Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Are we still looking good for continued snow growth in the key regions through the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 If this winter is warm, the busts will be a plenty this may be off topic, but do you or anyone else recall the predictions for the 11-12 winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 this may be off topic, but do you or anyone else recall the predictions for the 11-12 winter ? You will generally see more cold and snowy predictions than warm and torchy winter forecasts. The reason is a subscription site wouldn't sell many subscriptions if they called for a torch winter. It's all about making money for some and hype sells. The met predicting wall to wall snow and cold gets held up on a pedestal, the met calling for a warm winter gets the cold shoulder and not given any credence. I actually don't blame people for going cold forecast based on the way people are. They want to hear about cold and snow not a torchfest. Meteorology isn't at the point where we can tell in October or November what our winter will look like. It's basically throwing darts and hoping you hit the mark. JMO Hype sells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 Are we still looking good for continued snow growth in the key regions through the end of the month? It looks quite good to me CR per today's Euro. It's funny that the snow cover website is down....too many hits, too much interest I guess...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 this may be off topic, but do you or anyone else recall the predictions for the 11-12 winter ? We had come off two winters with major -AO/-NAO blocking and cold in the east, so I know there was some that thought that it would continue, but I don't recall much more than that...but you could go back to Oct 2011 in the archives here and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 21, 2014 Share Posted October 21, 2014 It looks quite good to me CR per today's Euro. It's funny that the snow cover website is down....too many hits, too much interest I guess...lol Thanks. I took a look at the Euro website...the actual Euro website lol and it the pattern looked ok to me. But I don't have the fancy maps and all that. Hopefully, they can get the snow cover site back up soon. If high traffic killed it, it ought to be pretty easy to get back online when the traffic subsides, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB released updated winter forecast. Essentially has 90% of the US above average in snowfall. Has a couple of bullseye, one in SW, the other in OV which looks like it would be from Apps runners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB released updated winter forecast. Essentially has 90% of the US above average in snowfall. Has a couple of bullseye, one in SW, the other in OV which looks like it would be from Apps runners. Pack, for the SE, is the update colder/snowier, warmer/less snow, or the same as before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Pack, for the SE, is the update colder/snowier, warmer/less snow, or the same as before? The deep cold shifted NE, he thinks brunt will be OV. Not as good for us, but it never is. I was surprised how snowy the west is. Would like to see his monthly breakdown. He is weighing 77 very heavily, which for us was cold, as it was for everyone, but wasn't snowy for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The deep cold shifted NE, he thinks brunt will be OV. Not as good for us, but it never is. I was surprised how snowy the west is. Would like to see his monthly breakdown. He is weighing 77 very heavily, which for us was cold, as it was for everyone, but wasn't snowy for us. Thanks man. Still sounds pretty good for us though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 If correct, I think this would lead to more ice scenarios just east of the mountains. Damming hp, low cuts and dies going up the apps and redevelops off the coast. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 The deep cold shifted NE, he thinks brunt will be OV. Not as good for us, but it never is. I was surprised how snowy the west is. Would like to see his monthly breakdown. He is weighing 77 very heavily, which for us was cold, as it was for everyone, but wasn't snowy for us.Is the cold focus in the OV due to the SE ridge flexing? And I don't get how it can be snowy in the west and cold and snowy in the E/NE ? That seems like an impossible pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Is the cold focus in the OV due to the SE ridge flexing? And I don't get how it can be snowy in the west and cold and snowy in the E/NE ? That seems like an impossible pattern It's a coast to coast winter, baby! Maybe he will explain that in his Saturday Summary this week. I agree with Tarheelwx.... We've seen good high pressure already building in Canada and swinging across the northern tier. That's probably going to lead to a higher threat of icing. Hopefully, we can mix in a few snows as well. The OPI looks to be settling in around the -2 to -3 range. The AO looks like it will finish the month positive, if the forecast on the CPC page is correct. Snow cover data is down, unfortunately. Good time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Yeah, had alot of damming events this summer, let's bring those back in Jan, we will be in bidness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB released updated winter forecast. Essentially has 90% of the US above average in snowfall. Has a couple of bullseye, one in SW, the other in OV which looks like it would be from Apps runners. Seems to match up with DT's analysis of the soil moisture that can hint at where the mean trough and storm track could set up. This is one of the few indicators that I have interpreted as a negative for a snowy SE winter. Quote from DT: "This would seem to favor mean trough being located over Upper Midwest / Great Lakes - East coast and/or Appalachian storm track" This seems to be a new idea for this year. Every year there seems to be the new BIG INDICATOR for winter weather. Unfortunately, there are too many variables! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Thanks man. Still sounds pretty good for us though! I need to think about what he is doing some more…. with the jackpot of snow from west TN up through the OV that seems to indicate a storm track primarily cutting west of us which would really suck to have to watch that all winter. They jackpotted big time last winter too. I still don't get the whole USA being above average snowfall, but he is obviously a lot smarter than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I need to think about what he is doing some more…. with the jackpot of snow from west TN up through the OV that seems to indicate a storm track primarily cutting west of us which would really suck to have to watch that all winter. They jackpotted big time last winter too. I still don't get the whole USA being above average snowfall, but he is obviously a lot smarter than me. I think a storm track up through the piedmont or west of the Apps isn't all that unreasonable. We see that every year. With more cold around this year (assuming that is correct), it stands to reason that much of the precip with that type of storm track would be snow. I can't remember the last time we had a winter that featured a deep south and east coast storm track for the majority of the winter. Still, we should get our share of winter threats and I think most of us will end up pretty happy. Over in Asia, it looks like a favorable pattern for continued snow production, through the end of the month, best I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Looks like the exact track of the STJ and mean trough is what we will have to wait on. Anything from the ridge of the Appalachians to just off of the SE coast is in play. DT seems to think that the trough will move east as the winter matures. The SE will have opportunities for winter weather, possibly overrunning mixing events to Miller A's to Southern Sliders. Whether or not these will actually produce and how much is yet to be seen. That's why we follow the winter weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I need to think about what he is doing some more…. with the jackpot of snow from west TN up through the OV that seems to indicate a storm track primarily cutting west of us which would really suck to have to watch that all winter. They jackpotted big time last winter too. I still don't get the whole USA being above average snowfall, but he is obviously a lot smarter than me. Sounds like he doesn't think the blocking will be as prominent as others think. Lack of blocking would allow those cutters to sweep that area and not come further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC. Little to no snow, cool and wet. Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Sounds like he doesn't think the blocking will be as prominent as others think. Lack of blocking would allow those cutters to sweep that area and not come further south. No, he likes how things are setting up for blocking, that's what I don't get, unless he thinks the ridge out west if further west, which I don't think he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC. Little to no snow, cool and wet. Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities. I am starting to get to that conclusion too, only reason we will be cooler than average is because it will wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 It's not uncommon to see the storm track from TX to the Great Lakes early in the season, and then see it shift south and east later in the season. If we have a predominant -AO and -NAO this year, there will be opportunities for most on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC. Little to no snow, cool and wet. Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities. I am starting to get to that conclusion too, only reason we will be cooler than average is because it will wet. Based on what? Everything looks positive for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC. Little to no snow, cool and wet. Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities. I assume that goes for AL as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 I am starting to get to that conclusion too, only reason we will be cooler than average is because it will wet. but if its wet wouldn't that mean overnight lows will be Warmer than normal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 My winter prediction is pain for GA/SC/NC. Little to no snow, cool and wet. Edit : Highest elevations will obviously have more opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 LOL at you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 Very well done. Makes excellent points. Could be our best chance for a memorable winter in a while. I love WxRisk's weenie defintion!!! "WEENIE… term used to describe high school students and adults who think they are the next Jim Cantore – (but actually work 3rd shift at WalMart)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted October 22, 2014 Share Posted October 22, 2014 JB's forecast looks just as good for the SE as his previous two outlooks that I've seen. He changed the color/temp scale from the August outlook, but we are still in the -2 to -4F variance from normal on temps and in the 133% of normal for snow, with 167% not far away. He did go colder in the OV, which is in the -4 to -6 anomaly on temps after being in the -2 to -4 previously. He basically expanded the cold and snow across a broader area, but it's no worse for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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