Wow Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Pretty bold of him to go 5 straight months of wall to wall cold like that. That said, I sure hope he's right .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. Looks eerily similar to The Old Farmers Almanac predictions ! This winter looks better and better all the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Pretty bold of him to go 5 straight months of wall to wall cold like that. That said, I sure hope he's right .... I could go for that as well. It wold be nice to have a rockin' winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. lol sounds like an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I like that prediction.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. It's kind of hard to see five months of wall-to-wall cold like that... but I like it. We might need to take Cosgrove to the clinic to be checked for , though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. Too good to be true. Has ATL ever been 5 or below normal every month from November through February ? Did he say whether Nov would be wet or dry ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. Wow that is extremely bold. Seems practically all the big names are latching on to the cold prediction. If this winter goes bust...man it's gonna suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Fwiw since I love looking at historical stats, I was curious about the chances for all five of the months to be at least ~4 colder than normal. Back to 1879-80, that has yet to happen. So, this is quite a ballsy prediction. However, 1901-2 came fairly close with -5, -5, -3, -8, and -2. 1885-6 had -2, -2, -7, -4, -2. 1963-4 had -1, -9, -3, -5, -2. Next I focused just on DJF for all three being at least ~-4. I found two: 1962-3 had -4, -6, -7 and 1976-7 had -5, -13, -4. Four others were very close with just one month at -3. For KATL's coldest 12, the cold was hardly ever relatively evenly spread among all three months. 1962-3's -4, -6, -7 was closest to cold being fairly evenly spread out. When one month was far colder than the other two in DJF, the coldest anomaly was in Jan. five times, Dec. twice, and Feb. twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Fwiw since I love looking at historical stats, I was curious about the chances for all five of the months to be at least ~4 colder than normal. Back to 1879-80, that has yet to happen. So, this is quite a ballsy prediction. However, 1901-2 came fairly close with -5, -5, -3, -8, and -2. 1885-6 had -2, -2, -7, -4, -2. 1963-4 had -1, -9, -3, -5, -2. Next I focused just on DJF for all three being at least ~-4. I found two: 1962-3 had -4, -6, -7 and 1976-7 had -5, -13, -4. Four others were very close with just one month at -3. For KATL's coldest 12, the cold was hardly ever relatively evenly spread among all three months. 1962-3's -4, -6, -7 was closest to cold being fairly evenly spread out. When one month was far colder than the other two in DJF, the coldest anomaly was in Jan. five times, Dec. twice, and Feb. twice. So basically, Larry is saying this could be the coldest winter in recorded history ? Or at least the coldest 5 month Nov-March period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 So basically, Larry is saying this could be the coldest winter in recorded history ? Or at least the coldest 5 month Nov-March period. Good Q's! For ATL, has it been -5 or colder on record? Yes 1) NDJFM: two of them. 1976-7 and 1901-2 were ~-5. 2) DJF: 8 were -5 or colder. Of those 8, two were colder than -6. **Edit** Basically, in going with a DJF at KATL/KRDU of -5.3, LC is predicting that KATL will have a winter that is normal for way up in Richmond, VA, and KRDU will have a winter that is 1 F colder than the normal at Reagan Natl. in DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Good Q's! For ATL, has it been -5 or colder on record? Yes 1) NDJFM: two of them. 1976-7 and 1901-2 were ~-5. 2) DJF: 8 were -5 or colder. Of those 8, two were colder than -6. **Edit** Basically, in going with a DJF at KATL/KRDU of -5.3, LC is predicting that KATL will have a winter that is normal for way up in Richmond, VA, and KRDU will have a winter that is 1 F colder than Reagan Natl. in DC! Thanks for the update Larry! Will be interesting to read his full forecast as that is nuts. November as a whole right now doesn't look that cold, although the first 3 days will be well below normal. If we get a couple of more of these deep cold shots I guess it could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Can you imagine getting a system like we will have Saturday in January and February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Can you imagine getting a system like we will have Saturday in January and February?it would not be much different than it is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Wow winter storm watch for Buncombe County (Asheville) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 it would not be much different than it is now That's true! The 0 850 line would screw the eastern NC Piedmont, as usual. Larry, Where is LC's winter forecast at? Is it a pay thing now or something like that? OPI is at -2.19 today. One more day to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That's true! The 0 850 line would screw the eastern NC Piedmont, as usual. Larry, Where is LC's winter forecast at? Is it a pay thing now or something like that? OPI is at -2.19 today. One more day to go! trough is too far east and not far enough south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 trough is too far east and not far enough south. This would be a nice snowstorm in Jan for a lot of folks west of 85. Very strong H5 cutoff track down NC/SC line, would be a good snow for everyone NW of that track in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Not really it develops too late for most of us western posters. If it dug a little farther south towards the Alabama Georgia line it would make a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Not really it develops too late for most of us western posters. If it dug a little farther south towards the Alabama Georgia line it would make a world of difference. Ah, good point for the far western NC but for the piedmont this would be a nice snow event, not huge, but 3-4" band. Kind of reminds me of the cutoffs we saw in 2013, can't remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 That's true! The 0 850 line would screw the eastern NC Piedmont, as usual. Larry, Where is LC's winter forecast at? Is it a pay thing now or something like that? OPI is at -2.19 today. One more day to go! CR,1) Is there a website that has past OPI's in tabular form so I can do comparisons/analyses? 2) I'm on his email list. It is free. If it weren't free, I wouldn't have posted that kind of detail since it wouldn't be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 CR, 1) Is there a website that has past OPI's in tabular form so I can do comparisons/analyses? 2) I'm on his email list. It is free. If it weren't free, I wouldn't have posted that kind of detail since it wouldn't be right. Thanks man. I couldn't find the LC forecast on the web, so I assumed it was either pay or email or something. I need to find where to sign up. As far as the OPI stuff, I don't know where you might find it in tabular form. I just go here for the daily values (which I'm sure you already know about): http://app.til.it/opi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Thanks man. I couldn't find the LC forecast on the web, so I assumed it was either pay or email or something. I need to find where to sign up. As far as the OPI stuff, I don't know where you might find it in tabular form. I just go here for the daily values (which I'm sure you already know about): http://app.til.it/opi/ I think here, but I didn't sign up. Let me know if it works for you... https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Winter201415Forecast.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Awesome Allan! Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Man, I'm really pulling for that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Loving your forecast!!! Bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Another met that thinks this winter is going to be rocking. The signs certainly point that way, and RaleighWx did a great job of showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Man, this is sad...but that would really make me happy. It just seems like it's too good to be true. I don't remember in my lifetime a full winter of cold with above average snowfall. Here's hoping. I'm really starting to get my hopes up really high. Be gentle winter...be gentle. Thanks for the forecast Allan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of a new thread or not. But here it is. Allan, I appreciate the time you put in that forecast and also your contributions to this board. A+ job, pulling for your forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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