packbacker Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Regarding the Oct. AO: The 10/1-14 averaged AO is at an impressive ~-1.6. Today's GEFS mean forecast out two weeks looks similar to, if not a touch more negative than, yesterday through the two week forecast fwiw. I'm estimating that the combo of that and the actuals through 10/14 is giving a 10/1-28 projected averaged AO of a very impressive ~-1.5. So, something close to -1.5 for the entire month is not at all far-fetched. If it were to be near -1.5, only 2009's -1.540, 2012's -1.514, and 2002's -1.489 would be nearby going back to 1950! The next one is the not even close -1.243 of 1979. What happened in the subsequent DJF's AO for these three years (vs. mean of -0.35)? - 2002: -0.65 - 2009: -3.42 (lowest AO since at least 1950) - 2012: -1.12 So, we got a record low AO, a strongly -AO, and a modest -AO (vs. -0.35 mean). So, this would be encouraging for the chances at a solid -AO this winter. If Nov. were to also have a strong -AO and if we get El Nino, it would be looking extremely encouraging for strong -AO chances for DJF as well as quite a cold winter. Add in a warm KATL Oct. and I'm happier than Brick in the middle of a tornado, Very interesting! I like 79/80 and 03/04 as those were neutral positive ENSO's, both winters had a preceding Oct with a -AO too. To go along with +PDO, -QBO and a DJF -AO. Plus those were banner winters for central NC :-) 77-78 was another winter that had an Oct with a -AO, that was a weak Nino, with +PDO, -QBO and a DJF -AO. I know you were looking at strong Oct -AO's and what followed that winter, which is very encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The winter of 2002-2003 was one with quite a few moderate snow events, but no "Big Daddys" with the exception of the clipper in January, which somehow dropped a foot of snow in some areas of the foothills and a foot of snow in the OBX. And, of course, that had the great ice storm many of us North Carolinians remember very well in December. It also had an epic sleet storm in February, though I think last March's ice/sleet storm topped it. For KATL: In terms of wintry precip, there was some non-major ZR 12/4-5 but only a T of SN/IP in 2002-3. It was a cool winter though not real cold. 2012-13 had only a T of SN/IP as well as no ZR and was mild overall in DJF though M was chilly. 2009-10 was the best of the three by far with very cold (-4) and three measurable SN/IP events totaling 5.3", which made it the coldest since 1977-8 and the most SN/IP since 1982-3 since the 3/93 blizzard was at 4.2" at the airport and the 1/88 storm produced 4.2" of mainly IP (would have been much ore if maionly SN). There was no ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 For KATL: In terms of wintry precip, there was some non-major ZR 12/4-5 but only a T of SN/IP in 2002-3. It was a cool winter though not real cold. 2012-13 had only a T of SN/IP as well as no ZR and was mild overall in DJF though M was chilly. 2009-10 was the best of the three by far with very cold (-4) and three measurable SN/IP events totaling 5.3", which made it the coldest since 1977-8 and the most SN/IP since 1982-3 since the 3/93 blizzard was at 4.2" at the airport and the 1/88 storm produced 4.2" of mainly IP (would have been much ore if maionly SN). There was no ZR. I'm surprised ATL did so badly in 2002-2003. It is my understanding that that was a great winter in the Mid-Atlantic, too (PD II). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Daily OPI is down to -2.70 and the AO is diving again...perhaps to around -3. Nino appears to be advancing too. Also, unless we get any last minute shenanigans, there doesn't look to be any anomalous October noreaster/snowstorms either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It looks like everything is falling into place for a big winter. I just hope it is not all wasted potential and we actually get something to show for it. I'm a little worried about how the models will do since a lot of folks feel they have been off a lot since the start of summer. Surprises are great, but Lucy pulling the ball away at the last second is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather with their shot. I'm sitting where the cold, ice, snow and wet all meet, although this does appear to be a safe, cover all shot for the Southern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather with their shot. I'm sitting where the cold, ice, snow and wet all meet, although this does appear to be a safe, cover all shot for the Southern Appalachians. Man looks like State College Pennsylvania will be in the bulls eye....Great forecasters... sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 ^Ugh! Tired of accuweather putting us under the severe weather for winter outlooks and nothing ever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather with their shot. I'm sitting where the cold, ice, snow and wet all meet, although this does appear to be a safe, cover all shot for the Southern Appalachians. Look solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 JMO, but probably the most reasonable winter outlook I have seen from accuweather in several years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 JMO, but probably the most reasonable winter outlook I have seen from accuweather in several years.... Just because you get in on the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Doesn't look good for us folks in Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, etc. Congrats to the folks in Dallas, Nashville, etc. I really had high hopes for this upcoming winter. Maybe this map is wrong. And even worse, we are between the ice and severe storms area. So basically a boring winter, with ice and snow to the north and west, severe storms to the south, and we are probably stuck with a boring, cold rain all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 That map doesn't seem to go with what others have said about signs pointing to a big winter in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Doesn't look good for us folks in Atlanta, Raleigh, Charlotte, etc. Congrats to the folks in Dallas, Nashville, etc. I really had high hopes for this upcoming winter. Maybe this map is wrong. That looks like the same map they put out every year for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Bunch of cliff divers already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 JB isn't going to like the look for winter from his favorite long range model, the JMA. http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/ Coldest air over the west and central now. Looks like higher heights in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 God I just hope this winter is not a repeat of 2011-12. I don't like the way things are trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Just because you get in on the ice! Actually I am in the tip of the state, dancing in the snow per their outlook. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 God I just hope this winter is not a repeat of 2011-12. I don't like the way things are trending. It looks bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 God I just hope this winter is not a repeat of 2011-12. I don't like the way things are trending.Me either. Rising OPI's, freaking hurricanes, cereal derechos, and tornadoes in October, no sign of El Ninos. Ready for the summer of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Me either. Rising OPI's, freaking hurricanes and tornadoes in October, no sign of El Ninos. Ready for the summer of 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 God I just hope this winter is not a repeat of 2011-12. I don't like the way things are trending. It looks bad... Me either. Rising OPI's, freaking hurricanes, cereal derechos, and tornadoes in October, no sign of El Ninos. Ready for the summer of 2015. Y'all must be reading a different board than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Wow, things turned quickly today, LOL. The JMA seasonal doesn't look good but neither does the CFSv2. The accuweather map looks reasonable, as always we are on the battleground of rain/ice/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Yeah, winter is going to suck. +5 December, +6 in January, and +3 in February with a rogue sleet pellet or a graupel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Wow, things turned quickly today, LOL. The JMA seasonal doesn't look good but neither does the CFSv2. The accuweather map looks reasonable, as always we are on the battleground of rain/ice/snow. Don't pay attention to that map. They put out the same thing every year. And there has been a lot more positive signs posted about this coming winter than negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 And -3.5" at RDU for snow....almost forgot that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 That JMA looks like a La Nina with a raging +AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Accuweather with their shot. I'm sitting where the cold, ice, snow and wet all meet, although this does appear to be a safe, cover all shot for the Southern Appalachians. .jpg] This map isn't saying much in the way of a forecast into which you can sink your teeth IMO. This is pretty much just a bunch of mishmash IMO. Love him or hate him, JB to his credit put out something with specific anomaly ranges awhile back as regards both snow and temperatures. This Accuwx map gives me little clue about either for the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If I were a forecaster, I wouldn't even want to hazard a guess for large areas of the Southeast, where a depressing winter of only 50% normal snowfall vs the exuberance of a 150% winter, equates to a total of 6 hours of moderately heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 10/15/2014 winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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