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2014-15 winter outlook

FLO

By FLO,
in Southeastern States

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

If we get a weak or moderate El Nino to develop in region 3.4, paired with a newly arising warm phase in the PDO, these two will enhance each other.  Give me a few MLC's churning through the SE with a receding -NAO, and you will have some smiling faces on a message board that is lit up!

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Sorry, CR, but I believe you must be looking at the wrong winter.  This is the TRUTH:

 

4ielhg.gif

 

PREPARE FOR THE PARADE OF CUTTERS.  :tomato:

 

Woohoo…love me some cutters :-).  Assuming we can keep the positive PDO and a developing nino if we don't cash in then we suck.   Would be funny if the PDO went back negative and the nino sputtered on us….

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Woohoo…love me some cutters :-).  Assuming we can keep the positive PDO and a developing nino if we don't cash in then we suck.   Would be funny if the PDO went back negative and the nino sputtered on us….

 

funny as in ha ha?  or funny as in I will cut somebody if this happens?

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

My favorite 3 words in winter: cold chasing moisture" ! Guess who wins 99.9999999999366%

Of the time!?

 

Mack, that is some serious precision you've got going on there.  I didn't think we had instruments capable of measuring to that precision level or sample sizes large enough to require the need of that many decimal places.  ;)

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

He was clearly thinking of me with the 366 at the end!

Exactly! In honor of your constant whining! :)

I saw a wasps nest tucked deep in an arborvitae the other day. It was about 3-4 feet off the ground and about as big as a silver dollar! I think this is an ominous sign of an upcoming harsh winter with lots of cold and snow! The are building deep in the bush to protect from the almost continuos N/NE flow we will have this winter. It is actually on the SE facing side, lol! And as far as the 3 ft off the ground, we are gonna néed snowshoes this winter, according to my waspy friends!

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Exactly! In honor of your constant whining! :)

I saw a wasps nest tucked deep in an arborvitae the other day. It was about 3-4 feet off the ground and about as big as a silver dollar! I think this is an ominous sign of an upcoming harsh winter with lots of cold and snow! The are building deep in the bush to protect from the almost continuos N/NE flow we will have this winter. It is actually on the SE facing side, lol! And as far as the 3 ft off the ground, we are gonna néed snowshoes this winter, according to my waspy friends!

 

 When I get back to Savannah, I need to see if there is another infestation of webworms. Last late summer/fall was apparently the worst in decades. What followed? Savannah got measurable ZR and also an IP shower, neither of which is seen in most winters there. Also, the Charleston area, especially just inland, got hit pretty hard, especially with ZR more than once. There must be a connection, right?

 As great a winter as SAV, CHS, ATL, GSO, AYS (yes, they got a lot relative to their climo/history), and other areas had in terms of wintry precip., it wouldn't shock me to see these areas in the SE have another fantastic winter due to the prospects for a weak Nino and +PDO increasing. However, I'm a realist and realize that the incredible CAD of last winter will be very hard to beat. Actually, if anything, CAD isn't always king during El Ninos with major winter storms. Great CAD winter storms seem to be most frequent during neutral negative ENSO as was the case last winter.

 

 Edit: Tony. When are your moles going to finally get to Savannah? Savannah has been waiting over a year!

The mayor is still waiting with the keys to the city!! I think they're turning rusty!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Mack, that is some serious precision you've got going on there.  I didn't think we had instruments capable of measuring to that precision level or sample sizes large enough to require the need of that many decimal places.  ;)

 

It's amazing the precision at which snowstorms accurately miss us to the north!

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Do we really need a lot of CAD events to have a good winter ? I mean here in AL/GA, it's not like we get much of the impacts of CAD anyway ( except for northeast ga)

Over here in Gwinnett County, I almost always feel the effects of a good CAD. Not that it always helps me but when it occurs, we are generally in the midst of it.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, east/northeast of atl usually feels the effects of cad but west of atl, the effects are usually very minimal.

 

I definitely think you're underestimating its importance for areas in GA west of Atlanta. We know it isn't overall as strong an influence west of town as in town and, even moreso, east of town. Regardless, it isn't so black and white as each CAD is unique. It isn't as if there's an invisible line drawn over Atlanta. It isn't nearly that simple. Stronger CAD's sometimes make it into E AL.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

I'm catching up on my sleep right now because I see a lot of late night model watching this winter.  I have a feeling the SE crew is going to get a big dog this year...Ok, hoping is more like it!

 

 

Fixed!
 

 

Unfortunately, this is so true!

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Yeah, east/northeast of atl usually feels the effects of cad but west of atl, the effects are usually very minimal.

Minimal as in...? Winter weather events? Maybe. But we certainly do feel the effects of CAD in west Georgia. It's mainly cloud cover and a brisk NE wind, sure, but it's enough to have an impact on temperatures. We're usually on the edge of the CAD most of the time, which means we see it erode a little faster than the Carolinas, but it still has a big impact on us being 50 & cloudy versus 70 & sunny during the winter.

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

Minimal as in...? Winter weather events? Maybe. But we certainly do feel the effects of CAD in west Georgia. It's mainly cloud cover and a brisk NE wind, sure, but it's enough to have an impact on temperatures. We're usually on the edge of the CAD most of the time, which means we see it erode a little faster than the Carolinas, but it still has a big impact on us being 50 & cloudy versus 70 & sunny during the winter.

 

Was visiting relatives in south Georgia in Jan '05 and saw freezing rain on trees all the way down to just north of Tifton, GA with a big damming high.

 

24b2kph.gif

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Some winter predictions:

 

Old Farmers Almanac -- Cold Eastern US:

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OLD_FARMERS_ALMANAC?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-08-20-15-08-00

 

Liveweatherblogs:

 

1) NC (A Southern Jet Steam Shows Snowfall Above Normal With Few Decent Storms.):  http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/639-north-carolina-winter-outlook-2014-2015-including-charlotte-raleigh-durham-greensboro-fayetteville-cary?groupid=2

 

2) SC (Flooding and Severe Weather May Pop in the Winter. Expect One Snow Event, So That Could be Fun.):  http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/673-south-carolina-winter-outlook-2014-2015-columbia-charleston-greenville-summerville-sumter-hilton-head-florence?groupid=2

 

3) GA (Severe Weather and Some Snow Makes This a Winter of Many Changes. It's Not So Peachy.):  http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/640-georgia-winter-outlook-2014-2015-including-atlanta-columbus-savannah-athens-macon-roswell-albany-warner-robbins?groupid=2

 

4) FL (The Sunshine State May Get Real Soggy This Winter. Flooding is Above Average.):  http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/community/groups/viewdiscussion/658-florida-winter-outlook-2014-2015-miami-tampa-orlando-jacksonville-st-petersburg-tallahassee-ft-lauderdale-port-st-lucie?groupid=72

 

The Weather Centre -- For the Southeast: A cooler than normal winter with wetter than normal precipitation is currently favored. Higher than normal confidence. Snowfall is projected to be above normal.:  http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/06/preliminary-2014-2015-winter-forecast.html

 

Firsthand Weather -- Southeast: The southeastern United States will likely experience well-below average temperatures with many areas across the Southeast getting plenty of snowfall/ice/rain. Last winter, many regions saw above-average snowfall, but that doesn’t always translate to a wetter-than-average winter. This winter across the Southeast will likely be wetter-than-average for most. Because of the cold air that will likely be in place, many regions that typically do not get snow and ice will get it this year. This reminds me of what occurred in 2009-10 when many people living in the Gulf coast states saw snow who hardly ever get it. Unlike last winter, Florida will likely get in on the really cold air this year since a lot of the cold air could be more focused in the eastern U.S. Expect several big storms to move across this region this winter and impact many living in this area.

 

post-987-0-81863600-1408715923_thumb.png

 

Weather Advance -- It should be wetter than average in the south and southeast:  http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-of-2014-2015-forecast/

 

post-987-0-02354600-1408716329_thumb.jpg

 

Before It's News -- Southeast – Above Average Precipitation and Record Challenging Cold:  http://beforeitsnews.com/weather/2014/08/winter-forecast-for-2014-2015-highlights-2443436.html

 

post-987-0-50512900-1408716282_thumb.jpg

 

post-987-0-25362100-1408716292_thumb.jpg

 

Some of these may have already been posted.  JB's is already posted and is pretty much in line with these.  Hopefully, all the predictions of cold and snow will pan out. :snowman::snowing:

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Those city specific forecasts are the biggest bunch of hot garbage i've ever seen and from a professional meteorologist at that. I mean, I happen to believe his overall ideas but my god, dont provide city specific forecasts unless you have direct knowledge of climatology in a given area. 

 

You're talking about the liveweatherblogs guy.  Yeah, I agree.  I *guess* they probably classify areas at %of average snowfall and then multiply that by the average to come up with the snowfall forecast per city.  Not sure why you'd ever want to get that cute with it.  A map showing an outline of above normal/normal/below normal or even a percentage range would be better.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

You're talking about the liveweatherblogs guy.  Yeah, I agree.  I *guess* they probably classify areas at %of average snowfall and then multiply that by the average to come up with the snowfall forecast per city.  Not sure why you'd ever want to get that cute with it.  A map showing an outline of above normal/normal/below normal or even a percentage range would be better.

 

That's just a pet peeve of mine. If you cant do it right, dont do it. That's especially important with these forecasts. 

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Does anyone honestly ****ing believe that MORGANTON will get beaten out by GREENSBORO in an el nino year? 

LOL!!!That is a joke. But you know what, someone is going to look at that and tell people "we're going to get x amount of snow this winter, I saw it on the interweb!!!" :-)

 

I agree with you 100%

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