2014-15 winter outlook

[GaWx]

Remember -- "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got"

 

Yep, this is something about which I think JB has always been spot on! A great line!

[packbacker]

Pack,

 I can understand some frustration. However, even in this case it is pure dumb luck. It isn't as if Mother Nature made it happen just to piss you off. We're all very different and will react differently to the same things. Personally, I don't see the point of ever getting pissed off about whether or not certain weather  does or does not occur in one's local area as if someone was controlling it and intentionally cheated me. I'm not saying I've never gotten pissed as it is human nature I suppose to react that way at least sometimes. But to me it really is silly to get so upset over wx (I'd even say that about myself after the fact if I got that way!) I generally stay content like my Peppermint Patty avatar regardless of the weather and try to enjoy life as much as possible.

Actually, I often enjoy analyzing past weather stats and using that to try to forecast the wx as much as actually experiencing current wx!

 

Agree, it's just bad luck, it happens, still doesn't curb the frustration though, but this is why 09/10 is at the bottom of my wish list.  The last "great" winter RDU has had was in 2003-2004 and that was a CLT all time winter.  I classify a great winter as something greater than 150% of climo.   And 11 seasons and counting of not having a great winter is the longest such streak for RDU in 130 years and 2nd place isn't even close. 

 

All this talk about past winters is making me wanting to start wishing for a torch fest this winter 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Agree, it's just bad luck, it happens, still doesn't curb the frustration though, but this is why 09/10 is at the bottom of my wish list. The last "great" winter RDU has had was in 2003-2004 and that was a CLT all time winter. I classify a great winter as something greater than 150% of climo. And 11 seasons and counting of not having a great winter is the longest such streak for RDU in 130 years and 2nd place isn't even close.

All this talk about past winters is making me wanting to start wishing for a torch fest this winter

it's funny how great winters in GA can be awful winters in NC and vise versa. 2003-04 was a horrible, horrible winter in my area. We had about 15 min of thunder snow in late Feb 04 that barely dusted the ground.

[GaWx]

it's funny how great winters in GA can be awful winters in NC and vise versa. 2003-04 was a horrible, horrible winter in my area. We had about 15 min of thunder snow in late Feb 04 that barely dusted the ground.

 

Snowstorm,

 However, 2003-4 ended up above normal at KATL with ~2.5" from that quick snow! Also, it was a somewhat chilly winter.

[SnowNiner]

Snowstorm,

 However, 2003-4 ended up above normal at KATL with ~2.5" from that quick snow! Also, it was a somewhat chilly winter.

 

2003-2004 is my all time favorite winter in CLT simply because of the February 2004 storm.  Got about 16 inches of snow, most of which in broad daylight.  Started snowing early morning, heavy snow continued off and on through the day and evening. 

 

Excited to hear that year legitimately talked about as an analog this year.  Though I'll just be happy to keep a frequent STJ going.  I believe that's what brought that storm our way in 04. 

[FallsLake]

2003-2004 is my all time favorite winter in CLT simply because of the February 2004 storm.  Got about 16 inches of snow, most of which in broad daylight.  Started snowing early morning, heavy snow continued off and on through the day and evening. 

 

Excited to hear that year legitimately talked about as an analog this year.  Though I'll just be happy to keep a frequent STJ going.  I believe that's what brought that storm our way in 04.

That was definitely a North and South Carolina special:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif

I was a little bit too far NE for the heavy stuff but still got about 5".

[WidreMann]

2003-2004 is my all time favorite winter in CLT simply because of the February 2004 storm.  Got about 16 inches of snow, most of which in broad daylight.  Started snowing early morning, heavy snow continued off and on through the day and evening. 

 

Excited to hear that year legitimately talked about as an analog this year.  Though I'll just be happy to keep a frequent STJ going.  I believe that's what brought that storm our way in 04.

Screw that storm. It struggled to snow in Chapel Hill all day, with the sun occasionally peaking out. The initial band dumped 7" over Fayetteville but struggled to produce an inch or so here, part of which melted over the afternoon. Then, the main shield took forever to arrive and kept getting eaten away by the dry air from the CAD. So while places 20, 30, 50 miles SW of me got 18"+ of snow, we got maybe 4" overnight.

[WidreMann]

From a RDU perspective it sucked when everyone around had relatively huge winters. GSO was epic, ATL was epic, eastern NC was way above climo, we weren't and haven't been for many years. I need to update that thread from last winter showing just how bad it's been for RDU since the 09/10 season. We are probably 60% of climo since/including 09/10, GSO, CLT, PGV and ATL are at or above. Just bad luck, it happens but it's getting old now.

Eastern NC has gotten way too many good storms in the last decade and a half. I'd like to see some cumulative snow total maps for that period. I'd bet we'd see eastern NC well above central NC.

[FLweather]

Screw that storm. It struggled to snow in Chapel Hill all day, with the sun occasionally peaking out. The initial band dumped 7" over Fayetteville but struggled to produce an inch or so here, part of which melted over the afternoon. Then, the main shield took forever to arrive and kept getting eaten away by the dry air from the CAD. So while places 20, 30, 50 miles SW of me got 18"+ of snow, we got maybe 4" overnight.

 

I think I remember that one storm. 

Eastern NC has gotten way too many good storms in the last decade and a half. I'd like to see some cumulative snow total maps for that period. I'd bet we'd see eastern NC well above central NC.

At times eastern and westerned has cashed in. But all the years that past living where i used.... I noticed it was hard to actually get a storm to bombed out and hammering the central. I 85/40 west or I85/95 east. areas. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Snowstorm,

However, 2003-4 ended up above normal at KATL with ~2.5" from that quick snow! Also, it was a somewhat chilly winter.

I think I had about 1/2". That was just one of several bad winters in the 2000s. 2002-03, 2003-04, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2008-09 all terrible winters imby in terms of snow. Definitely not the best decade for snow in the deep south, even though there were a few nice winters. 2004-05 was also bad for snow but we did have that major ice/sleet storm. So that's 6 out of 10 winters in the decade of 2000-2009 where I saw little or no snow.

[GaWx]

I think I had about 1/2". That was just one of several bad winters in the 2000s. 2002-03, 2003-04, 2005-06, 2006-07, 2008-09 all terrible winters imby in terms of snow. Definitely not the best decade for snow in the deep south, even though there were a few nice winters. 2004-05 was also bad for snow but we did have that major ice/sleet storm. So that's 6 out of 10 winters in the decade of 2000-2009 where I saw little or no snow.

 

1) Wow, how did you miss out on the upper low of 3/1/2009? KATL got 4.2"!

2) KATL averaged 2.2", or 110% of climo for the 2000's. The best ones there were 2000-1, 2003-4, 2008-9, and 2009-10 (best one). Also, there were the two major ZR's (with some IP): 1/05 and 12/05.

3) I'm assuming you're excluding 1999-2000 in this set. Otherwise, you'd have to include the twin major ZR's of 1/2000.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1) Wow, how did you miss out on the upper low of 3/1/2009? KATL got 4.2"!

2) KATL averaged 2.2", or 110% of climo for the 2000's. The best ones there were 2000-1, 2003-4, 2008-9, and 2009-10 (best one). Also, there were the two major ZR's (with some IP): 1/05 and 12/05.

3) I'm assuming you're excluding 1999-2000 in this set. Otherwise, you'd have to include the twin major ZR's of 1/2000.

The NW part of GA from Carrollton to the TN border got screwed in March 2009. We had hours of thundersnow but most of it melted. I've never seen such heavy snow and yet so little stick. Obviously the snow wasn't as heavy as areas to the south and east. That's why I hate March snow. And no, i'm not excluding 1999-2000. I was including the winters of 99-00 through 08-09 when I was talking the decade of the 2000's. Actually I should probably have just said January 2000 to December 2009. The icestorms in January 2000 were not bad this far west. Not nearly as bad as January 2005. We pretty much had no ice in December 2005.  If you exclude 2009-10, i'm sure Atlanta's average for the 2000's decade would have been less than 2.2". Most of Atlanta's snow that winter occurred in the 2010's decade. Overall, it seemed like we had less snow in total than we had in the 1990's. Of course, we had 16" in the winters of 91-92 and 92-93 combined. We also had a freak snow squall that literally sat over my area for a couple hours and dumped about 4" one morning in the mid to late 90s. That was very unexpected.  The Atl airport had much less snow in the 93 Blizzard though, so they may have actually had less snow in the 90s.

[GaWx]

The NW part of GA from Carrollton to the TN border got screwed in March 2009. We had hours of thundersnow but most of it melted. I've never seen such heavy snow and yet so little stick. Obviously the snow wasn't as heavy as areas to the south and east. That's why I hate March snow. And no, i'm not excluding 1999-2000. I was including the winters of 99-00 through 08-09 when I was talking the decade of the 2000's. Actually I should probably have just said January 2000 to December 2009. The icestorms in January 2000 were not bad this far west. Not nearly as bad as January 2005. We pretty much had no ice in December 2005.  If you exclude 2009-10, i'm sure Atlanta's average for the 2000's decade would have been less than 2.2". Most of Atlanta's snow that winter occurred in the 2010's decade.

 

Yep, the avg. would drop to 1.7" at KATL or 85% of normal. However, that woud also mean KATL got a whopping four major ZR's (not shabby at all).

[mackerel_sky]

Yep, the avg. would drop to 1.7" at KATL or 85% of normal. However, that woud also mean KATL got a whopping four major ZR's (not shabby at all).

The 2009 ULL was the cherry on top of a dumpster fire winter! I received right at 8 inches from that one! Actually paid off for once to be south of 85!

[KChuck]

I would cast my vote for 2nd favorite winter to be the 1979-80 winter I spent in Southern Pines, NC. Wrangler Jeanswear just moved me south from the Scranton, Pa. area. I recall two snowstorms that accumulated something like 8" and 12-14", though I can't recall which date. I kept hearing how I was going to miss the snow from up north, yet that year the Southern Pines area got more snow than the area I left up north. I believe it was the first one I got cocky in my little Datsun while I still had my snow legs from up north. I went driving while all the other southerners had parked their cars to check out the sew plant. Went flying into the parking lot and ran the car up a snow drift that lifted my wheels off of the pavement. Had to go inside the plant and get a shovel to dig snow out from under the car's undercarriage in order to get the wheels back on the ground so I could drive again. That winter and Thanksgiving of 1971 are my favorites. 1971 saw a last minute fetch develop off of the Atlantic spread over NE Pa that took us from a forecast of flurries prior to 3pm the prior day to a succession of 1" at 3pm, 2-3" at 5pm, and finally 3-5" at bedtime. Woke around 6:30 Thanksgiving morning to use bathroom with mom starting Thanksgiving preparations. I was planning on taking my tennis partner and her sister to homecoming game with our traditional rival. Mom said she doubted they'd play the game cause of the snow. Went back to bed and mom called they just announced on radio game was postponed. I said for a couple inches of snow? She asked if I had looked out the window yet. I did and drifts had buried my dad's car in driveway where you could just see the roof. Soon to be bro-in-law came by on snow mobile and took sister to local grocery store to pick up last minute things for my mom. Great storm!

[Cold Rain]

The OPI stands at -2.20 and the AO is going to hover around 0 to close out the month.  The snow cover stuff is looking good after looking good yesterday then looking bad then looking good again.  We should close out October with a favorable OPI, AO average, SCE, and SAI.  Unless something drastic happens, there should be broad agreement, with all of the October correlations that matter, for a -AO DJF and cool winter in general....the "New Dalton Minimum" strongest sunspot in a quarter century not withstanding.

[WidreMann]

The OPI stands at -2.20 and the AO is going to hover around 0 to close out the month.  The snow cover stuff is looking good after looking good yesterday then looking bad then looking good again.  We should close out October with a favorable OPI, AO average, SCE, and SAI.  Unless something drastic happens, there should be broad agreement, with all of the October correlations that matter, for a -AO DJF and cool winter in general....the "New Dalton Minimum" strongest sunspot in a quarter century not withstanding.

Here's a new concern for you: crappy North American snow cover. Also, the pattern looks like **** going into November.

[Cold Rain]

Here's a new concern for you: crappy North American snow cover. Also, the pattern looks like **** going into November.

 

I'm good with a November that isn't overwhelmingly cold.  I don't know if there is any correlation to November temps and winter temps -- there seem to be mixed opinions here.  Larry thinks the November AO correlates well to the DJF AO better than the October average does, if I'm remembering his analysis correctly.  Novy looks to start out positive in that department, so that's a concern.  The lack of NA snow cover needs to be watched.  Looks crappy now and for a while, but there's still plenty of time for it to change.

[SnowNiner]

The OPI stands at -2.20 and the AO is going to hover around 0 to close out the month.  The snow cover stuff is looking good after looking good yesterday then looking bad then looking good again.  We should close out October with a favorable OPI, AO average, SCE, and SAI.  Unless something drastic happens, there should be broad agreement, with all of the October correlations that matter, for a -AO DJF and cool winter in general....the "New Dalton Minimum" strongest sunspot in a quarter century not withstanding.

 

What was it two years ago or so that we had a -AO the whole winter and barely got any snow to fall in the SE?  I remember Robert saying to keep waiting for it because when the AO is neg, the SE ALWAYS get's at least 100% of it's snow (or something to that effect).  I think the pacific was bad that year, even though the Atlantic was in our favor...

 

I know the AO is important, and it's much better negative than not, but the whole snow index, advancement, etc is less important to me than the pacific.  I'm hoping the +PDO brings us a nice change in that regard this year. 

[Cold Rain]

What was it two years ago or so that we had a -AO the whole winter and barely got any snow to fall in the SE?  I remember Robert saying to keep waiting for it because when the AO is neg, the SE ALWAYS get's at least 100% of it's snow (or something to that effect).  I think the pacific was bad that year, even though the Atlantic was in our favor...

 

I know the AO is important, and it's much better negative than not, but the whole snow index, advancement, etc is less important to me than the pacific.  I'm hoping the +PDO brings us a nice change in that regard this year. 

 

I think you're right.  The brutal Pacific firehose killed us.  This year, the Pacific looks a lot better.  Let's hope it stays that way.

[wildweatherman179]

Would a +PDO essentially kill the south-central US in terms of snowfall/cold? Thanks in advance.

[Cold Rain]

Would a +PDO essentially kill the south-central US in terms of snowfall/cold? Thanks in advance.

 

Like kill as in make it colder/snowier or kill as in warmer/drier?

[packbacker]

The OPI stands at -2.20 and the AO is going to hover around 0 to close out the month.  The snow cover stuff is looking good after looking good yesterday then looking bad then looking good again.  We should close out October with a favorable OPI, AO average, SCE, and SAI.  Unless something drastic happens, there should be broad agreement, with all of the October correlations that matter, for a -AO DJF and cool winter in general....the "New Dalton Minimum" strongest sunspot in a quarter century not withstanding.

 

The weak nino is hanging on by a thread, seems like it's going to be impossible for a nino to occur, CFS which has a warm bias is backing off now...

 

 

[FallsLake]

Like kill as in make it colder/snowier or kill as in warmer/drier?

He's talking literally about the super storm man...So we'll survive but will have to be evacuated to Mexico. Everybody above 40 degrees North are on their own.  

[griteater]

The weak nino is hanging on by a thread, seems like it's going to be impossible for a nino to occur, CFS which has a warm bias is backing off now...

 

The PDF Corrected version of the CFS has lowered SSTs as well.  I'm having a hard time seeing why though given the subsurface setup and general upward progression of the SSTs over the past 3 months (albeit slow).  We'll see.  It's one model of many

[Cold Rain]

He's talking literally about the super storm man...So we'll survive but will have to be evacuated to Mexico. Everybody above 40 degrees North are on their own.  

 

Aleet Aleet!  I wonder when our first Aleet of the season will come.  We should do an over/under on that.  I'll set the line at 12/25.

 

Pack, don't worry about Nino.  It'll get there and get classified as a weak, central-based Nino.  The atmosphere will behave like it and we will get lots of snow.  Stand down air strike.

[griteater]

This is from NOAA's latest weekly ENSO update.  You can see here how the upwelling (cool) phases have become weaker and weaker over time since the end of last year, and we have another downwelling (warming) phase pushing east.  Gives credence to continued weak warming as opposed to cooling. 

 

[Bob Chill]

Pack, if anything...having the cfs back down is a good thing. It seems to have keen skill lately of showing the opposite of what actually happens in the long range. Euro has been no better with Nino forecasts. All models have had a very difficult time with lr enso modeling. And it isn't just this year. I've given up on looking at them. Clouds my thinking. 

 

We seem to have the crossbars up anyways. It would be quite a shock if we exceed .8 on any trimonthly imho. 3.4 may hit .8 within a trimonthly period but it's pretty late in the game. 

 

I'm not really sure how much it matters between +.4 and +.7 through the season irt sensible wx patterns. Enso will have some influence either way. Getting an official declaration is really just for posterity at this point imho. 

 

I suppose the configuration of the anomalies is worth watching but again, I'm not really sure how much it would matter between east/central/west based with the anomalies coming in pretty soft in all regions. I'll defer on that. I don't have any knowledge worth discussing. 

 

I'm more interested in the pdo and what kind of patterns drive ssta's in the pac. I would give the state of the pdo equal or more weight than enso when trying to peel back the compex puzzle of what may or may not happen this winter. 

[wildweatherman179]

Like kill as in make it colder/snowier or kill as in warmer/drier?

Will it make it warmer/drier?

[packbacker]

Pack, if anything...having the cfs back down is a good thing. It seems to have keen skill lately of showing the opposite of what actually happens in the long range. Euro has been no better with Nino forecasts. All models have had a very difficult time with lr enso modeling. And it isn't just this year. I've given up on looking at them. Clouds my thinking. 

 

We seem to have the crossbars up anyways. It would be quite a shock if we exceed .8 on any trimonthly imho. 3.4 may hit .8 within a trimonthly period but it's pretty late in the game. 

 

I'm not really sure how much it matters between +.4 and +.7 through the season irt sensible wx patterns. Enso will have some influence either way. Getting an official declaration is really just for posterity at this point imho. 

 

I suppose the configuration of the anomalies is worth watching but again, I'm not really sure how much it would matter between east/central/west based with the anomalies coming in pretty soft in all regions. I'll defer on that. I don't have any knowledge worth discussing. 

 

I'm more interested in the pdo and what kind of patterns drive ssta's in the pac. I would give the state of the pdo equal or more weight than enso when trying to peel back the compex puzzle of what may or may not happen this winter. 

 

Thanks Bob!   Kind of what I was thinking too, and to be honest the -AO is more important for the SE, regardless of the ENSO state, I just want the active STJ that comes with a Nino.  Warm neutrals and weak nino with a -AO are very good for us (SE).  Hopefully for you guys too.