2014-15 winter outlook

[LithiaWx]

Pitchforks come out when someone even thinks about a warm winter.

[Kory]

Pitchforks come out when someone even thinks about a warm winter.

Sad...isn't it.  

 

As Aristotle said, "It's the mark of an educated mind, to be able to entertain a thought, without excepting it."  

[JoMo]

LOL, yeah it was interesting to say the least. I don't get the whole snow cover thing anyways, why it's important just for October, I really just rely on Larry to give us a thumbs up or not.

 

Snow cover extent in Eurasia doesn't correlate as well as the snow cover advance index. The idea is that the speed/advancement of the snow cover in October can determine the AO for the winter since the snow cover creates a feedback with the polar vortex and weakens it, thus allowing the AO to be more negative, which means colder air farther south. This is only one piece of the puzzle though. 

[GaWx]

Snow cover extent in Eurasia doesn't correlate as well as the snow cover advance index. The idea is that the speed/advancement of the snow cover in October can determine the AO for the winter since the snow cover creates a feedback with the polar vortex and weakens it, thus allowing the AO to be more negative, which means colder air farther south. This is only one piece of the puzzle though. 

 

Related to this:

 

Year: Oct. highest SCE increases/DJF AO

 

*1976: 16.75/-2.6 (2nd lowest DJF AO since 1950)(Nino)

*2009: 15.5/-3.4 (lowest AO)(Nino)

2012: 14.75/-1.1

1970: 13.7/-0.5

*1968: 13.6/-2.3 (3rd lowest AO)(Nino)

2003: 13.5/-1.0

 

 Note the top three most negative DJF AO's being among the top five SCE increases (of 46) and also being Nino's. Because it is very roughly already nearing 13.5, 2014 is at a pace that could very well get it to 14-15 as of 10/31 (assuming not much meltback due to the expected continued intense cold through 10/31), which would put it in 4th place or even 3rd! Assuming we get the Nino, a top 3-4 for 2014 would seemingly favor a strong -AO for DJF based on these stats and Cohen's theory behind it. These numbers suggest that another rare sub -2 DJF AO wouldn't at all be out of the realm of reasonable possibilities.

 

 I'll also be looking at Nov.'s AO for more clues though 1976 & 2009 suggest it doesn't have to be solidly negative, especially during Nino's, to negate the great Oct. SCE advance factor.

[Met1985]

Good stuff JoMo and Larry. Like yall said only one piece of the puzzle but it seems to correlate very well with the phases of the AO.

[Cold Rain]

Well, the OPI, seems to have settled in around -2.25 - -2.50.  It's at -2.45 today.  The AO, which was supposed to go decently positive to close out the month, looks to finish right around 0.  SCE and SAI are looking good, as far as anyone can tell.  And indications of a weak Nino still persist.  So when all is said and done, I'm not sure how much better the global October signals could be, if we're looking for correlations to a colder winter.

[mackerel_sky]

Well, the OPI, seems to have settled in around -2.25 - -2.50. It's at -2.45 today. The AO, which was supposed to go decently positive to close out the month, looks to finish right around 0. SCE and SAI are looking good, as far as anyone can tell. And indications of a weak Nino still persist. So when all is said and done, I'm not sure how much better the global October signals could be, if we're looking for correlations to a colder winter.

The first half of this week looks to be comin in hot!

That should help with the above normal avgs to get us to +2 or better for the warm October piece of the winter puzzle!

[GaWx]

Well, the OPI, seems to have settled in around -2.25 - -2.50. It's at -2.45 today. The AO, which was supposed to go decently positive to close out the month, looks to finish right around 0. SCE and SAI are looking good, as far as anyone can tell. And indications of a weak Nino still persist. So when all is said and done, I'm not sure how much better the global October signals could be, if we're looking for correlations to a colder winter.

CR,

Watch the SCE/SAI this last week of October. While it has been looking about as good as one could want, some rather significant losses apparently occurred between 10/23 and 10/26 per Nesdis data. Whereas losses over recent days would not be a shocker due to reduced new snows, I honestly didn't expect that much of a drop that soon. I had been thinking the peak would be near 10/27-8 followed by a fairly modest drop 10/28-31. Hopefully, we're not going to end up with a full crapout for the 10/23-31 period as that could potentially turn things from fantastic to mediocre in a hurry. Regardless, the Rutgers data is what I've been using. It has been out since the last update of 10/19! Until that is restored, I won't feel too confident about where Eurasian SCE is in relation to what I had been seeing as well as past years.

[Kory]

The Nino is certainly looking good. I think we're well on our way to an official Nino...Although it won't be declared until 2015.

[GaWx]

What's the AO for October going to finish at? -1.3?

No, somewhere like -0.75 to -1 I think. Those GEFS AO runs of ten or so days ago backed way off later. I need to recalculate.

[packbacker]

CR,

Watch the SCE/SAI this last week of October. While it has been looking about as good as one could want, some rather significant losses apparently occurred between 10/23 and 10/26 per Nesdis data. Whereas losses over recent days would not be a shocker due to reduced new snows, I honestly didn't expect that much of a drop that soon. I had been thinking the peak would be near 10/27-8 followed by a fairly modest drop 10/28-31. Hopefully, we're not going to end up with a full crapout for the 10/23-31 period as that could potentially turn things from fantastic to mediocre in a hurry. Regardless, the Rutgers data is what I've been using. It has been out since the last update of 10/19! Until that is restored, I won't feel too confident about where Eurasian SCE is in relation to what I had been seeing as well as past years.

Also, 76/77 sucked for snow for RDU and I hope to never have to experience another 09/10 again. So a nice but not extreme SCE/SAI ain't bad.

[GaWx]

Also, 76/77 sucked for snow for RDU and I hope to never have to experience another 09/10 again. So a nice but not extreme SCE/SAI ain't bad.

Pack,

That's a very interesting take on things. For much of N GA, 2009-10 was one of the best winters in decades by many measures. Also, I'd take another historic 1976-7 type winter in a heartbeat. If we get that, I may need to stay in Savannah the entire winter lol. They got an extremely rare two sticking snows then!

Edit: I'm thinking about selling Savannah vacation deals for wx weenies if it does look like we 're going to get a 1976-7 type of winter. I may ask Metal to join me since Waycross also had the rare snows. I expect we'll give deep discounts to those who commit to this early. Once the SAI/SCE/OPI/AO are all finalized, I suspect Metal and I will come up with a fair early bird price based on a careful analysis of the risk-reward ratio. I think you and others may need to vacate NC.

[FallsLake]

Pack,

That's a very interesting take on things. For much of N GA, 2009-10 was one of the best winters in decades by many measures. Also, I'd take another historic 1976-7 type winter in a heartbeat. If we get that, I may need to stay in Savannah the entire winter lol. They got an extremely rare two sticking snows then!

Edit: I'm thinking about selling Savannah vacation deals for wx weenies if it does look like we 're going to get a 1976-7 type of winter. I may ask Metal to join me since Waycross also had the rare snows. I expect we'll give deep discounts to those who commit to this early. Once the SAI/SCE/OPI/AO are all finalized, I'll come up with a fair early bird price based on a careful analysis of the risk-reward ratio. I think you and others may need to vacate NC.

This was the best event:

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

Other than this a we had a few 1-3 events and a little bit of ice

[superjames1992]

09/10 was a prime Mid-Atlantic winter.  Not so much for the Southeast.  My area was fortunate to piggyback on the tail end of several of D.C.'s megabombs to get ourselves close to 20", but a lot of the snows were snow-to-mix or even snow-to-33/rain in the case of Snowmaggeddon.  Snow totals quickly decreased once you got south and east of here.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, Larry is right.  I forgot about the Valentine's Day storm.

[GaWx]

This was the best event:http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/Other than this a we had a few 1-3 events and a little bit of ice

Falls,

How much total snow did you receive in relation to climo? ATL got 5.3" in 2009-10 from an impressive three events. That is almost triple the normal for the season and heaviest since 1982-3. Also, it was the coldest since way back in 1977-8 there.

[GaWx]

09/10 was a prime Mid-Atlantic winter. Not so much for the Southeast. My area was fortunate to piggyback on the tail end of several of D.C.'s megabombs to get ourselves close to 20", but a lot of the snows were snow-to-mix or even snow-to-33/rain in the case of Snowmaggeddon. Snow totals quickly decreased once you got south and east of here.

SJ,

To the contrary, it sure was a major snow producer for at least some of the SE. See post just above this. Also, Savannah got 0.9", which was the heaviest there since 1989. Plus you still got close to 20" regardless of your downplaying it. Isn't 20" a lot of snow for your area?

I do think there is a tendency to compare too much to the Midatlantic and not enough to our own climo. We are and never will in our lifetimes have climo anywhere like DC's.

[superjames1992]

SJ,

To the contrary, it sure was a major snow producer for at least some of the SE. See post just above this. Also, Savannah got 0.9", which was the heaviest there since 1989. Plus you still got close to 20" regardless of your downplaying it. Isn't 20" a lot of snow for your area?

 

No, 20" is the most snow I think my area has seen since at least the 1980s (I want to say 1987 was greater, but I am really not sure).  It's just that every event was pretty much on a razor's edge as far as mixing with rain/sleet.  I think Raleigh only got 5-6" or so. EDIT: Sounds RDU was actually above average, so nevermind... though maybe Raleigh-proper was lower.

 

I forgot about the Valentine's Day Storm!  That was an event where we piggybacked off you guys down south for 2" of light snow overnight.  I think Columbia, SC got 8"+.

[GaWx]

Sorry, I forgot about the events down in GA. I guess most of NC east of I-85 just didn't do well.

No, 20" is the most snow I think my area has seen since at least the 1980s (I want to say 1987 was greater, but I am really not sure). It's just that every event was pretty much on a razor's edge as far as mixing with rain/sleet. I think Raleigh only got 5-6" or so.

SJ,

So, you got the most for your area in 09-10 since the 1980's and you're downplaying it? Why?

[FallsLake]

Falls,

How much total snow did you receive in relation to climo? ATL got 5.3" in 2009-10 from an impressive three events. That is almost triple the normal for the season and heaviest since 1982-3. Also, it was the coldest since way back in 1977-8 there.

Just going off the event maps, RDU was just over it's normal at 9.3 inches or so. I received 14.1 at the house. I thought it was a decent year.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

[superjames1992]

SJ,

So, you got the most for your area in 09-10 since the 1980's and you're downplaying it? Why?

 

I didn't really mean to downplay it.  I was just stating that most of MBY's events in that winter were more of Mid-Atlantic storms where we were fortunate to get in on them while most of the rest of the Southeast largely missed out.  I remember enjoying a lot of snow while fellow weenies in Charlotte and Raleigh were slitting their wrists.

 

Of course, there were exceptions like the Valentine's Day Storm and the storm on March 2-3, 2010.

 

There was also the dreaded NW shift at work that winter with almost every storm, it seemed.  The December 19, 2009 storm shifted northwest at the last second and screwed over Charlotte and really everyone south/east of Greensboro (and of course really jackpotted portions of NOVA).  The January 29-30, 2010 storm did the same and shifted north at the last second, giving DC a surprise 6-10" and again hosing Charlotte again.  The Valentine's Day Storm shifted north, as well, and gave me a surprise 2" when I believe I was expecting to miss out on any precipitation for the most part.

 

 

 

 

FWIW, the January 29-30, 2010 storm was probably the best snow as far as staying power I've seen since January 25, 2000.  It was in the low 20s with overcast skies the entire day afterwards with scattered sleet and snow flurries.  The sun finally came out the day after, but I believe the roadways were still caked in 7"+ of snow/ice all the way until the third day after the storm.  It was a very dry snow with very fine flakes, IIRC.  I remember looking out the window at around 2 AM during the heart of the storm as it looked like fine powder was just pouring down.  That was some of the heaviest snow I've seen.

[Eastatlwx]

Hey guys another x-flare. Largest sunspot in 24 years. Thought solar activity was suppose to be low this upcoming winter?

[GaWx]

I didn't really mean to downplay it.  I was just stating that most of MBY's events in that winter were more of Mid-Atlantic storms where we were fortunate to get in on them while most of the rest of the Southeast largely missed out.  I remember enjoying a lot of snow while fellow weenies in Charlotte and Raleigh were slitting their wrists.

 

Of course, there were exceptions like the Valentine's Day Storm and the storm on March 2-3, 2010.

SJ,

Isn't it normal for the SE to get a good bit less than the MidAtlantic, even in good SE winters? I think that a SE snow lover will rarely be satisfied if harping too much on comparisons to those in the MidAtlantic. I stick to comparing to my own climo, not other areas that get way more. I mean KATL got 5.3", which I thought was fantastic. I wasn't depressed that your area of NC got nearly four times as much!

[superjames1992]

SJ,

Isn't it normal for the SE to get a good bit less than the MidAtlantic, even in good SE winters? I think that a SE snow lover will rarely be satisfied if harping too much on comparisons to those in the MidAtlantic. I stick to comparing to my own climo, not other areas that get way more. I mean KATL got 5.3", which I thought was fantastic. I wasn't depressed that your area of NC got nearly four times as much!

 

Yes, Larry, you're right.  I don't expect to get as much as DC when our average is roughly half of theirs (if I did, I'd be disappointed more often than not, though surprisingly we did beat them during some of their horrible winters last decade).  I guess I just mean that the winter of 2009-2010 did not have a lot of March 2-3, 2009, December 25-26, 2010, January 2011, etc. type storms, which were more of Southeastern Specials.  Of course, there was the February Valentine's Day Storm, which I mistakenly forgot about in my original post.

 

In any case, the winter of 2009-2010 was probably my favorite winter until this past winter.

[GaWx]

Hey guys another x-flare. Largest sunspot in 24 years. Thought solar activity was suppose to be low this upcoming winter?

I've been and still am predicting about medium solar activity this winter. We're still close enough to the current cycle peak to most likely keep it from being too weak this winter while the relative weakness of this cycle peak shoukd keep this winter from having high activity then. Now, when I say medium activity, I'm talking overall averages. It is perfectly normal to have both active weeks and inactive weeks within one season that averages medium. By the way, the sun often changes rather abruptly, too. Who's to say that there will be any real active days like this come this DJF?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It seems like good winters often come back to back. 09-10 and 10-11 were amazing winters. 91-92 and 92-93 were even more amazing ( I had an incredible 16" combined). Hopefully 13-14 and 14-15 will follow suit.

[DaculaWeather]

From an old page of mine... I need to update it.

http://www.daculaweather.com/winter_2009-2010_master.php

[packbacker]

SJ,

Isn't it normal for the SE to get a good bit less than the MidAtlantic, even in good SE winters? I think that a SE snow lover will rarely be satisfied if harping too much on comparisons to those in the MidAtlantic. I stick to comparing to my own climo, not other areas that get way more. I mean KATL got 5.3", which I thought was fantastic. I wasn't depressed that your area of NC got nearly four times as much!

From a RDU perspective it sucked when everyone around had relatively huge winters. GSO was epic, ATL was epic, eastern NC was way above climo, we weren't and haven't been for many years. I need to update that thread from last winter showing just how bad it's been for RDU since the 09/10 season. We are probably 60% of climo since/including 09/10, GSO, CLT, PGV and ATL are at or above. Just bad luck, it happens but it's getting old now.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

It looks like this year we will have a late freeze. I wonder if there is a correlation between how late or early the first freeze is and the temps for winter.

[GaWx]

From a RDU perspective it sucked when everyone around had relatively huge winters. GSO was epic, ATL was epic, eastern NC was way above climo, we weren't and haven't been for many years. I need to update that thread from last winter showing just how bad it's been for RDU since the 09/10 season. We are probably 60% of climo since/including 09/10, GSO, CLT, PGV and ATL are at or above. Just bad luck, it happens but it's getting old now.

 

Pack,

 I can understand some frustration. However, even in this case it is pure dumb luck. It isn't as if Mother Nature made it happen just to piss you off. We're all very different and will react differently to the same things. Personally, I don't see the point of ever getting pissed off about whether or not certain weather  does or does not occur in one's local area as if someone was controlling it and intentionally cheated me. I'm not saying I've never gotten pissed as it is human nature I suppose to react that way at least sometimes. But to me it really is silly to get so upset over wx (I'd even say that about myself after the fact if I got that way!) I generally stay content like my Peppermint Patty avatar regardless of the weather and try to enjoy life as much as possible. I can get quite frustrated about things...example: obnoxiousness in PR forum for example. But rarely is it wx that does it.

Actually, I often enjoy analyzing past weather stats and using that to try to forecast the wx as much as actually experiencing current wx!

[FallsLake]

Pack,

 I can understand some frustration. However, even in this case it is pure dumb luck. It isn't as if Mother Nature made it happen just to piss you off. We're all very different and will react differently to the same things. Personally, I don't see the point of ever getting pissed off about whether or not certain weather  does or does not occur in one's local area as if someone was controlling it and intentionally cheated me. I'm not saying I've never gotten pissed as it is human nature I suppose to react that way at least sometimes. But to me it really is silly to get so upset over wx (I'd even say that about myself after the fact if I got that way!) I generally stay content like my Peppermint Patty avatar regardless of the weather and try to enjoy life as much as possible.

Remember -- "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got"