packbacker Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Aleet Aleet! I wonder when our first Aleet of the season will come. We should do an over/under on that. I'll set the line at 12/25. Pack, don't worry about Nino. It'll get there and get classified as a weak, central-based Nino. The atmosphere will behave like it and we will get lots of snow. Stand down air strike. Your Avatar is great and like your thought process! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Will it make it warmer/drier? Nope; it doesn't operate in a vacuum. A +PDO is common in El Nino winters and should not create a screaming Pacific jet, flooding the country with mild Pacific air for the duration of the winter. Ridging in the west should be more favored than not in the means. That doesn't mean we won't see a -PNA pattern at all. And it doesn't mean we won't have a GOA vortex or strong jet from time to time. But in context with other favorable signals we're seeing now, a +PDO should not be surprising and should actually be a good thing. Your Avatar is great and like your thought process! Thanks! Get your sled ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Nope; it doesn't operate in a vacuum. A +PDO is common in El Nino winters and should not create a screaming Pacific jet, flooding the country with mild Pacific air for the duration of the winter. Ridging in the west should be more favored than not in the means. That doesn't mean we won't see a -PNA pattern at all. And it doesn't mean we won't have a GOA vortex or strong jet from time to time. But in context with other favorable signals we're seeing now, a +PDO should not be surprising and should actually be a good thing. Thanks! Get your sled ready. Awesome. Thanks for the info. I get these confused at times for some reason but that's what I thought initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Awesome. Thanks for the info. I get these confused at times for some reason but that's what I thought initially. NP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 From a RDU perspective it sucked when everyone around had relatively huge winters. GSO was epic, ATL was epic, eastern NC was way above climo, we weren't and haven't been for many years. I need to update that thread from last winter showing just how bad it's been for RDU since the 09/10 season. We are probably 60% of climo since/including 09/10, GSO, CLT, PGV and ATL are at or above. Just bad luck, it happens but it's getting old now. Agree, it's just bad luck, it happens, still doesn't curb the frustration though, but this is why 09/10 is at the bottom of my wish list. The last "great" winter RDU has had was in 2003-2004 and that was a CLT all time winter. I classify a great winter as something greater than 150% of climo. And 11 seasons and counting of not having a great winter is the longest such streak for RDU in 130 years and 2nd place isn't even close. All this talk about past winters is making me wanting to start wishing for a torch fest this winter I think we are way past due and we are going to cash in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 It looks like this year we will have a late freeze. I wonder if there is a correlation between how late or early the first freeze is and the temps for winter. I just feel when the pendulum swings to an extreme one way it has to swing back to the opposite extreme at some point to even everything out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JB's public winter forecast, a little more detail than what he showed last week.. http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This is the weather forecast I'm putting out for my area. This comes from my own front yard. Good times ahead folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 This is the weather forecast I'm putting out for my area. This comes from my own front yard. Good times ahead folks.Saw a nearly black one here also a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Aleet Aleet! I wonder when our first Aleet of the season will come. We should do an over/under on that. I'll set the line at 12/25. Pack, don't worry about Nino. It'll get there and get classified as a weak, central- west based Nino. The atmosphere will behave like it and we will get lots of snow. Stand down air strike. FYP btw.....For areas other than mby I will take the under Pack, if anything...having the cfs back down is a good thing. It seems to have keen skill lately of showing the opposite of what actually happens in the long range. Euro has been no better with Nino forecasts. All models have had a very difficult time with lr enso modeling. And it isn't just this year. I've given up on looking at them. Clouds my thinking. We seem to have the crossbars up anyways. It would be quite a shock if we exceed .8 on any trimonthly imho. 3.4 may hit .8 within a trimonthly period but it's pretty late in the game. I'm not really sure how much it matters between +.4 and +.7 through the season irt sensible wx patterns. Enso will have some influence either way. Getting an official declaration is really just for posterity at this point imho. I suppose the configuration of the anomalies is worth watching but again, I'm not really sure how much it would matter between east/central/west based with the anomalies coming in pretty soft in all regions. I'll defer on that. I don't have any knowledge worth discussing. I'm more interested in the pdo and what kind of patterns drive ssta's in the pac. I would give the state of the pdo equal or more weight than enso when trying to peel back the compex puzzle of what may or may not happen this winter. To the first bolded.....agree To the second bolded.....west based here in the south is what we are looking for To the third bolded.....this is my only concern, but.....with blocking and a southern stream, anything is possible I think we are way past due and we are going to cash in this winter. There is no such thing as past due This is the weather forecast I'm putting out for my area. This comes from my own front yard. Good times ahead folks. Saw a nearly black one here also a few weeks ago. Whoooooo hoooooooooo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey everyone! How is everyone doing as we go into Fall and early winter here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey everyone! How is everyone doing as we go into Fall and early winter here soon enough. Chris!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Chris!! hey hey! I am really liking the upcoming winter ideas that most have. I think we have another repeat, if not better winter, than last year. @wxmanchris my new twitter feed @41FirstAlert my work twitter feed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Hey everyone! How is everyone doing as we go into Fall and early winter here soon enough. Doing fine here. Had a bit of a scare last week though. Lost Buckeye for several days in the maze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Good deal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Doing fine here. Had a bit of a scare last week though. Lost Buckeye for several days in the maze. Thanks for sending the fireman to rescue me Yea....I know.....banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Doing fine here. Had a bit of a scare last week though. Lost Buckeye for several days in the maze. This is great burns just sent it to my wife and daughter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Just saw Roberts latest says the gfs has nice comma head with flake action Ne GA saturday morning and nw sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Just saw Roberts latest says the gfs has nice comma head with flake action Ne GA saturday morning and nw sc. AVL has snow from hr 84 to hr 93 on bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Thanks for sending the fireman to rescue me fireman.jpg Yea....I know.....banter I've been working out! I was not going to unveil this body until the gtg or when I had a chance to put it in " the recent picture of yourself" thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 AVL has snow from hr 84 to hr 93 on bufkit Yep it does. I really like our chances here in the mountains. One more day of model watching and seeing the pattern unfold until I get real excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 After the heat we have been having the last few days, I am looking forward to the cool down this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Doing fine here. Had a bit of a scare last week though. Lost Buckeye for several days in the maze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Doing fine here. Had a bit of a scare last week though. Lost Buckeye for several days in the maze. This is great burns just sent it to my wife and daughter!! Now that is funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well, the OPI is at -2.08, so it should finish the month right around there. The SAI and SCE look spectacular. A weak central-based Nino (go west, says Buckeye) is commencing. And the latest guidance shows the potential for an early November snowfall in the mountains, with perhaps some token flakes to the east. All signals GO for a -AO and a fantastic winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Well, the OPI is at -2.08, so it should finish the month right around there. The SAI and SCE look spectacular. A weak central-based Nino (go west, says Buckeye) is commencing. And the latest guidance shows the potential for an early November snowfall in the mountains, with perhaps some token flakes to the east. All signals GO for a -AO and a fantastic winter! You see Allan's post in the SAI thread? I listed the snow totals for RDU from those seasons. I am totally jinxing us, although I could see us getting 10-12" and GSO/CLT/PGV getting 20". http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-14#entry3100867 1965-66 (12.3") 1958-59 (13.5") 2009-10 (9") 1976-77 (3.6") 1979-80 (18.3") 1986-87 (10.8") 1968-69 (12") 2002-03 (7.4") -------------------- Avg - 10.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You see Allan's post in the SAI thread? I listed the snow totals for RDU from those seasons. I am totally jinxing us, although I could see us getting 10-12" and GSO/CLT/PGV getting 20". http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-14#entry3100867 1965-66 (12.3") 1958-59 (13.5") 2009-10 (9") 1976-77 (3.6") 1979-80 (18.3") 1986-87 (10.8") 1968-69 (12") 2002-03 (7.4") -------------------- Avg - 10.9" Yup, saw it. Looking forward to his winter forecast. Thanks for listing those totals. That's encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You see Allan's post in the SAI thread? I listed the snow totals for RDU from those seasons. I am totally jinxing us, although I could see us getting 10-12" and GSO/CLT/PGV getting 20". http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/page-14#entry3100867 1965-66 (12.3") 1958-59 (13.5") 2009-10 (9") 1976-77 (3.6") 1979-80 (18.3") 1986-87 (10.8") 1968-69 (12") 2002-03 (7.4") -------------------- Avg - 10.9" Pack, on behalf of the board members in CLT, I would just like to volunteer to take on the responsibility of accepting those totals....only to validate your concerns and prove the correctness of your thoughts, of course. I think the math seems to becoming pretty clear...-QBO, +PDO, weak Nino = -AO = colder temps. I think the only thing I'd like to hear more of is the odds of an increased STJ. Doesn't seem to be many qualifers or indexes to determine that at this point in the game (other than the weak Nino). I'd hate for there to be lots of blocking and colder tempatures but having to rely on the timing of northern stream energy to get our storms. With that said, with so much going for us and the cold clearly in play I find it hard to believe we'll whiff out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Pack, on behalf of the board members in CLT, I would just like to volunteer to take on the responsibility of accepting those totals....only to validate your concerns and prove the correctness of your thoughts, of course. I think the math seems to becoming pretty clear...-QBO, +PDO, weak Nino = -AO = colder temps. I think the only thing I'd like to hear more of is the odds of an increased STJ. Doesn't seem to be many qualifers or indexes to determine that at this point in the game (other than the weak Nino). I'd hate for there to be lots of blocking and colder tempatures but having to rely on the timing of northern stream energy to get our storms. With that said, with so much going for us and the cold clearly in play I find it hard to believe we'll whiff out this year. To be honest an active STJ is the least of my concerns (knock on wood), I think it's going to be a wet winter. Unfortunately I don't have the precip anomalies for pre-1980 but for the 4 winters on Allan's list here is what it shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Folks, Red hot off of the press: Cold average for each month from Nov. through March per Larry Cosgrove. Epic winter being predicted at least on par with cold of 2009-10. Month ATL RDU Nov -5 -4 Dec -5 -5 with possible winter storm (note that ATL is so overdue for a major Dec. SN/IP...last one 1917) Jan -5 -5 dry Feb -6 -6 snow threats in the area Mar -4 -4 risk for winter storm from bowling ball DJF -5.3 for ATL and RDU. Entire SE similar. So, please don't ask for what he has for your hometown. He'll obviously be tested very soon for Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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