2014-15 winter outlook

[mackerel_sky]

I tell you what , if you have not read the write up on the great arctic outbreak of Feb 1899, definately check it out! It was written awhile ago by Paul Kocin, just google it, I'm on mobile, but that read will give you chills and get you in the mood for winter! The board would crash, I guarantee, with that two week stretch of cold and snow! It would be amazing to witness a stretch of winter weather like that

[dsaur]

Heh... We saw webs almost as big as yours down here in Columbus last autumn and we had a few nice events including the flurry/sleet event in Auburn and inch or so near Roanoke, AL the Tuesday before Thanksgiving! THAT was special. And was only an appetizer for things to come.

 

As far as this year goes, I'm noticing the webs already in spots I saw them last year. To be honest, I hadn't really seen or noticed them in 2011 or 2012... Both those winters were meh to torch here. lol!

 

I wasn't in Columbus to see if they were in the same spot for the 2010/2011 season as I started here October 25th. It'll be interesting to see if these creepy crawlers are any decent at giving us a heads up as to how the following winter will pan out.

 

Honestly, I thought the spider webs were there last autumn due to us not seeing much rain from mid-August to November. The same thing is happening this year as our rain totals have kind of flat-lined... I suspect that's more of the reason why we're seeing the HUGE spider webs.

 

That said.... Here's hoping they bring another good to blockbuster winter for us all!!!!

Hey, CMan!  I've been here since 99 and I've never seen webs on steroids like those last year.  And they were everywhere around here.  If I were to see that again, and throw in Rosie's mantis, I think the 6 inch sleet on Jan 7 is doable, for sure, lol.  I just don't want any more zr. Horrid, horrid stuff...and if those webs were predicting zr, I'd just as soon not see any, and do without the near 0 readings, although that part was fun   T

[packbacker]

Great write up...although would be nice to be sure that a nino does develop, seems like every week the odds drop.

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-15-outlook.html?m=1

[Kory]

I would take the farmers almanac with a grain of salt.  It blew this summers forecast badly, saying oppressive heat.  

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/19/farmers-almanac-oppressive-summer-forecast-is-laughably-wrong/

 

Still way to early to know if we'll see a brutal winter like last year.  Sure all the players are back, but it doesn't mean we'll see the same out come.  I'm looking at 2004-2005 winter in fact.  Weak oncoming Nino, warm pool in Northeast Pacific, and +PDO.  That winter was a nonevent.  

 

[toxictwister00]

I would take the farmers almanac with a grain of salt.  It blew this summers forecast badly, saying oppressive heat.  

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/19/farmers-almanac-oppressive-summer-forecast-is-laughably-wrong/

 

Still way to early to know if we'll see a brutal winter like last year.  Sure all the players are back, but it doesn't mean we'll see the same out come.  I'm looking at 2004-2005 winter in fact.  Weak oncoming Nino, warm pool in Northeast Pacific, and +PDO.  That winter was a nonevent.  

 

Well, not completely a non-eventful winter here. We had a nasty ice storm in January 2005, but other than that you're right it was a boring winter.

[Kory]

Well, not completely a non-eventful winter here. We had a nasty ice storm in January 2005, but other than that you're right it was a boring winter.

Yeah I should've worded it better.  As far as Texas and Louisiana, they had the unforgettable Christmas Day snow along the Gulf Coast.  But nothing else really stuck out that year.  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I would take the farmers almanac with a grain of salt.  It blew this summers forecast badly, saying oppressive heat.  

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/19/farmers-almanac-oppressive-summer-forecast-is-laughably-wrong/

 

Still way to early to know if we'll see a brutal winter like last year.  Sure all the players are back, but it doesn't mean we'll see the same out come.  I'm looking at 2004-2005 winter in fact.  Weak oncoming Nino, warm pool in Northeast Pacific, and +PDO.  That winter was a nonevent.  

 

AL had a major, major ice storm that winter. I'm talking the eastern half of AL.

[FallsLake]

AL had a major, major ice storm that winter. I'm talking the eastern half of AL.

2004-2005 was not awful here in Central NC(and west NC). There were a lot of 1-2" snow events and a couple of small ice events. East of Raleigh did very well, especially in December. They would love a repeat.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

[Snowless in Carrollton]

2004-2005 was not awful here in Central NC(and west NC). There were a lot of 1-2" snow events and a couple of small ice events. East of Raleigh did very well, especially in December. They would love a repeat.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

There was a pretty good snowfall in NC in 2004, but I guess it was in the 2003-2004 winter. The winter of 2003-2004 really sucked where I live in GA. 2002-2003 sucked too. In fact, after the 4" snow we had in January 2002, it was 6 years before we had a snowfall of more than 1". 2003-2007 was a horrible period for snowlovers in GA.

[FallsLake]

There was a pretty good snowfall in NC in 2004, but I guess it was in the 2003-2004 winter. The winter of 2003-2004 really sucked where I live in GA. 2002-2003 sucked too. In fact, after the 4" snow we had in January 2002, it was 6 years before we had a snowfall of more than 1". 2003-2007 was a horrible period for snowlovers in GA.

GA is just in a bad location(normally) to cash in on storms. You get the cold air but your just too far from the Atlantic and the developing storms. What you want is a developing storm in the central gulf to run up through SE GA through central SC/NC. Now I would hate that because that would be another 93 storm where I only got 1.5" and people to the west were dumped on.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

GA is just in a bad location(normally) to cash in on storms. You get the cold air but your just too far from the Atlantic and the developing storms. What you want is a developing storm in the central gulf to run up through SE GA through central SC/NC. Now I would hate that because that would be another 93 storm where I only got 1.5" and people to the west were dumped on.

I had about 10" from the 93 storm. The biggest snow I've seen in my lifetime. The ATL airport only had 4" in that storm though. ATL airport hasn't had a snowfall more than 4" in 30 years !

[toxictwister00]

I had about 10" from the 93 storm. The biggest snow I've seen in my lifetime. The ATL airport only had 4" in that storm though. ATL airport hasn't had a snowfall more than 4" in 30 years !

 

Why do you keep repeating that falsified statement? 

 

KATL >4" in one storm last 30 years:

 

1/2011: 4.4"

3/2009: 4.2"

1/2002: 4.6"

3/1993: 4.2"

1/1992: 5.0"

1/1988: 4.2" (almost all IP, which means that this 4.2" was the equivalent of ~8-10" of snow)

 

So, KATL has had six >4" S/IP's in the last 30 years or about one every five years. This is actually very close to the longterm average. I consider snow of 3.5" to be major at KATL. I (in Dunwoody) did get ~~8" in the 3/1993 blizzard fwiw.

 

 In addition, KATL has had FIVE major ZR's during the last 30 years. All five of these have been over the last 15 years or about one every three years since 2000. During that period, that was above the average frequency.

 

If you had said not >5", you would have been correct.

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Why do you keep repeating that falsified statement? 

 Sorry, I mean't more than 5". Meanwhile, pretty much every airport east of the rockies and along and north of I-20 has had at least one or two snowfalls greater than 5" in the last 30 years, except the ATL airport of course. I'm sure cities such as Dallas, Shreveport, Jackson, Birmingham, and Columbia have all had a snowfall greater than 5" since 1984. Maybe Atlanta's relatively high elevation is to blame.

 

Was 1983 the last year the ATL airport had a snowfall greater than 5" ? I was thinking there was a big snowfall in March of that year. So that would be going on 32 years.

 

Actually I think the ATL airport has only had 2 snowfall greater than 5" since 1949. Both coming in consecutive years, 1982 and 1983. And the airport has NEVER had a snowfall of 8" or more, since they started keeping records at the current location in 1949.

 

FOUR out of ATL's top 10 snowfall events since 1949 occurred in the 1980s.

[Bob Chill]

04-05 could as easily be a good analog as a terrible one. Dec was a raging +AO so there was no mechanism to deliver substantial cold. Even with the -epo it couldn't overcome the +AO keeping everything bottled up in Canada. There was a period of a +PNA during the month that delivered some cold in the east but when the pna flipped - before Christmas we were all toasty well into January.  

 

Moving forward the -epo remained on the means through the month of Jan but nothing else was present to help deliver cold and decent storm track. Pac air dominated the season as a whole for almost everyone in the conus. 

 

I suppose the question is whether the combination of  various crappy setups was driven by Enso or not. I personally think it was more due to chaos. Just like last winter being so cold and productive for many of us. We maximized an otherwise not so great pattern. There was no classic blocking basically through the entire winter and we got really lucky that the raging +AO in December decided to collapse early but the pattern overall was not a good one and I wouldn't expect a similar season to be nearly as prolific in the snow and cold dept in the east. 

 

I think if anything the 04-05 and 06-07 weak ninos got hosed by a raging +AO in December. There is some hard evidence that when the Dec AO finishes above 1.00 on the means it continues through January with only a couple exceptions (Jan 1980 and 2014). I have a ton of data and graphs on this topic but the short story is a +AO of 1.5 in December can be a death knell for Jan. The data supports the opposite as well. -AO Decembers are likely to be followed by a cold Jan in the east. 

 

Here's a plot showing Jan temp anoms for all years where Dec had an AO of +1 or higher since 1950:

 

 

 

And another showing DJF:

 

 

 

 

I really have no opinion on the upcoming winter. I see all kinds of snow and cold forecasts coming out for the east but that's a pretty bold call considering a weak Nino is the most likely outcome at this time. I think a more important thing to track would be the October snow cover increase data. If it supports a -AO for December and verifies then we can really start talking about cold/snow prospects. 

 

 

 

[FallsLake]

04-05 could as easily be a good analog as a terrible one. Dec was a raging +AO so there was no mechanism to deliver substantial cold. Even with the -epo it couldn't overcome the +AO keeping everything bottled up in Canada. There was a period of a +PNA during the month that delivered some cold in the east but when the pna flipped - before Christmas we were all toasty well into January.  

 

Moving forward the -epo remained on the means through the month of Jan but nothing else was present to help deliver cold and decent storm track. Pac air dominated the season as a whole for almost everyone in the conus. 

 

I suppose the question is whether the combination of  various crappy setups was driven by Enso or not. I personally think it was more due to chaos. Just like last winter being so cold and productive for many of us. We maximized an otherwise not so great pattern. There was no classic blocking basically through the entire winter and we got really lucky that the raging +AO in December decided to collapse early but the pattern overall was not a good one and I wouldn't expect a similar season to be nearly as prolific in the snow and cold dept in the east. 

 

I think if anything the 04-05 and 06-07 weak ninos got hosed by a raging +AO in December. There is some hard evidence that when the Dec AO finishes above 1.00 on the means it continues through January with only a couple exceptions (Jan 1980 and 2014). I have a ton of data and graphs on this topic but the short story is a +AO of 1.5 in December can be a death knell for Jan. The data supports the opposite as well. -AO Decembers are likely to be followed by a cold Jan in the east. 

 

 

 

I really have no opinion on the upcoming winter. I see all kinds of snow and cold forecasts coming out for the east but that's a pretty bold call considering a weak Nino is the most likely outcome at this time. I think a more important thing to track would be the October snow cover increase data. If it supports a -AO for December and verifies then we can really start talking about cold/snow prospects. 

Thanks Bob! Really pulling for that -AO. 04-05 was not that bad for my area, but 06-07 was terrible (a little over 2" total). NH snow cover should start building any time now; especially in Siberia. GFS from last night even had some accumulations showing up in Quebec at day 6.    

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

[Bob Chill]

Thanks Bob! Really pulling for that -AO. 04-05 was not that bad for my area, but 06-07 was terrible (a little over 2" total). NH snow cover should start building any time now; especially in Siberia. GFS from last night even had some accumulations showing up in Quebec at day 6.    

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

I dug up an old data set i did back in 2011. You guys will have to fill in your own snow totals obviously to figure out which years were better than others. For my area, weak nino conditions are not very friendly in the snow department even with help from the high latitudes. The snow stats are DCA's which typically comes in 25% lower than my yard in any given year even though I'm only 25 miles away. Even with that, the weak Nino years were nothing to jump for joy about on this list. 

 

 

 

Our best met, Wes, did a scatter plot of all 4" dc snows and it was really apparent how important a -ao is for us in the MA to get a decent snow. The AO is more important than the NAO here. It would be cool if one of you guys could do the same plot for a few major cities in the SE to get an idea of the best ingredients for a decent snowfall. I'm willing to best the AO is important but the NAO may be more down your way because a suppressed storm track is what you guys root for. 

[FallsLake]

I dug up an old data set i did back in 2011. You guys will have to fill in your own snow totals obviously to figure out which years were better than others. For my area, weak nino conditions are not very friendly in the snow department even with help from the high latitudes. The snow stats are DCA's which typically comes in 25% lower than my yard in any given year even though I'm only 25 miles away. Even with that, the weak Nino years were nothing to jump for joy about on this list. 

 

-AO Dec aonaopnaenso.JPG

 

 

Our best met, Wes, did a scatter plot of all 4" dc snows and it was really apparent how important a -ao is for us in the MA to get a decent snow. The AO is more important than the NAO here. It would be cool if one of you guys could do the same plot for a few major cities in the SE to get an idea of the best ingredients for a decent snowfall. I'm willing to best the AO is important but the NAO may be more down your way because a suppressed storm track is what you guys root for. 

The funny thing about last year was the indices were predominantly bad(+NAO, +AO, -PNA) except the epo. It stayed negative through all of January and seemed to be the only thing that saved us from a torch. In fact it seemed to help give us a decent winter.  

[Bob Chill]

The funny thing about last year was the indices were predominantly bad(+NAO, +AO, -PNA) except the epo. It stayed negative through all of January and seemed to be the only thing that saved us from a torch. In fact it seemed to help give us a decent winter.

It was an incredibly lucky year all things considered. December's -epo overwhelmed everything overall but when the lowest heights were out west we got warm easy. The ridging did connect into the PNA domain at times but numerically it didn't show as much. It was a very progressive and volatile month. We we're in the 80's for a couple days a week before Christmas. Jan did feature a solid -ao combined with a -epo/+pna so it was more of a classic cold east look. All cylinders fired to deliver cold and chances of snow. Split flow really helped you guys down south.

Having the PV wobbling around between Hudson and Greenland made it easy to deliver when things amplified. It's been a while since the coldest air in the NH was consistently on our side of the globe. The epo ridging connected all the way to scandanavia a couple times and it just kept locking the PV over Canada so the cold was never too far away.

July/August had the same placement and this summer had a very unusual amount of cool/dry continental air make it pretty far south multiple times. I'm not sure everyone realizes how lucky we were last year and we really did maximize an otherwise so-so pattern. Part of the reason I'm skeptical about this coming winter is how lucky do we think we can get? Mod nino's are one thing to set higher expectations but weak ones don't really have the stats to back up high expectations.

[Supercane]

Central NC is very much capable of getting good snows without a predominantly -NAO in the monthly means (see 99-00, 01-02, 03-04, 08-09, 13-14 for the most recent examples). I haven't examined the NAO status during big storms that closely, but I seem to recall some old maps from RaleighWx showing a variable / neutral NAO being the best setup. I think those same maps showed that ridging over AK is much more crucial than a -NAO. 

 

Edit: Obviously I'd rather have a -NAO than a +NAO, but I think it's overrated in importance for those of us in the SE, regarding bigger snows. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It was an incredibly lucky year all things considered. December's -epo overwhelmed everything overall but when the lowest heights were out west we got warm easy. The ridging did connect into the PNA domain at times but numerically it didn't show as much. It was a very progressive and volatile month. We we're in the 80's for a couple days a week before Christmas. Jan did feature a solid -ao combined with a -epo/+pna so it was more of a classic cold east look. All cylinders fired to deliver cold and chances of snow. Split flow really helped you guys down south.

Having the PV wobbling around between Hudson and Greenland made it easy to deliver when things amplified. It's been a while since the coldest air in the NH was consistently on our side of the globe. The epo ridging connected all the way to scandanavia a couple times and it just kept locking the PV over Canada so the cold was never too far away.

July/August had the same placement and this summer had a very unusual amount of cool/dry continental air make it pretty far south multiple times. I'm not sure everyone realizes how lucky we were last year and we really did maximize an otherwise so-so pattern. Part of the reason I'm skeptical about this coming winter is how lucky do we think we can get? Mod nino's are one thing to set higher expectations but weak ones don't really have the stats to back up high expectations.

 

We here in the Carolinas do better with weak Ninos than any other index. it may be due to the suppressed storm track that was mentioned earlier. Weak Nino, +Pna, -Nao is the perfect recipe for a solid cold and snowy winter here.

[toxictwister00]

 Sorry, I mean't more than 5". Meanwhile, pretty much every airport east of the rockies and along and north of I-20 has had at least one or two snowfalls greater than 5" in the last 30 years, except the ATL airport of course. I'm sure cities such as Dallas, Shreveport, Jackson, Birmingham, and Columbia have all had a snowfall greater than 5" since 1984. Maybe Atlanta's relatively high elevation is to blame.

 

Was 1983 the last year the ATL airport had a snowfall greater than 5" ? I was thinking there was a big snowfall in March of that year. So that would be going on 32 years.

 

Actually I think the ATL airport has only had 2 snowfall greater than 5" since 1949. Both coming in consecutive years, 1982 and 1983. And the airport has NEVER had a snowfall of 8" or more, since they started keeping records at the current location in 1949.

 

FOUR out of ATL's top 10 snowfall events since 1949 occurred in the 1980s.

 

Hmm, I honestly don't know, but I don't believe elevation has anything to do with it. If anything, I would think higher elevation would help, not hurt. I've observed and noticed a lot in some of the past few snow storms over the past 4 years or so Hartsfield seems to get warm nosed often. It's rarely if ever a pure snowfall down there, it's always sleet pellets and/or freezing rain occasionally mixing in which obviously has an effect on snowfall totals. It's usually the opposite on the NW side of town where I am. Sure, we get the occasional mixing of sleet and sometimes freezing rain in what are forecasted to be purely snow events, but it's usually not to the extent or duration that it is at Hartsfield Int'l.

[dsaur]

 Sorry, I mean't more than 5". Meanwhile, pretty much every airport east of the rockies and along and north of I-20 has had at least one or two snowfalls greater than 5" in the last 30 years, except the ATL airport of course. I'm sure cities such as Dallas, Shreveport, Jackson, Birmingham, and Columbia have all had a snowfall greater than 5" since 1984. Maybe Atlanta's relatively high elevation is to blame.

 

Was 1983 the last year the ATL airport had a snowfall greater than 5" ? I was thinking there was a big snowfall in March of that year. So that would be going on 32 years.

 

Actually I think the ATL airport has only had 2 snowfall greater than 5" since 1949. Both coming in consecutive years, 1982 and 1983. And the airport has NEVER had a snowfall of 8" or more, since they started keeping records at the current location in 1949.

 

FOUR out of ATL's top 10 snowfall events since 1949 occurred in the 1980s.

Snow in Ga is always hit and miss, with the whole half state rarely getting hit with big totals.  So hitting the air port, which has it's own anomalous weather, is like pin the tail on the donkey, while drunk, blindfolded, and sleepwalking, lol.  Air port weather has little to do with weather in the counties around it, in many cases.   T

[dsaur]

Hmm, I honestly don't know, but I don't believe elevation has anything to do with it. If anything, I would think higher elevation would help, not hurt. I've observed and noticed a lot in some of the past few snow storms over the past 4 years or so Hartsfield seems to get warm nosed often. It's rarely if ever a pure snowfall down there, it's always sleet pellets and/or freezing rain occasionally mixing in which obviously has an effect on snowfall totals. It's usually the opposite on the NW side of town where I am. Sure, we get the occasional mixing of sleet and sometimes freezing rain in what are forecasted to be purely snow events, but it's usually not to the extent or duration that it is at Hartsfield Int'l.

We are too close to the gulf for wide spread frozen events.  Too close to the furnace.  It takes deep cold, and a low running by in Fla. to get a good coverage.  Otherwise, as you say, there is just too much variation in temps, with many a warm nose as the storm nears.  Many times it's sporadic pockets  of cold that give Ga. a hit and miss event.  Hampton will always get flurries when the rest of us around here get nada.  Like wise if there are flurries in N. Atl it will always be Marietta that will get them.  Don't know why, just one of the mysteries of Ga snow, lol.   Probably more to do with icy, frozen magic lay lines, than elevation until you are far enough out of Atl.   Although it holds for Hampton with tornadoes too, lol.  T

[packbacker]

Bored...so thought I would look at the JAMSTEC, which I thought was JB's go to model?  I am sure he posted this on WB somewhere, but haven't been reading him lately.

 

JAMSTEC did fairly well for predicting temps for June-Aug....

 

 

JAMSTEC prediction from March 2014 for June-Aug...

 

 

This is what it's predicting for DJF 2014-15....fun to look at and feed the hype.

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Brutal winter incoming, Pack.  Get ready.  We're not going to get screwed to the west and to the east all winter long either.  This is going to be a basin-wide good old fashioned winter.  Thanks for posting that!

[mackerel_sky]

Those maps make me warm and fuzzy inside! They were extremely accurate for the summer, and those winter month precip and temp maps look tantalizing , to say the least!! I would begin preparations now: chopping wood, getting your propane, digging out sleds, sticking up on rock salt, and getting all your basketball in now, winter is going to bring the pain this year!

[griteater]

The Pacific and Atlantic are both on fire (N Hemisphere)...weird.  That's a neutral PDO look in the north Pacific since it's warm everywhere.

 

I prefer the Univ. of Washington PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO value for August is in at 0.02....dead solid neutral.

 

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

[FallsLake]

Bored...so thought I would look at the JAMSTEC, which I thought was JB's go to model?  I am sure he posted this on WB somewhere, but haven't been reading him lately.

 

JAMSTEC did fairly well for predicting temps for June-Aug....

 

 

JAMSTEC prediction from March 2014 for June-Aug...

 

 

This is what it's predicting for DJF 2014-15....fun to look at and feed the hype.

 

 

Great for the good old USA, but man look at the rest of the earth.

[GaWx]

I prefer the Univ. of Washington PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO value for August is in at 0.02....dead solid neutral.

 

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

 

That almost guarantees that the UoW PDO for August will still be a fairly solid positive. I'm going with about an 80% chance that the UoW DJF averaged PDO will average positive. This is based on past patterns when looking at the table.

[Kory]

I prefer the Univ. of Washington PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO value for August is in at 0.02....dead solid neutral.

 

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

Washington's PDO indices have been in sharp decline since May.  I suspect when they're updated index comes out for August, it will include another decline.  We're in a largely negative PDO period (it's just fluctuating currently), so I don't suspect it staying strongly positive through the winter.