-lifetime kind of snowy winter.

“Pretty much everyone will see snow like they never have in their lives. Most younger people don’t even know what an actual blizzard looks like, but by the end of March, they will be seasoned survivalists,” Blankenbaker said. “Everyone needs to make sure they have their weather emergency kits prepared and ready to go. There will undoubtably be mass power outages, which along with freezing temperatures and enough snowfall to immobilize entire cities, will most likely, and unfortunately, be a very dangerous recipe. Safety always comes first and the time to prepare is right now.”

Along with the mention of severe winter weather, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) predicts supply and demand could cause shortages, causing the prices of bread and milk to increase substantially. FDA spokesperson Rebecca Miller suggests alternatives in preparation of the coming months.

“We are encouraging that you go out and purchase bulk amounts of dry, powdered milk which can be stored in your cupboards. This will prevent frantic trips to grocery stores and super markets as the onslaught of storms begin to fall upon your respected region.” Miller said. “As far as bread, we suggest you buy as much as you can efficiently store in your freezer. Bread can be frozen and thawed without compromising the integrity of its quality. Preparations such as these are crucial and the fact that technology has brought us to a time and place in which such events can be predicted is quite remarkable. So stock up on your powdered milk and fill your freezer with loaves of bread, because once the blankets of snow begin to fall, brave souls will confront the elements to raid stores of these products like some sort of scavenger hunt. Don’t be a part of the Snowpocolypse, it’s a dangerous battlefield of crazed-shopping, winter-bitten weather zombies.”

 

 Ignore it except for entertainment. It is fake.

[packbacker]

 The +0.67 isn't chickenfeed +PDO phasewise. It is near the 82nd percentile for August +PDO's going back to 1900.

 

 There have been only 20 Augusts with a higher PDO.  18 of the 20 subsequent DJF's averaged a +PDO.

 

 There have been 9 Augusts with a PDO in the +0.40 to +0.66 range, I.e., just a little lower. Six of those nine went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF.

 

  Six of those Augusts were within +0.40 to +1.00 and were within new/oncoming El Nino. Five of those six went on to have a +PDO averaged over DJF.

 

 I'm still going with an 80% chance for the U of Washington upconing DJF to average a +PDO.

 

With a building nino, +PDO, -QBO what could possibly go wrong in the next 3 months    I feel like we are in Vegas at the blackjack table holding 20 and dealer is showing 6.

[Cold Rain]

With a building nino, +PDO, -QBO what could possibly go wrong in the next 3 months    I feel like we are in Vegas at the blackjack table holding 20 and dealer is showing 6.

 

All in then?

[DopplerWx]

 Ignore it except for entertainment. It is fake.

keep your head in the sand while i make a fortune off break and milk futures.  

[Cold Rain]

I picked up my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday!  It has snow for inland areas the end of December and a couple of times through mid-January.  No more references to snow beyond those.  It has December at 5F below average and January at 4F below average (or vice versa...can't remember).  It has February at average.  Precip looks to be below average in January and February but above in December.  This is all for our region, Region 4, which includes most of the SE outside of the mountains and Florida.

[GaWx]

keep your head in the sand while i make a fortune off break and milk futures.

That article had me lol'ing bigtime! That is my kind of humor.

By the way, when you have time, let me know because I make a mean bread-milk casserole and would love to exchange recipes with you.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I picked up my copy of the Old Farmers Almanac yesterday!  It has snow for inland areas the end of December and a couple of times through mid-January.  No more references to snow beyond those.  It has December at 5F below average and January at 4F below average (or vice versa...can't remember).  It has February at average.  Precip looks to be below average in January and February but above in December.  This is all for our region, Region 4, which includes most of the SE outside of the mountains and Florida.

Does Region 4 include my area (West Georgia) as well as Alabama ? If not, then what does it say for my region ?

[packbacker]

All in then?

Assuming those 3 things don't fall apart, have to. Allan just tweeted some really cool QBO/nino stats too.

[toxictwister00]

Does Region 4 include my area (West Georgia) as well as Alabama ? If not, then what does it say for my region ?

 

You're in region 8, this is what it says...

 

Winter will be much colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be near or slightly above normal in the north, but significant snowfall is unlikely in central or southern areas. The coldest periods will occur in late December and January, with the snowiest periods across the north in mid- and late December and early January

 

Here's the link btw..



http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/8

[Snowless in Carrollton]

You're in region 8, this is what it says...

 

Winter will be much colder than normal, with below-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be near or slightly above normal in the north, but significant snowfall is unlikely in central or southern areas. The coldest periods will occur in late December and January, with the snowiest periods across the north in mid- and late December and early January

 

Here's the link btw..



http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/8

Oh thanks for the link. That's interesting.... I'm in a comletely different region than Atlanta even though we are only 45 miles apart, yet I am in the same region as the bootheel of Missouri. That makes sense. And since when was any part of Missouri considered the "deep south" ? If I were only a few miles further east I would be in region 4 and would have a better chance of snow this winter.

[Cold Rain]

Oh thanks for the link. That's interesting.... I'm in a comletely different region than Atlanta even though we are only 45 miles apart, yet I am in the same region as the bootheel of Missouri. That makes sense. And since when was any part of Missouri considered the "deep south" ? If I were only a few miles further east I would be in region 4 and would have a better chance of snow this winter.

 

It's the Almanac.  It's not like any of it really matters.  Haha!  I mean, how is it meteorologically likely that west of the Apps is cold and snowy, east of the Apps is cold and snowy, and the Apps are cold and rainy??

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It's the Almanac.  It's not like any of it really matters.  Haha!  I mean, how is it meteorologically likely that west of the Apps is cold and snowy, east of the Apps is cold and snowy, and the Apps are cold and rainy??

I wonder how or where they get their forecasts from ?

[Cold Rain]

I wonder how or where they get their forecasts from ?

 

They have a secret formula.  Seriously...that's what they say.  They do share some of their non-secret formula methodology, though.  They talked about looking at the PDO, Nino, and NAO...I think they talked about the PDO.  They see a weak Nino, at best, with a mostly -NAO.  They also talk about using Solar activity and indicate that it should play a role in keeping temps down, given the low solar output.  They boast an 80% accuracy.  I think, though, you could make a forecast for a broad region and pick and chose points in that region at which to measure against and pretty much always come up with an 80% accuracy, based upon your data selection.

[Cold Rain]

Assuming those 3 things don't fall apart, have to. Allan just tweeted some really cool QBO/nino stats too.

 

Share some tweetage man!

[packbacker]

Share some tweetage man!

 

Here you go....

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  2h

Here is an interesting winter climo indice stat. Since 1950 17 Dec-Feb periods average between 0.4 and 1.4. Or weak/mod El Nino. Of those 17

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  2h

8 had a QBO that averaged negative in the same period Of those 8 winters all 8 had a DJF -AO, and 7/8 had a -NAO 1979-80 exception with 0.1

 

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx  2h

We are expected a weak/mod El Nino, and a -QBO this winter This stat and also some past QBO research, suggests frequent blocking this winter