2014-15 winter outlook

[Cold Rain]

Thanks guys. I haven't been paying any attention to sunspot activity in a good while. I know earlier in the year, there were several active areas, but I haven't checked on it lately.

[DaculaWeather]

Low and headed toward a minimum

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php

 

 

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

Low and headed toward a minimum

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_space.php

sunspots.png

Are we talking about winter or metals' braincell count?

[GaWx]

 My take on the sun fwiw is that we're in a neutralish period. However, normally after supposedly just passing a max it would still be quite active. Because this peak has been feeble (weakest in nearly 100 years), it is only neutral even so soon after the probable cycle max. The activity will gradually be getting weaker and weaker (although not smoothly) probably into 2020-1. The period 2018-22 could very well turn out to be the weakest cycle minimum since Dalton of ~200 years ago. That period will especially be exciting to follow!

[dsaur]

 My take on the sun fwiw is that we're in a neutralish period. However, normally after supposedly just passing a max it would still be quite active. Because this peak has been feeble (weakest in nearly 100 years), it is only neutral even so soon after the probable cycle max. The activity will gradually be getting weaker and weaker (although not smoothly) probably into 2020-1. The period 2018-22 could very well turn out to be the weakest cycle minimum since Dalton of ~200 years ago. That period will especially be exciting to follow!

That Dalton brought about the fight at the OK Corral when they went up against the Earps, plus a great Eagles album, and the Carpet Capitol. Also it made the US a whisky/ beer drinking country as Europe cooled and it was easier to grow barley and hops, than wine, then they all came over here for the climate.  And it gave us denser wood thus the Strads were born though many doubt that Shakespeare made those violins.  I'm looking forward to the ice festivals on the Hooch and the Flint, like the ones on the Themes when it froze, lol.  Fond history facts for those that don't look too closely.  On a side note, the moles have been collecting road kill and making new coats, so they must think a cold winter is coming again.  Nothing like seeing a mole wearing an Armadillo coat to let you know the cold is coming, but I'm just reporting the facts as I see them.  Any inferences you may draw are not my responsibility.  No huge spider webs, nor woolypillers to report yet. T

[DaculaWeather]

That Dalton brought about the fight at the OK Corral when they went up against the Earps, plus a great Eagles album, and the Carpet Capitol. Also it made the US a whisky/ beer drinking country as Europe cooled and it was easier to grow barley and hops, than wine, then they all came over here for the climate.  And it gave us denser wood thus the Strads were born though many doubt that Shakespeare made those violins.  I'm looking forward to the ice festivals on the Hooch and the Flint, like the ones on the Themes when it froze, lol.  Fond history facts for those that don't look too closely.  On a side note, the moles have been collecting road kill and making new coats, so they must think a cold winter is coming again.  Nothing like seeing a mole wearing an Armadillo coat to let you know the cold is coming, but I'm just reporting the facts as I see them.  Any inferences you may draw are not my responsibility.  No huge spider webs, nor woolypillers to report yet. T

Love it Tony! :-)

Looking forward to another winter with you here in Georgia! 

[dsaur]

It's coming Steve   And seriously, those huge spider webs last fall where definitely a predictor of a cold winter.  I'm seeing some early webs, but not the monster 50 to 100 foot threads like came in the fall last year, or the pterodactyl catchers they spread between the trees.  If I start seeing those again, then we can be sure of lows below zero.  I for one hope for more of last year.  The ticks and mozzies have been kept way back this summer, and I don't think they went of vacation.  I think a lot of them got an early dirt nap.  Tony

[GaWx]

It's coming Steve   And seriously, those huge spider webs last fall where definitely a predictor of a cold winter.  I'm seeing some early webs, but not the monster 50 to 100 foot threads like came in the fall last year, or the pterodactyl catchers they spread between the trees.  If I start seeing those again, then we can be sure of lows below zero.  I for one hope for more of last year.  The ticks and mozzies have been kept way back this summer, and I don't think they went of vacation.  I think a lot of them got an early dirt nap.  Tony

Tony,

When I get back to Savannah, I intend to compose a detailed webworm report. Just to remind you, they were apparently the worst in decades last Sept.-early Oct. Last winter, parts of Savannah got BOTH measurable ZR (~0.2") and a trace of IP! It was the heaviest ZR there since the 1980's! Ask yourself: was it a coincidence? I think we know the answer.

Also, T, where in the Wide World of Sports are the dadgum moles? The mayor has had the keys to the city ready for them for over a year now! Are they still out drinking? I bought them train tickets last year and they never showed up at the station! Also, I had a stretch limo with girls ready to pick them up and entertain them on the way to the beach. Please, if you are able to contact them, tell them I will provide them a special vodka ice cream to eat outside of the Tybee sand dunes although the motel won't allow them to take that alcy ice cream inside of the rooms. Also, I'll get those girls back to entertain them.

[dsaur]

Tony,
When I get back to Savannah, I intend to compose a detailed webworm report. Just to remind you, they were apparently the worst in decades last Sept.-early Oct. Last winter, parts of Savannah got BOTH measurable ZR (~0.2") and a trace of IP! It was the heaviest ZR there since the 1980's! Ask yourself: was it a coincidence? I think we know the answer.
Also, T, where in the Wide World of Sports are the dadgum moles? The mayor has had the keys to the city ready for them for over a year now! Are they still out drinking? I bought them train tickets last year and they never showed up at the station! Also, I had a stretch limo with girls ready to pick them up and entertain them on the way to the beach. Please, if you are able to contact them, tell them I will provide them a special vodka ice cream to eat outside of the Tybee sand dunes although the motel won't allow them to take that alcy ice cream inside of the rooms. Also, I'll get those girls back to entertain them.

 

 

I'll do what I can Larry!  The moles have gotten big headed and hard to handle, but the lure of girls used to get them excited about cooperating.  I know it always makes me more cooperative, lol. but then I don't have a cool, new squished Armadillo coat to sport about in   Tony

[rosie]

That Dalton brought about the fight at the OK Corral when they went up against the Earps, plus a great Eagles album, and the Carpet Capitol. Also it made the US a whisky/ beer drinking country as Europe cooled and it was easier to grow barley and hops, than wine, then they all came over here for the climate.  And it gave us denser wood thus the Strads were born though many doubt that Shakespeare made those violins.  I'm looking forward to the ice festivals on the Hooch and the Flint, like the ones on the Themes when it froze, lol.  Fond history facts for those that don't look too closely.  On a side note, the moles have been collecting road kill and making new coats, so they must think a cold winter is coming again.  Nothing like seeing a mole wearing an Armadillo coat to let you know the cold is coming, but I'm just reporting the facts as I see them.  Any inferences you may draw are not my responsibility.  No huge spider webs, nor woolypillers to report yet. T

I have seen 2 woolypillers on the road and one in my yard.

[mackerel_sky]

I have seen 2 woolypillers on the road and one in my yard.[/quote

What was the color pattern? More black or more brown?

[rosie]

I have seen 2 woolypillers on the road and one in my yard.[/quote

What was the color pattern? More black or more brown?

Looked pretty much normal, did not get a good look at any of them. Will look closer from now on. Had a praying mantis inside my screened porch, that was a first.

[mackerel_sky]

ame="mackerel_sky" post="3044620" timestamp="1409525902"]

Looked pretty much normal, did not get a good look at any of them. Will look closer from now on. Had a praying mantis inside my screened porch, that was a first.

I think the folklore is more black = more of a cold and snowy the winter. There are 13 bands or rows on them , supposedly representing the 13 weeks of winter!? I have seen all black ones and all brown ones in the same season, so who knows, but still fun to look at.

[HWY316wx]

I always base my winter wx long range predictions on webworms and Brick sightings.

 

The webworms are everywhere and Brick sightings are low.  I would say our chances for a busy winter in 2014/2015 are good based on this!

 

One thing I would like to see is the Greenland block this year.  That with a -NAO and I think we shut down the board at some point.

 

By the way UGA beat the tar out of Clemson last night... good sign winter weather will be strong in the SE!  

 

GO DAWGS!!!!

[CandymanColumbusGA]

It's coming Steve   And seriously, those huge spider webs last fall where definitely a predictor of a cold winter.  I'm seeing some early webs, but not the monster 50 to 100 foot threads like came in the fall last year, or the pterodactyl catchers they spread between the trees.  If I start seeing those again, then we can be sure of lows below zero.  I for one hope for more of last year.  The ticks and mozzies have been kept way back this summer, and I don't think they went of vacation.  I think a lot of them got an early dirt nap.  Tony

Heh... We saw webs almost as big as yours down here in Columbus last autumn and we had a few nice events including the flurry/sleet event in Auburn and inch or so near Roanoke, AL the Tuesday before Thanksgiving! THAT was special. And was only an appetizer for things to come.

 

As far as this year goes, I'm noticing the webs already in spots I saw them last year. To be honest, I hadn't really seen or noticed them in 2011 or 2012... Both those winters were meh to torch here. lol!

 

I wasn't in Columbus to see if they were in the same spot for the 2010/2011 season as I started here October 25th. It'll be interesting to see if these creepy crawlers are any decent at giving us a heads up as to how the following winter will pan out.

 

Honestly, I thought the spider webs were there last autumn due to us not seeing much rain from mid-August to November. The same thing is happening this year as our rain totals have kind of flat-lined... I suspect that's more of the reason why we're seeing the HUGE spider webs.

 

That said.... Here's hoping they bring another good to blockbuster winter for us all!!!!

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Do these webworms not make it into the upstate much? I saw a bunch of them in the lower part of the state back in July and I saw a bunch near Florence last summer, but I haven't seen any around the upstate last year or this year. 

[Stormsfury]

In his free video, JB shows a map with a prediction from WxBell of a very cold SE winter. He has much of the SE US near or even colder than 4 below normal. In all of the years of following JB, I can't recall a forecast quite that cold for the SE. However, IF there really ends up being a weak Nino fall/winter peak, a +PDO, and a -NAO, I could see this or even colder than this actually happen. Perhaps he is already thinking somewhat along those lines.

For KATL, he's going for a little colder than 4 below normal. How cold is that? Well, that would be very close to a top 10 cold winter there (going back to 1879-80). The very cold winter of 2009-10, which was the coldest by a good margin since 1977-8, was 4.4 below average. So, JB is going for something similar to 2009-10 in terms of cold. He's also going for well above average snowfall including ~150% of norm at ATL/RDU:

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-9-2014

2/23/12: 12 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO

Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO

1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN

2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN

3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN

4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN or NN

5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP

6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………*WEN or MEN

7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN

8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN

9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN

10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN

11) 1894-5.............-4.3..............WLN

12) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN

Note how many weak El Ninos are listed. Also, note 1963-4, specifically. On the previous version of the NOAA ONI table, it was considered weak. However, it has been revised as moderate. Regardless of the specifics, the general idea is that weak Nino's have been associated with more very cold ATL (and SE) winters per instance than any other ENSO state. However, it still needs the help of a +PDO and -NAO to give it the best shot at being very cold per history. Now, 2004-5 and 2006-7 were mild overall. I suspect that the +NAO was a major reason. Then again, Feb. of 07 was quite cold and the NAO did drop to -0.47 that month.

*Edit: Also, notice the relative absence of La Nina (only two WLN and one was later revised to NN) and the strong tendency toward weak ENSO, in general (WEN, WLN, NN, or NP).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Edit: It isn't necessarily true that the weak Nino forcing, itself, causes the big cold. Rather, it may very well be that having a weak Nino allows for the best chance for all factors, combined, to allow for the big cold and may allow it to be amplified somehow.

From 2012: To further illustrate my point, there have been 26 DJF's since 1899-1900 with a known +PDO/-NAO/-AO. Note these KATL stats for these +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters:

1) 6 Weak Nino: all 6 had neg. anomalies that averaged a very impressively cold -5.0 F. A whopping 5 of 6 very cold.

2) 10 mod. to strong Nino: 8 had neg. anom.'s and 2 had pos. anom.'s. The ten averaged -1.3 F. Only 1 of 10 very cold.

3) 6 neutral ENSO: 3 had neg. anom.'s and 3 had pos. anom.'s. The 6 averaged -1.2 F. 2 of 6 very cold.

4) 4 Nina: 2 had neg. anom.'s and 2 had pos. anom.'s. The 4 averaged -1.3 F. 1 of 4 very cold.

In summary, whereas the 6 weak Ninos averaged a very cold -5.0 F and 5 of 6 were very cold including the 2 coldest on record, the 20 others averaged only a modestly cold -1.3 F or about 25% of the weak Nino's negative anomaly magnitude and only 4 of 20 were very cold. So, it is quite evident to me that the weak Nino state, itself, is associated with a strong tendency toward cold winters at Atlanta that tends to pile onto the cold that tends to already be associated with +PDO/-NAO/-AO and is unlike any other ENSO state including stronger Ninos. In other words, nothing comes close to beating the weak Nino/+PDO/-NAO/-AO combo coldwise.

--------------------------------------------

*Edit: Before anyone tries to attribute west based (vs. east based) as being the most important factor for cold Nino winters, note that the very cold 1976-7 and 1969-70 were east based while the mild 2004-5 was west based. 1977-8 and 2009-10 were west based while 1963-4 was neutral based. My point is that I don't see a clearcut correlation for cold unlike what I see for weak. OTOH, I suspect there may be a good correlation of heavier precip. for west based.

West based appears to be the most likely for this winter assuming there is a Nino. For combo of heavier precip. and cold, I suspect that west based might be best.

What made 2009-2010 a standout was the record breaking and long-lasting -AO episode. Despite Strong El Nino, the record breaking at times high latitude block forced the arctic intrusions right on down deep into Southern States. Amazing winter that season.

[Cold Rain]

Enjoy the heat while you can. Absolutely brutal winter incoming.

[jburns]

What made 2009-2010 a standout was the record breaking and long-lasting -AO episode. Despite Strong El Nino, the record breaking at times high latitude block forced the arctic intrusions right on down deep into Southern States. Amazing winter that season.

 

Overall patterns can help with temp forecasts, but seasonal snowfall prediction by percentage in the SE is pretty much useless, and best ignored. 150% snowfall for Atlanta, while it sounds real good, is a whopping 1" above average.  We are a long way from 1" accuracy for a season. Lets face it.  It's a guess.

[Solak]

Enjoy the heat while you can. Absolutely brutal winter incoming.

Put away your Farmer's Almanac

[Cold Rain]

Put away your Farmer's Almanac

But, but, but...they have an 80% accuracy grading.

[mackerel_sky]

I can't get my hands on one! Lowes and Home Depot, who normally have them the earliest around here, have racks and racks of the 2014 edition they are trying to pass off on people, lol!

If I bought one that was for last year, I would be highly pissed off, don't mess with a weather nerd and his winter bible!!!

[Solak]

But, but, but...they have an 80% accuracy grading.

[brick] So does Greg Fishel but he's not always right either [/brick]

[griteater]

I can't get my hands on one! Lowes and Home Depot, who normally have them the earliest around here, have racks and racks of the 2014 edition they are trying to pass off on people, lol!

If I bought one that was for last year, I would be highly pissed off, don't mess with a weather nerd and his winter bible!!!

 

Spoiler Alert for you Mack...

 

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Enjoy the heat while you can. Absolutely brutal winter incoming.

I think it's way too early to say that this coming winter will be brutal. 

[rosie]

I think the folklore is more black = more of a cold and snowy the winter. There are 13 bands or rows on them , supposedly representing the 13 weeks of winter!? I have seen all black ones and all brown ones in the same season, so who knows, but still fun to look at.

Yes, all the creatures are fun to watch and wonder!

[Cold Rain]

I think it's way too early to say that this coming winter will be brutal.

Aren't you broiling today?

[superjames1992]

Overall patterns can help with temp forecasts, but seasonal snowfall prediction by percentage in the SE is pretty much useless, and best ignored. 150% snowfall for Atlanta, while it sounds real good, is a whopping 1" above average.  We are a long way from 1" accuracy for a season. Lets face it.  It's a guess.

 

And for Waycross, that's around a tenth of an inch or so?  You might be able to build a snow ant on a hood of a car with that kind of car-topper snowfall.

[mackerel_sky]

Spoiler Alert for you Mack...

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

Thanks for posting! All signs seem to be pointing to cold and snowy winter, so we will see!?

[superjames1992]

Spoiler Alert for you Mack...

 

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

 

"Crisp and very stormy".... oh.

 

I like "frigid and flaky."