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2014-15 winter outlook

FLO

By FLO,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Per KATL history, these are the winters that were cold (~-2 or colder) and wintry (great winters bolded):

 

8 winters/4 great winters had cold, wet, wintry: 1880-1, 1884-5, 1888-9, 1901-2, 1935-6, 1963-4, 1981-2, 2009-10

 

8 winters/6 great had cold, ~normal precip., wintry: 1898-9, 1907-8, 1911-2,  1917-8, 1939-40, 1957-8, 1967-8, 1978-9

 

6 winters/4 great had cold, dry, wintry: 1892-3, 1894-5, 1903-4, 1904-5, 1962-3, 2010-1

 

Bottom line: normal precip. vs. wet: not a big factor to get good amounts of wintry precip. during cold ATL winters. Actually, near normal edges out wet because it included 6 great ones vs. 4 great for wet. Even the dry category had four great(same # as for wet) though it had fewer overall (6 vs. 8 for the other two categories). Fwiw, ATL is overdue for a cold, near normal precip, wintry winter as it has been 36 years since the last one.

 

 So, based on these stats, I'll be rooting for a cold winter along with near normal DJF precip. at ATL and nearby areas.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

He mentions how it isn't warmer, and that one may argue that it's colder and snowier, but they have changed some things.

 

Gotcha.  Thanks very much!  In the last Saturday Summary, he indicated that if he were to change it, he might move the core of the cold and above normal snow areas slightly to the north and west of their existing locations, IIRC.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I don't think it even matters that much how the winter shapes up overall as far as colder than normal and wetter than normal goes. All we need is the right setup and the right time. Of course, colder than normal and wetter than normal increases the odds that we get one of those right setups. But a lot of times when it is really cold here, it is just cold and dry. And when it is really wet, it is too warm and just a lot of rain. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Per KATL history, these are the winters that were cold (~-2 or colder) and wintry (great winters bolded):

 

8 winters/4 great winters had cold, wet, wintry: 1880-1, 1884-5, 1888-9, 1901-2, 1935-6, 1963-4, 1981-2, 2009-10

 

8 winters/6 great had cold, ~normal precip., wintry: 1898-9, 1907-8, 1911-2,  1917-8, 1939-40, 1957-8, 1967-8, 1978-9

 

6 winters/4 great had cold, dry, wintry: 1892-3, 1894-5, 1903-4, 1904-5, 1962-3, 2010-1

 

Bottom line: normal precip. vs. wet: not a big factor to get good amounts of wintry precip. during cold ATL winters. Actually, near normal edges out wet because it included 6 great ones vs. 4 great for wet. Even the dry category had four great(same # as for wet) though it had fewer overall (6 vs. 8 for the other two categories). Fwiw, ATL is overdue for a cold, near normal precip, wintry winter as it has been 36 years since the last one.

 

 So, based on these stats, I'll be rooting for a cold winter along with near normal DJF precip. at ATL and nearby areas.

 

You common denominator is COLD.  That's logical.  Give me a cold winter to start, and we'll go from there.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

You common denominator is COLD.  That's logical.  Give me a cold winter to start, and we'll go from there.

 

CR,

Yes, I think cold helps. However, to clarify, I've yet to analyze the near normal or mild winters for wintry precip. I just looked at those winters that were both cold and wintry for now. When I get time, I will look at near normal and mild. Regardless, because I'm leaning toward cold this winter, I thought these were the most important stats and they show being wetter than normal when cold isn't important for overall KATL wintry precip. Being near normal when cold may actually be best by a modest margin. Also, when cold, wet has been a bit better than dry but not by a huge margin. So, when cold, near normal precip. little better than wet. Wet a little better than dry.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

CR,

Yes, I think cold helps. However, to clarify, I've yet to analyze the near normal or mild winters for wintry precip. When I get time, I will. Regardless, because I'm leaning toward cold this winter, I thought these were the most important stats.

 

I know in this area we have often had big snow storms right after having above normal temps in winter. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

CR,

Yes, I think cold helps. However, to clarify, I've yet to analyze the near normal or mild winters for wintry precip. I just looked at those winters that were both cold and wintry for now. When I get time, I will look at near normal and mild. Regardless, because I'm leaning toward cold this winter, I thought these were the most important stats and they show being wetter than normal when cold isn't important for overall KATL wintry precip. Being near normal may actually be best by a modest margin. Also, wet has been a bit better than dry but not by a huge margin. So, near normal little better than wet. Wet a little better than dry.

 

Gotcha.  Makes sense.  Always enjoy your analyses!

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

NWS Winter outlook just released.

 

 

NF-CPC-SO-precip-DecJanFeb_610.jpg?itok=

Chances of well above or well below average precipitation. Well above/below means in the upper/lower third of the historical record. White areas have equal chances for above, below, or near-normal precipitaiton. Maps by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.

 

NF-CPC-SO-temp-DecJanFeb_610.jpg

Chances of well above or well below average temperature. Well above/below means in the upper/lower third of the historical record. White areas have equal chances for above, below, or near-normal temperature. Maps by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from the Climate Prediction Center.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Here's the Observer's take on it: 

 

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/10/16/5246194/carolinas-winter-forecast-colder.html#.VEAZfhbySTk

 

Honestly I don't put much stock in anybody's seasonal outlook.  To me it's a crap shoot; seems like it's just as often wrong as right.  Last year for instance if I recall, many were saying warm.  Turned out cold.  I will give props to Robert though as I believe he stuck to his guns on the cold.  Actually I think DT called the cold as well.  But yeah, overall I just wait. 

 

But all the nice indecies are encouraging... :sled:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Dr. Ray Russell out of Boone, gives us his Winter forecast for WNC. Very good analysis.

 

http://raysweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

That was a good write up. The one thing they mentioned for us Piedmont folks is the higher chances of over-running events (CAD). Another thing they mentioned was winter forecasts are still a shot in the dark. I think we really need to get to get into early December to get a better idea. Or we might just have to wait and look out the window.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

Early indications seem to point towards a colder than average winter of the Eastern US with the axis being similar to last season, ie centered over the mid-south/midwest areas for the strongest cold. If a ridge develops and holds over Alaska (like the ECMWF is hinting at) with a (fairly far south of) Iceland type blocking pattern, then we could be in for some good times. Snow/ice prediction is more problematic than temps and will depend on the exact storm track which is so crucial for us east of the NC mountains getting either a cold rain (or ice) or more snowfall. The ECMWF is predicting a slightly negative NAO for the most part and a strongly negative AO and the ridge squarely over Alaska, forcing cold air to funnel into the midwest/eastern US areas. If the -NAO does show up, it would help force the lows up the SC/NC coasts instead of west of the NC mountains leading to ample snows for the vast majority of us. Should the High retrograde westward from Alaska then it would lead to less snow here but bigger snows in the Mid Atlantic and NE states. My best (early) guess would be a winter that averages 3-5F below normal and a greater, perhaps much greater, chance of snowfall, say 175-200% of normal. IMO the keys will be to watch the 1. Higher pressures in Alaska 2. -AO for the Dec/Jan months and then turn our attention to the NAO come Feb/March.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Early indications seem to point towards a colder than average winter of the Eastern US with the axis being similar to last season, ie centered over the mid-south/midwest areas for the strongest cold. If a ridge develops and holds over Alaska (like the ECMWF is hinting at) with a (fairly far south of) Iceland type blocking pattern, then we could be in for some good times. Snow/ice prediction is more problematic than temps and will depend on the exact storm track which is so crucial for us east of the NC mountains getting either a cold rain (or ice) or more snowfall. The ECMWF is predicting a slightly negative NAO for the most part and a strongly negative AO and the ridge squarely over Alaska, forcing cold air to funnel into the midwest/eastern US areas. If the -NAO does show up, it would help force the lows up the SC/NC coasts instead of west of the NC mountains leading to ample snows for the vast majority of us. Should the High retrograde westward from Alaska then it would lead to less snow here but bigger snows in the Mid Atlantic and NE states. My best (early) guess would be a winter that averages 3-5F below normal and a greater, perhaps much greater, chance of snowfall, say 175-200% of normal. IMO the keys will be to watch the 1. Higher pressures in Alaska 2. -AO for the Dec/Jan months and then turn our attention to the NAO come Feb/March.

 

Is this based on anything other than a guess?

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

Is this based on anything other than a guess?

Yes it is based on projected winter pressure patterns, ENSO conditions, SST's and long term model predictions. The most comparable analog years are (in order of weight) 2003, 1977, 2010 and to a lesser degree, 1969, 1970, 1978, and 1994

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Joe D had a good writeup today on WB, looking at -QBO/easterly winters.  He then looked at only central pac nino's, and warm pool NPAC he came up with these analogs...69/77/80/87/04/10.  RDU averaged about 150% of climo.  I know this is about the 100th time someone has brought up these same analogs, but no matter what you look at these seasons keep coming up.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

Joe D had a good writeup today on WB, looking at -QBO/easterly winters.  He then looked at only central pac nino's, and warm pool NPAC he came up with these analogs...69/77/80/87/04/10.  RDU averaged about 150% of climo.  I know this is about the 100th time someone has brought up these same analogs, but no matter what you look at these seasons keep coming upThnk

Thanks for this info from D'Leo, interestingly I almost added 1987 to the analogs I mentioned but did not because of a slightly stronger El Nino signal that year

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