Cold Rain Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 How about someone with some mojo start a non-weenie thread about the upcoming winter. (ixnay on the not so good crap) Kick it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Brad Panovich's light-hearted take on this upcoming winter's snowfall forecast. His real forecast will be out in late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Those city specific forecasts are the biggest bunch of hot garbage i've ever seen and from a professional meteorologist at that. I mean, I happen to believe his overall ideas but my god, dont provide city specific forecasts unless you have direct knowledge of climatology in a given area. Just looking at the raw numbers, it appears that the forecaster believes the 2014/2015 winter storms will affect the eastern Carolinas and not reach the western areas. Look at the difference in projected snowfall between Gastonia and Charlotte. The only way Charlotte will get 3 times the snowfall as Gastonia is if the storms go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Just looking at the raw numbers, it appears that the forecaster believes the 2014/2015 winter storms will affect the eastern Carolinas and not reach the western areas. Look at the difference in projected snowfall between Gastonia and Charlotte. The only way Charlotte will get 3 times the snowfall as Gastonia is if the storms go east. Also has the same theory here in the mountains. Thinks Pisgah Forest, NC AKA Brevard, NC which is 15-20 miles from the Asheville Airport where snowfall is recorded will get 7.5" but Asheville will get 11.3". Not much elevation difference between the two and neither are really effected by NWF events. I wouldn't put much weight in his numbers since he seems to neglect geographical logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 25, 2014 Share Posted August 25, 2014 Does anyone honestly ****ing believe that MORGANTON will get beaten out by GREENSBORO in an el nino year? More importantly/obviously, LOL at Greensboro getting 8"+ while High Point gets 2". And where the hell does the 1.8" average for High Point even come from? High Point basically averages the same as Greensboro, I'm sure. The freaking airport where the average is attained is as close to downtown High Point as Greensboro. That forecast is really just awful and it's based on incorrect numbers (Morganton averages a lot more than 3.9"/year, as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Looking at the available information as of today, I still have a hard time feeling confident in calling temps to be below (much less "well below") average this winter. If a Nino holds (even a weak one) I don't think precip will be much of an issue - but really timing (as usual). If I'm not mistaken, the brutal winter of warmth 3 years ago was preceeded with calls for cold and snow, as was it's predecessor. I'm wary of how the PAC will drive us again, even with a Nino. So, low to "meh" confidence in forecasting anything at this point regarding the upcoming winter seems appropriate. Or I could just wait for jshetley to make a call and go with the opposite. That worked out really well last winter Come on and laugh jshetley. Don't be a Communist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 LOL!!!That is a joke. But you know what, someone is going to look at that and tell people "we're going to get x amount of snow this winter, I saw it on the interweb!!!" :-) I agree with you 100% Hey, Steve, I just saw on the innerwebs where Griffin is going to get 6 inches of sleet from a huge, big Cad, that will go all the way to Dothan with zrain. Wahoo!! Jan. 7th. You read it here, after I read it there!!! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Looking at the available information as of today, I still have a hard time feeling confident in calling temps to be below (much less "well below") average this winter. If a Nino holds (even a weak one) I don't think precip will be much of an issue - but really timing (as usual). If I'm not mistaken, the brutal winter of warmth 3 years ago was preceeded with calls for cold and snow, as was it's predecessor. I'm wary of how the PAC will drive us again, even with a Nino. So, low to "meh" confidence in forecasting anything at this point regarding the upcoming winter seems appropriate. Or I could just wait for jshetley to make a call and go with the opposite. That worked out really well last winter Come on and laugh jshetley. Don't be a Communist. No snow for western and central NC, looks like an I-95 year for snowfall. Winter cancelled for Raleigh and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 No snow for western and central NC, looks like an I-95 year for snowfall. Winter cancelled for Raleigh and west. Raleigh's in the eastern piedmont so we're good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Looking at the available information as of today, I still have a hard time feeling confident in calling temps to be below (much less "well below") average this winter. If a Nino holds (even a weak one) I don't think precip will be much of an issue - but really timing (as usual). If I'm not mistaken, the brutal winter of warmth 3 years ago was preceeded with calls for cold and snow, as was it's predecessor. I'm wary of how the PAC will drive us again, even with a Nino. So, low to "meh" confidence in forecasting anything at this point regarding the upcoming winter seems appropriate. Or I could just wait for jshetley to make a call and go with the opposite. That worked out really well last winter Come on and laugh jshetley. Don't be a Communist. Haha! Queue the JB haters, but he has been eyeing the winters of 13/14 and 14/15 as cold winters, particularly in the east, for several years. If memory serves, this position was based primarily on solar and oceanic influences, which I guess would drive most weather patterns anyway. It'll be interesting to see if he is right...he's certainly going going all in with the cold in his prelim forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 So my screw jobs that started with the big bust in Feb and missing all the subsequent ice events, looks to carry over to this winter, can't wait !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Haha! Queue the JB haters, but he has been eyeing the winters of 13/14 and 14/15 as cold winters, particularly in the east, for several years. If memory serves, this position was based primarily on solar and oceanic influences, which I guess would drive most weather patterns anyway. It'll be interesting to see if he is right...he's certainly going going all in with the cold in his prelim forecast! Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Hi Haha! Hello! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 No snow for western and central NC, looks like an I-95 year for snowfall. Winter cancelled for Raleigh and west. These things WILL NOT shift west. We are done for the season here I'm afraid...3 snowfalls later...We are done for the season here I'm afraid.... Haha! Queue the JB haters, but he has been eyeing the winters of 13/14 and 14/15 as cold winters, particularly in the east, for several years. If memory serves, this position was based primarily on solar and oceanic influences, which I guess would drive most weather patterns anyway. It'll be interesting to see if he is right...he's certainly going going all in with the cold in his prelim forecast! I have more confidence in soccer becoming huge in the southeast than I do pre-season winter forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 These things WILL NOT shift west. We are done for the season here I'm afraid...3 snowfalls later...We are done for the season here I'm afraid.... I have more confidence in soccer becoming huge in the southeast than I do pre-season winter forecasts. Goal! Yeah, it's a crap shoot at this point. That isn't to say that the concept of long range forecasting is invalid, but I think we have a whole lot to learn before developing much confidence it it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 These things WILL NOT shift west. We are done for the season here I'm afraid...3 snowfalls later...We are done for the season here I'm afraid.... I have more confidence in soccer becoming huge in the southeast than I do pre-season winter forecasts. Haha! Resillency is key in forecasting I guess. Gotta give him credit for sticking to his agenda and not wavering. I think he said something about La Nina in banter this year so El Nino it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Haha! Queue the JB haters, but he has been eyeing the winters of 13/14 and 14/15 as cold winters, particularly in the east, for several years. If memory serves, this position was based primarily on solar and oceanic influences, which I guess would drive most weather patterns anyway. It'll be interesting to see if he is right...he's certainly going going all in with the cold in his prelim forecast! He's been on a great roll for a while now, I certainly wouldn't discount his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I like the pattern so far this year... rest of the country (hemisphere even) is above normal, while the Eastern US is the exception. Hopefully the winter holds the same, we get all the cold and snow while everyone else is above normal. While this summer wasn't as rainy as last summer (IMBY at least) it's similar temperature wise. I'll take a repeat of last winter's snow, and hope the upstate doesn't get in the screw zone again. To heck with the winter in general... let's start picking dates for our first event I'll take December 7th FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I like the pattern so far this year... rest of the country (hemisphere even) is above normal, while the Eastern US is the exception. Hopefully the winter holds the same, we get all the cold and snow while everyone else is above normal. While this summer wasn't as rainy as last summer (IMBY at least) it's similar temperature wise. I'll take a repeat of last winter's snow, and hope the upstate doesn't get in the screw zone again. To heck with the winter in general... let's start picking dates for our first event I'll take December 7th FTW I disagree with the early start to winter (dec7) , and think we will have to wait to get the goods until January 19th, and the pattern will be rocking there on out! There will be a relaxation of the predominant Eastern trough from about Sep-Dec, then hold on to your pantelones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 We need to score early in the winter before the scorching sun begins to torch all surfaces and turn snow into steam before it even reaches the surface. [/sort of kind of sarcasm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 We need to score early in the winter before the scorching sun begins to torch all surfaces and turn snow into steam before it even reaches the surface. [/sort of kind of sarcasm] Hey, it's almost too dark to see outside by 8 pm, winter is near and it will be fabulous ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Hey, it's almost too dark to see outside by 8 pm, winter is near and it will be fabulous ! Yeah, I was feeling it very slightly today... the winter itch. I'm getting the idea of a major "something" occurring for the SE this winter. Maybe a mega arctic outbreak? First sub-10 degree high on record? Ooh that would nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 We need that snow before the first day of winter... you know that sun angle starts to be a bit** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Hey, it's almost too dark to see outside by 8 pm, winter is near and it will be fabulous ! Heh, I was just looking outside earlier and was surprised to see it dark at 8 PM. Chop off the devil that is daylight savings time and it's dark at 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 The Pacific and Atlantic are both on fire (N Hemisphere)...weird. That's a neutral PDO look in the north Pacific since it's warm everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 I think this Nino is going to be a close call. I would go with 60% chance of Nino, 40% chance of Neutral...and if we get a Nino, 80% chance it's weak, and 20% it's moderate. Latest PDF corrected version of the CFS2 represents well my thinking on ENSO. Just a close call between neutral and Nino. Tough to forecast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Really quick glance, but weak warm ENSO signal, east QBO, and mod/high solar activity is a pretty good combo. Past years that had that are 1968-69, 1979-80, 2003-04 and all were cold and snowy for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Is the sun active or quiet? I read in another forum that is was quiet...but that poster might not have known what they were talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Is the sun active or quiet? I read in another forum that is was quiet...but that poster might not have known what they were talking about. I think one factor that has an impact on sensible weather is sunspot activity which has been pretty active over the last few years. There are other theories like cosmic rays increasing cloud cover which would drop the global temp a bit. Larry aka Gawx would be the guy to hear from on this subject. He is our resident sun expert imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 28, 2014 Share Posted August 28, 2014 Is the sun active or quiet? I read in another forum that is was quiet...but that poster might not have known what they were talking about. With respect to the Solar/QBO relationship, solar flux values generally greater than 150 are considered solar max conditions, and values below 105 are considered solar min conditions...with neutral in between. The last 4-5 months have fallen in the neutral range. IMO, that's likely to continue through winter unless we get a surprise. See Observed Flux values (1st column) - ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/monthly_averages/solflux_monthly_average.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.