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2014-15 winter outlook


FLO

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Folks,

Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10.

Month ATL RDU

Nov -5 -4

Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917)

Jan -5 -5 dry

Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area

Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball

DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU.

Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov.

Looks eerily similar to The Old Farmers Almanac predictions ! This winter looks better and better all the time!
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Folks,

Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10.

Month ATL RDU

Nov -5 -4

Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917)

Jan -5 -5 dry

Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area

Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball

DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU.

Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov.

lol sounds like an epic winter.
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Folks,

 Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10.

 

Month  ATL   RDU

Nov       -5        -4

Dec       -5       -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917)

Jan       -5       -5 dry

Feb       -6       -6 snow threats in the area

Mar       -4       -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball

 

DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU.

 

Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov.

 

It's kind of hard to see five months of wall-to-wall cold like that... but I like it.

 

We might need to take Cosgrove to the clinic to be checked for  :weenie: , though.

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Folks,

 Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10.

 

Month  ATL   RDU

Nov       -5        -4

Dec       -5       -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917)

Jan       -5       -5 dry

Feb       -6       -6 snow threats in the area

Mar       -4       -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball

 

DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU.

 

Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov.

Too good to be true. Has ATL ever been 5 or below normal every month from November through February ? Did he say whether Nov would be wet or dry ?

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Folks,

 Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10.

 

Month  ATL   RDU

Nov       -5        -4

Dec       -5       -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917)

Jan       -5       -5 dry

Feb       -6       -6 snow threats in the area

Mar       -4       -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball

 

DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU.

 

Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov.

 

 

Wow that is extremely bold. Seems practically all the big names are latching on to the cold prediction. If this winter goes bust...man it's gonna suck. 

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 Fwiw since I love looking at historical stats, I was curious about the chances for all five of the months to be at least ~4 colder than normal. Back to 1879-80, that has yet to happen. So, this is quite a ballsy prediction. However, 1901-2 came fairly close with -5, -5, -3, -8, and -2. 1885-6 had -2, -2, -7, -4, -2. 1963-4 had -1, -9, -3, -5, -2.

 

 Next I focused just on DJF for all three being at least ~-4. I found two: 1962-3 had -4, -6, -7 and 1976-7 had -5, -13, -4. Four others were very close with just one month at -3.

 

 For KATL's coldest 12, the cold was hardly ever relatively evenly spread among all three months. 1962-3's -4, -6, -7 was closest to cold being fairly evenly spread out. When one month was far colder than the other two in DJF, the coldest anomaly was in Jan. five times, Dec. twice, and Feb. twice.

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 Fwiw since I love looking at historical stats, I was curious about the chances for all five of the months to be at least ~4 colder than normal. Back to 1879-80, that has yet to happen. So, this is quite a ballsy prediction. However, 1901-2 came fairly close with -5, -5, -3, -8, and -2. 1885-6 had -2, -2, -7, -4, -2. 1963-4 had -1, -9, -3, -5, -2.

 

 Next I focused just on DJF for all three being at least ~-4. I found two: 1962-3 had -4, -6, -7 and 1976-7 had -5, -13, -4. Four others were very close with just one month at -3.

 

 For KATL's coldest 12, the cold was hardly ever relatively evenly spread among all three months. 1962-3's -4, -6, -7 was closest to cold being fairly evenly spread out. When one month was far colder than the other two in DJF, the coldest anomaly was in Jan. five times, Dec. twice, and Feb. twice.

So basically, Larry is saying this could be the coldest winter in recorded history ? Or at least the coldest 5 month Nov-March period.

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So basically, Larry is saying this could be the coldest winter in recorded history ? Or at least the coldest 5 month Nov-March period.

Good Q's! For ATL, has it been -5 or colder on record? Yes

1) NDJFM: two of them. 1976-7 and 1901-2 were ~-5.

2) DJF: 8 were -5 or colder. Of those 8, two were colder than -6.

**Edit**

Basically, in going with a DJF at KATL/KRDU of -5.3, LC is predicting that KATL will have a winter that is normal for way up in Richmond, VA, and KRDU will have a winter that is 1 F colder than the normal at Reagan Natl. in DC!

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Good Q's! For ATL, has it been -5 or colder on record? Yes

 

1) NDJFM: two of them. 1976-7 and 1901-2 were  ~-5.

2) DJF: 8 were -5 or colder. Of those 8, two were colder than -6.

 

**Edit**

 

 Basically, in going with a DJF at KATL/KRDU of -5.3, LC is predicting that KATL will have a winter that is normal for way up in Richmond, VA, and KRDU will have a winter that is 1 F colder than Reagan Natl. in DC!

 

Thanks for the update Larry!  Will be interesting to read his full forecast as that is nuts.  November as a whole right now doesn't look that cold, although the first 3 days will be well below normal.  If we get a couple of more of these deep cold shots I guess it could verify.

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Not really it develops too late for most of us western posters. If it dug a little farther south towards the Alabama Georgia line it would make a world of difference.

 

Ah, good point for the far western NC but for the piedmont this would be a nice snow event, not huge, but 3-4" band.  Kind of reminds me of the cutoffs we saw in 2013, can't remember...

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That's true! The 0 850 line would screw the eastern NC Piedmont, as usual.

Larry,

Where is LC's winter forecast at? Is it a pay thing now or something like that?

OPI is at -2.19 today. One more day to go!

CR,

1) Is there a website that has past OPI's in tabular form so I can do comparisons/analyses?

2) I'm on his email list. It is free. If it weren't free, I wouldn't have posted that kind of detail since it wouldn't be right.

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CR,

1) Is there a website that has past OPI's in tabular form so I can do comparisons/analyses?

2) I'm on his email list. It is free. If it weren't free, I wouldn't have posted that kind of detail since it wouldn't be right.

 

Thanks man.  I couldn't find the LC forecast on the web, so I assumed it was either pay or email or something.  I need to find where to sign up.

 

As far as the OPI stuff, I don't know where you might find it in tabular form.  I just go here for the daily values (which I'm sure you already know about):  http://app.til.it/opi/

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Thanks man.  I couldn't find the LC forecast on the web, so I assumed it was either pay or email or something.  I need to find where to sign up.

 

As far as the OPI stuff, I don't know where you might find it in tabular form.  I just go here for the daily values (which I'm sure you already know about):  http://app.til.it/opi/

I think here, but I didn't sign up.  Let me know if it works for you...

 

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica

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Here is my winter forecast. Dont know if it is worthy of  a new thread or not. But here it is.

 

Man, this is sad...but that would really make me happy.  It just seems like it's too good to be true.  I don't remember in my lifetime a full winter of cold with above average snowfall.  Here's hoping.  :snowing:  I'm really starting to get my hopes up really high.  Be gentle winter...be gentle. 

 

Thanks for the forecast Allan.

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