2014-15 winter outlook

[GaWx]

Washington's PDO indices have been in sharp decline since May.  I suspect when they're updated index comes out for August, it will include another decline.  We're in a largely negative PDO period (it's just fluctuating currently), so I don't suspect it staying strongly positive through the winter.  

 

The sharp decline for UoW was from May to June (+1.80 to +0.82). It only barely dropped from June to July and still left July at a fairly solidly positive number of +0.70 (~74th percentile). Based on past patterns, the chances for a UoW +PDO averaged over DJF is high (~4 in 5).

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

The sharp decline for UoW was from May to June (+1.80 to +0.82). It only barely dropped from June to July and still left July at a fairly solidly positive number of +0.70 (~74th percentile). Based on past patterns, the chances for a UoW +PDO averaged over DJF is high (~4 in 5).

 

Strongly agree....

[Brick Tamland]

From the U.S. National Weather Service

 

 

65% Chance El Nino will develop by winter

 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center continued the El Niño Watch today in its scheduled monthly update. El Niño is favored to emerge in September-November and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter. Next update: October 9.

 

El Niño, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, is known for influencing weather across the U.S. and other parts of the globe. The last El Niño was in 2009-2010.

[GaStorm]

 

From the U.S. National Weather Service

 

 

65% Chance El Nino will develop by winter

 

The NWS Climate Prediction Center continued the El Niño Watch today in its scheduled monthly update. El Niño is favored to emerge in September-November and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter. Next update: October 9.

 

El Niño, which is marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, is known for influencing weather across the U.S. and other parts of the globe. The last El Niño was in 2009-2010.

 

I'm rooting for the weak El Niño. Hopefully this winter can produce some classic gulf storms and a -NAO as well.

[packbacker]

I'm rooting for the weak El Niño. Hopefully this winter can produce some classic gulf storms and a -NAO as well.

 

For RDU, dating back the past 50 years we average 5.3" of snow with weak Nino's and 8.8" with moderate to strong Nino's.  We have had 8 weak Nino's in the past 50 years and 5 of those years were terrible snowfall wise for RDU (3" or less).   After looking at this I am very bearish for RDU this winter.  If we were to have a moderate Nino (+1 or higher) we would be in a better spot, 7 out of the 10 years were above average and 4 of those 10 years were 11" or greater.

 

Although RDU is a snow hole capital of the SE so maybe everyone else (ATL/GSO/CLT/ATL/PGV) does better with weak Nino's.  The moderate Nino is not going to happen, maybe a neutral positive ENSO is better for us, will look at numbers later.

[GaStorm]

For RDU, dating back the past 50 years we average 5.3" of snow with weak Nino's and 8.8" with moderate to strong Nino's.  We have had 8 weak Nino's in the past 50 years and 5 of those years were terrible snowfall wise for RDU (3" or less).   After looking at this I am very bearish for RDU this winter.  If we were to have a moderate Nino (+1 or higher) we would be in a better spot, 7 out of the 10 years were above average and 4 of those 10 years were 11" or greater.

 

Although RDU is a snow hole capital of the SE so maybe everyone else (ATL/GSO/CLT/ATL/PGV) does better with weak Nino's.  The moderate Nino is not going to happen, maybe a neutral positive ENSO is better for us, will look at numbers later.

It may be better for certain areas then. I remember Larry said it was good for ATL. I always thought if it was strong it was tougher to get cold air further south. If the Atlantic is good that rule probably doesn't apply.

[GaWx]

It may be better for certain areas then. I remember Larry said it was good for ATL. I always thought if it was strong it was tougher to get cold air further south. If the Atlantic is good that rule probably doesn't apply.

 

 I think there's a lot of confusion between correlations to cold and correlations to wintry precip. For the best shot at a really cold winter in much of the E US, history says that the best bet is a weak Nino, +PDO, and -NAO combo. You can still get really cold with a strong Nino, +PDO, and great blocking (-NAO/-AO) as 2009-10 shows. However, that is the only strong Nino on record to produce a top 12 cold ATL winter (since 1879-80). OTOH, there have been many more weak Ninos that were top 12 cold there including the top three coldest. I suspect that to be the case for much of the SE US, too. That being said, wintry precip. at KATL is much more of a crapshoot as usual. ATL has done fairly well overall with wintry precip. (including ZR) ON AVERAGE with Ninos in general averaging more than neutral or Nina (though WEAK Ninas, alone, have done pretty well with overall wintry precip. and neutral negatives have done the best by far with ZR, alone). Winters with the most wintry precip.usually were from one to occasionally two major storms. One thing is for sure at ATL: weak ENSO (weak Nino/Nina/neutral) has done far better than moderate to strong ENSO with regard to ZR. Some very cold weak Ninos were not snowy vs. averages because they were so dominated by cold/dry NW flow.

 

 

2/23/12: 12 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO

 

    Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO

1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN

2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN

3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN

4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN/NN

5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP

6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………WEN/MEN

7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN

8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN

9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN

10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN

11) 1894-5………….-4.3…………WLN

12) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN

[Cold Rain]

Larry, your first sentence is the key and should be reread. I've read about everything you have written on these boards about cold/weak el ninos. You have really only talked about this in the context of temps. It's easy to correlate cold temps and snow in your mind, but that is not what you have suggested.

Anyway, thanks for all of your research and your willingness to share it!

[Brick Tamland]

For RDU, dating back the past 50 years we average 5.3" of snow with weak Nino's and 8.8" with moderate to strong Nino's.  We have had 8 weak Nino's in the past 50 years and 5 of those years were terrible snowfall wise for RDU (3" or less).   After looking at this I am very bearish for RDU this winter.  If we were to have a moderate Nino (+1 or higher) we would be in a better spot, 7 out of the 10 years were above average and 4 of those 10 years were 11" or greater.

 

Although RDU is a snow hole capital of the SE so maybe everyone else (ATL/GSO/CLT/ATL/PGV) does better with weak Nino's.  The moderate Nino is not going to happen, maybe a neutral positive ENSO is better for us, will look at numbers later.

 

I hope we get a big one this year. Last year was good for the number of snow events we had, but we have not had a big one in a while. The big ones last year were all to the west and east of Raleigh.

[GaStorm]

 

 I think there's a lot of confusion between correlations to cold and correlations to wintry precip. For the best shot at a really cold winter in much of the E US, history says that the best bet is a weak Nino, +PDO, and -NAO combo. You can still get really cold with a strong Nino, +PDO, and great blocking (-NAO/-AO) as 2009-10 shows. However, that is the only strong Nino on record to produce a top 12 cold ATL winter (since 1879-80). OTOH, there have been many more weak Ninos that were top 12 cold there including the top three coldest. I suspect that to be the case for much of the SE US, too. That being said, wintry precip. at KATL is much more of a crapshoot as usual. ATL has done fairly well overall with wintry precip. (including ZR) ON AVERAGE with Ninos in general averaging more than neutral or Nina (though WEAK Ninas, alone, have done pretty well with overall wintry precip. and neutral negatives have done the best by far with ZR, alone). Winters with the most wintry precip.usually were from one to occasionally two major storms. One thing is for sure at ATL: weak ENSO (weak Nino/Nina/neutral) has done far better than moderate to strong ENSO with regard to ZR. Some very cold weak Ninos were not snowy vs. averages because they were so dominated by cold/dry NW flow.

 

 

2/23/12: 12 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO

 

    Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO

1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN

2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN

3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN

4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN/NN

5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP

6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………WEN/MEN

7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN

8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN

9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN

10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN

11) 1894-5………….-4.3…………WLN

12) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN

 

Hey Larry. Thanks for providing this info. Can you tell me if we have a higher frequency of major winter storms with a +PDO? I thought you mentioned that before but wanted to confirm.

[packbacker]

I hope we get a big one this year. Last year was good for the number of snow events we had, but we have not had a big one in a while. The big ones last year were all to the west and east of Raleigh.

 

Well we are super due, it's been 11 years since our last 10"+ season, which breaks a 100+ year old record.  We typically average a 10"+ season every 3 years.  We average 3-4 seasons every decade with 10"+ seasons.  This bodes well for us for the rest of this decade considering we haven't had one and it's half over.

[Brick Tamland]

Well we are super due, it's been 11 years since our last 10"+ season, which breaks a 100+ year old record.  We typically average a 10"+ season every 3 years.  We average 3-4 seasons every decade with 10"+ seasons.  This bodes well for us for the rest of this decade considering we haven't had one and it's half over.

 

It would also be nice to get a big storm that gives us 6 inches or more of snow.

[GaWx]

Hey Larry. Thanks for providing this info. Can you tell me if we have a higher frequency of major winter storms with a +PDO? I thought you mentioned that before but wanted to confirm.

 

GAStorm,

  Good memory! In Atlanta, there is a higher frequency of major S/IP during a +PDO month. I'd call it a modest/partial correlation. Back when I did the research, I found about a +0.50 PDO month for the average for when there was major S/IP at KATL. I'm not at all talking about major ZR here. Major ZR and a +PDO don't seem to even be partially positively correlated.

 There also appears to be a good correlation of major S/IP (probably higher) with a -NAO month (avg. ~-0.90). However, there appears to be no correlation of major ZR with a -NAO.

 As already stated, there is a partial correlation between Ninos and major S/IP at KATL. Also, there is a pretty strong correlation between neutral negative ENSO and major ZR there (last winter was NN and had major ZR).

 

Edit: Keep in mind that if there is a +PDO and -NAO dominating this winter along with weak Nino, that doesn't necessarily mean a major S/IP at Atlanta (say 3.5"+) is likely since it is still almost always a crapshoot to get something big since only about one in four winters get one 3.5"+ S/IP from a single storm there. However, we'd have an above average shot at it (probably higher than one in three chance (maybe as high as ~40%)and that's just for the airport...would be even higher on northside..perhaps approaching 50%?) and a really good shot at at least one to two nonmajor accumulating S/IP's.

[GaStorm]

GAStorm,

  Good memory! In Atlanta, there is a higher frequency of major S/IP during a +PDO month. I'd call it a modest/partial correlation. Back when I did the research, I found about a +0.50 PDO month for the average for when there was major S/IP at KATL. I'm not at all talking about major ZR here. Major ZR and a +PDO don't seem to even be partially positively correlated.

 There also appears to be a good correlation of major S/IP (probably higher) with a -NAO month (avg. ~-0.90). However, there appears to be no correlation of major ZR with a -NAO.

 As already stated, there is a partial correlation between Ninos and major S/IP at KATL. Also, there is a pretty strong correlation between neutral negative ENSO and major ZR there (last winter was NN and had major ZR).

I will gladly take a major S/IP over ZR any day! Thanks again Larry for the great info you provide!

[dsaur]

 

 I think there's a lot of confusion between correlations to cold and correlations to wintry precip. For the best shot at a really cold winter in much of the E US, history says that the best bet is a weak Nino, +PDO, and -NAO combo. You can still get really cold with a strong Nino, +PDO, and great blocking (-NAO/-AO) as 2009-10 shows. However, that is the only strong Nino on record to produce a top 12 cold ATL winter (since 1879-80). OTOH, there have been many more weak Ninos that were top 12 cold there including the top three coldest. I suspect that to be the case for much of the SE US, too. That being said, wintry precip. at KATL is much more of a crapshoot as usual. ATL has done fairly well overall with wintry precip. (including ZR) ON AVERAGE with Ninos in general averaging more than neutral or Nina (though WEAK Ninas, alone, have done pretty well with overall wintry precip. and neutral negatives have done the best by far with ZR, alone). Winters with the most wintry precip.usually were from one to occasionally two major storms. One thing is for sure at ATL: weak ENSO (weak Nino/Nina/neutral) has done far better than moderate to strong ENSO with regard to ZR. Some very cold weak Ninos were not snowy vs. averages because they were so dominated by cold/dry NW flow.

 

 

2/23/12: 12 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO

 

    Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO

1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN

2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN

3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN

4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN/NN

5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP

6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………WEN/MEN

7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN

8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN

9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN

10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN

11) 1894-5………….-4.3…………WLN

12) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN

 

Because we get the rains.  Always borderline with the temps, exhibit the zr, but if there is no rain then the cold is just cold   I'm still waiting on the back to back to back to back, all winter deep cold and deep moisture.  Maybe this is the year of the Armadillo sleet/sn coats

[dsaur]

In fact, I'd say wind direction is as important, or more important than the cold, or the moisture.  I've seen so many cold rains and I'm only just realizing how that wsw , or a strong ene wind can make all the difference for us here.  Without the right wind we just end up wet, and miserable..... with the right wind a botched Atl tv station call is often the outcome.  I think now I go with rain,  then wind direction/depth, then cold, when it's 2am and 32.3 and raining.  Get the right wind and it'll fight off the warm nose for you, and that's usually what it takes around here..and it doesn't have to be freezing. How many times have I seen the wind turn around as the storm nears and bingo, it's the z devil.  Keep a strong, consistent wind and it's surf city.....most times for someone else, but still....lol.   T

[mackerel_sky]

There is a very fascinating article on The Albany ( GA) Herald from today . I can't link , on mobile. They were talking about -The Old Farmers Almanac, the 223 year old one! They called for refriger-nation , this winter, East of the Rockies and into the South. They spoke with the editor last week and she said her meteorologists were saying they were seeing deviations so far below normal, they were afraid to go that low with their predictions!! With that said, their forecast could be much colder than the very cold they are already forecasting! Could be a fun winter!

Edit: here's their forecast for region 4, temp departures from 30 year avg:

5 below avg Nov

4 below avg Dec

5 below avg Jan

Avg for Feb

Precip 1.5 below avg for these months TOTAL

So cold and dry? According to their formulations!

[Quixotic1]

There is a very fascinating article on The Albany ( GA) Herald from today . I can't link , on mobile. They were talking about -The Old Farmers Almanac, the 223 year old one! They called for refriger-nation , this winter, East of the Rockies and into the South. They spoke with the editor last week and she said her meteorologists were saying they were seeing deviations so far below normal, they were afraid to go that low with their predictions!! With that said, their forecast could be much colder than the very cold they are already forecasting! Could be a fun winter!

Edit: here's their forecast for region 4, temp departures from 30 year avg:

5 below avg Nov

4 below avg Dec

5 below avg Jan

Avg for Feb

Precip 1.5 below avg for these months TOTAL

So cold and dry? According to their formulations!

Sounds like 76-77

[GaWx]

There is a very fascinating article on The Albany ( GA) Herald from today . I can't link , on mobile. They were talking about -The Old Farmers Almanac, the 223 year old one! They called for refriger-nation , this winter, East of the Rockies and into the South. They spoke with the editor last week and she said her meteorologists were saying they were seeing deviations so far below normal, they were afraid to go that low with their predictions!! With that said, their forecast could be much colder than the very cold they are already forecasting! Could be a fun winter!

Edit: here's their forecast for region 4, temp departures from 30 year avg:

5 below avg Nov

4 below avg Dec

5 below avg Jan

Avg for Feb

Precip 1.5 below avg for these months TOTAL

So cold and dry? According to their formulations!

 

 I don't know what they're considering, but if we get a dominating -NAO with the currently likely weak Nino and +PDO (last winter like that was way back in 1977-8), I wouldn't be shocked to see very cold deviations similar to what is stated above (similar to if not colder than 2009-10). If it really ends up that cold for Nov.-Jan., I could see there being some NG shortages for the late winter since we'll be starting with a much lower storage level come 11/1/14 than recent years. If so, look out above, pricewise.

 Also, if this occurs, could we get some freak, Waycross/Miami Beach/Nassau snow as was the case in 1976-7? Well, that is a crap shoot to predict. I don't know about Miami Beach/Nassau, but perhaps places like Waycross and Gainseville could luck into some flakes??  

[Cold Rain]

Here you go people:

http://www.albanyherald.com/news/2014/sep/06/old-farmers-almanac-predicting-eastern-us/

[packbacker]

 I don't know what they're considering, but if we get a dominating -NAO with the currently likely weak Nino and +PDO (last winter like that was way back in 1977-8), I wouldn't be shocked to see very cold deviations similar to what is stated above (similar to if not colder than 2009-10). If it really ends up that cold for Nov.-Jan., I could see there being some NG shortages for the late winter since we'll be starting with a much lower storage level come 11/1/14 than recent years. If so, look out above, pricewise.

 Also, if this occurs, could we get some freak, Waycross/Miami Beach/Nassau snow as was the case in 1976-7? Well, that is a crap shoot to predict. I don't know about Miami Beach/Nassau, but perhaps places like Waycross and Gainseville could luck into some flakes??  

 

That sure was a cold winter....

 

 

 

[packbacker]

Looking more at the temps from winter of 77-78, just insane...Jan/Feb 2010 isn't even in the same ballpark for cold as Jan/Feb 1978 was.  It's hard to imagine we will ever see anything like this again in our lifetime.

 

1978 air temp v/s 2010

 

 

 

[Cold Rain]

^ What was snowfall like that winter in the SE?

[valkhorn]

Talk about wishful thinking. The Farmer's Almanac is predicting 'cold and rain' for the highest elevations of the Appalachians. I don't think so, Tim.

[Cold Rain]

Talk about wishful thinking. The Farmer's Almanac is predicting 'cold and rain' for the highest elevations of the Appalachians. I don't think so, Tim.

That's Tim "the Tool Man" Taylor, C/O Tool Time...

Yeah, I don't see how you have cold and snowy at the coast, cold and dry in the Piedmont, and cold and wet in the mountains, all while having the coldest winter in a generation.

[packbacker]

^ What was snowfall like that winter in the SE?

Very snowy...11" for RDU...

[GaWx]

Looking more at the temps from winter of 77-78, just insane...Jan/Feb 2010 isn't even in the same ballpark for cold as Jan/Feb 1978 was.  It's hard to imagine we will ever see anything like this again in our lifetime.

 

1978 air temp v/s 2010

 

 

 Want more fun maps to view? Check out DJF 76-7, another very cold weak Nino with +PDO and -NAO averaged over DJF. During that cold winter, there were articles out in respectable publications like Time and Newsweek about the coming new ice age. I'll never forget that winter. Savannah, which pretty rarely even gets one, got TWO measurable snows in January of '77! Going back to the 1850's, I'm aware of only one other entire winter getting two measurable! That other one was actually in the 1850's.

 

Edit: Correction needed due to my forgetting...Savannah got two measurable in 1985-6. They got 0.3" on 1/27/1986 and 1.1" on 3/1/1986.

1989 had two snows but they were from different winters, including the historic pre-Christmas snow.

[Cold Rain]

Very snowy...11" for RDU...

Nice! Thanks man.

[DaculaWeather]

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/07/the-2014-15-el-nino-part-15-september-2014-update-still-seeing-mixed-signals/

[Brick Tamland]

Anyone else seen this on facebook about a record breaking winter?

http://empirenews.net/meteorologists-predict-record-shattering-snowfalls-coming-soon-bread-milk-prices-expected-to-soar/