Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 And all you need is one big storm for that secondary track to break records and give you your above average snow fall for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 I just got around to looking at the EPS Weekly Control Run. It's too far off to really believe much.. but the first week of December has the entire Southeast going off the charts with cold 850 anomalies. Hopefully Larry can get a look at it soon. Again, it's so far away, it's worthless. But not a bad sign. Shawn, I don't have access to the EPS Weekly control run. I have access only to twice a week released Euro weeklies out four weeks (through end of Nov). Fwiw, they show the coldest to be in the first half of Nov. with what looks like a relaxation back to near normal for the last week fwiw. The most important thing on the run IMO in addition to suggesting that Nov. has a really good shot to turn out to be at least slightly below normal for much of the SE (good for cold winter prospects per ENSO analogs as per recent posts) is that it has a -AO taking over for weeks 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Matt East put out a winter forecast yet? Pack, let's start turning that 10 year around this year, huh? HAH, not feeling it for us this year, I am thinking another climo to just below for us…5-7" type season. I do like like the triad and points west into TN. I think that will be the sweet spot this season. Brad P's storm tracks make a lot of sense, although I think his primary track is a little west but he is obviously smarter than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 According to the EPS Weeklies (Control), we start getting colder on Thursday and that last through Monday the 10th. We have a slight warm up followed by another shot of cold beginning next Thursday (13th) through Sunday again. It gets cold again for Tuesday the 18th and stays cold all the way through the week of Thanksgiving... real cold. There is a day or so warm up and then another blast of cold air for the 4th and 5th of December. The Ensemble Mean is basically the same and keeps below normal heights over the southeast pretty much the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 According to the EPS Weeklies (Control), we start getting colder on Thursday and that last through Monday the 10th. We have a slight warm up followed by another shot of cold beginning next Thursday (13th) through Sunday again. It gets cold again for Tuesday the 18th and stays cold all the way through the week of Thanksgiving... real cold. There is a day or so warm up and then another blast of cold air for the 4th and 5th of December. The Ensemble Mean is basically the same and keeps below normal heights over the southeast pretty much the entire time. Yeah, also according to those weeklies, there's a huge CAD event in 2 weeks. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Interesting retweet by DT about Al Marinaro's methods for predicting NAO in the winter months. By the looks of it, we should see a negative NAO this winter. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/769805909733336/?type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Here is the direct link to Brad P.'s Winter Outlook if you want to watch the video and read the discussion. http://www.wcnc.com/story/weather/2014/11/04/winter-outlook-20142014/18408929/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Here is the direct link to Brad P.'s Winter Outlook if you want to watch the video and read the discussion. http://www.wcnc.com/story/weather/2014/11/04/winter-outlook-20142014/18408929/ His snow map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 His snow map... Looks pretty conservative to me. I guess the TV mets have to play it more safe. Still, looks like Raleigh is right at the average and above average line, which is good. Seems like most mets on here are more bullish for the above average snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 If I'm not mistaken I think other mets are going more all in on a southern storm track, a more active STJ. Brad P is betting on more cutters which IMO would suck. I'm hoping he's wrong and there's a large amount of STJ storms. I think the other thing to look for is the NAO that keeps the track south along the coast. -AO is good for cold availability, but I think there needs to be blocking/ridging in the classic NAO regions to keep southern tracks along the south. I'm hoping Nino and +PDO keep a nice STJ throughout the winter....mix in a -NAO and we're in business. Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 12 GFS builds some nice Canadian snow cover over the next couple of weeks. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=11&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=12&fhour=384¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 HIs primary track doesn't look too good for snow down here, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 HIs primary track doesn't look too good for snow down here, imo. Let's say there end up being 10 in his primary path and five in his secondary path, the one that often gives the best snows. In this case, I doubt anyone would be upset. I'm saying I just don't think it is a bad thing for Miller A to be predicted to be secondary since it isn't easy for that to be the primary path. At least they're being noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 HIs primary track doesn't look too good for snow down here, imo. You're going to have those down here no matter the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Let's say there end up being 10 in his primary path and five in his secondary path, the one that often gives the best snows. In this case, I doubt anyone would be upset. I'm saying I just don't think it is a bad thing for Miller A to be predicted to be secondary since it isn't easy for that to be the primary path. At least they're being noted. Yeah I guess we can't expect a parade of Miller A's all winter. I just remember seeing a lot more of them in years past. It's been said before, but prior to the "internets" I used to predict snow chances by always watching the Weather Channel's 7 day forecast and watch the white, pink, and green colors move from Arizona, Texas, Alabama, to the Carolinas. Whenever I saw it show up out west, I knew there was a good chance that precip and snow/white could hit the carolinas. Just doesn't seem to work that way anymore. Would just like to see, like you said, a significant increase in number, doesn't have to be a primary track I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 4, 2014 Share Posted November 4, 2014 Pointless arguing on this primary and secondary track stuff. It's a good outlook. Hope we get a couple of good gulf lows out of it. +ENSO and -AO/NAO outlooks favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 When the Arctic hound's bleed south with numerous gulf low's the south will be joyous...Job 37:9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Pointless arguing on this primary and secondary track stuff. It's a good outlook. Hope we get a couple of good gulf lows out of it. +ENSO and -AO/NAO outlooks favor it. All we really need are two or three of the secondary track with below normal cold and it could be a blockbuster winter. People need to get a grip on this stuff. Give me below normal cold and above normal precip...what more could you ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDa-wx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 All we really need are two or three of the secondary track with below normal cold and it could be a blockbuster winter. People need to get a grip on this stuff. Give me below normal cold and above normal precip...what more could you ask for? Your logic is not welcome here! Seriously, that's what everyone should be looking at. Like what was posted above, even a few of the Miller A storms coming through with cold air in place would make this a great winter for the southeast. Weather is a game of odds, and the odds are better with this pattern than they generally are for any given year. We should have several shots at winter weather this season and it's going to be a ton of fun to track and discuss what's coming down the pipeline. Take that as a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 All we really need are two or three of the secondary track with below normal cold and it could be a blockbuster winter. People need to get a grip on this stuff. Give me below normal cold and above normal precip...what more could you ask for? Couldnt agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 All we really need are two or three of the secondary track with below normal cold and it could be a blockbuster winter. People need to get a grip on this stuff. Give me below normal cold and above normal precip...what more could you ask for? Your logic is not welcome here! Seriously, that's what everyone should be looking at. Like what was posted above, even a few of the Miller A storms coming through with cold air in place would make this a great winter for the southeast. Weather is a game of odds, and the odds are better with this pattern than they generally are for any given year. We should have several shots at winter weather this season and it's going to be a ton of fun to track and discuss what's coming down the pipeline. Take that as a win. I don't get why anyone would be negative about this winter. All the signs are positive. Maybe it won't work out. But that would be a huge upset and go against all the indicators we are seeing now. The only reason anyone would be negative at this stage of the game is because they are just a pessimistic person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I don't get why anyone would be negative about this winter. All the signs are positive. Maybe it won't work out. But that would be a huge upset and go against all the indicators we are seeing now. The only reason anyone would be negative at this stage of the game is because they are just a pessimistic person. I have to agree with Brick here. Spot on IMO. This is no ordinary winter coming up at least in terms of intense cold potential IMO based on hard stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I don't get why anyone would be negative about this winter. All the signs are positive. Maybe it won't work out. But that would be a huge upset and go against all the indicators we are seeing now. The only reason anyone would be negative at this stage of the game is because they are just a pessimistic person. I'm taking a screen grab of this to use later on this winter when you start complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I'm taking a screen grab of this to use later on this winter when you start complaining. I did say at this stage of the game. Now, if we go through the winter and get nothing or below average snow, then that will be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 For the record, I'm very excited about this upcoming winter and have high expectations. I simply hope the STJ is very active to go along with the cold. Brad P's winter outlook touched on that so I discussed. Sorry if Debbie Downer'ed the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Still amazed when looking at all that warmth in the oceans...the 3.4 Enso region is looking better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Let's say there end up being 10 in his primary path and five in his secondary path, the one that often gives the best snows. In this case, I doubt anyone would be upset. I'm saying I just don't think it is a bad thing for Miller A to be predicted to be secondary since it isn't easy for that to be the primary path. At least they're being noted. You're going to have those down here no matter the year You guys are right. I keep forgetting how much further South i live now. Everyone seems really positive, so thats what im goin with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 HIs primary track doesn't look too good for snow down here, imo. If the primary storm track was a Miller A, we'd all have like 100" of snow in a winter. Obviously, that isn't going to happen. Most storms are going to miss us to the north and west, no matter how good the winter is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 If the primary storm track was a Miller A, we'd all have like 100" of snow in a winter. Obviously, that isn't going to happen. Most storms are going to miss us to the north and west, no matter how good the winter is. HAHA.. true, can you imagine if HIgh Point had say Hartford's climate in the Winter??... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 If the primary storm track was a Miller A, we'd all have like 100" of snow in a winter. Obviously, that isn't going to happen. Most storms are going to miss us to the north and west, no matter how good the winter is.I just want one "Big" one, just like last February 11/12!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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