WidreMann Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 That's about right for that period. The period between 1970-2014 has a couple of long stretches that sucked big time…the 90's and 2005-2013. In fact the 10 year average from 2005-2014 is almost as bad as what we saw in the 90's. The 60's were a great decade.09/10 and, to a lesser extent, 08/09 were actually okay around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 12, 2014 Share Posted October 12, 2014 09/10 and, to a lesser extent, 08/09 were actually okay around here. OK, we can start the winter madness now.... Widremann is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The Eurasian snow growth has been rather impressive thus far...and pattern doesn't look unfavorable going forward http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/?p=3082045 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 The Eurasian snow growth has been rather impressive thus far...and pattern doesn't look unfavorable going forward http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44473-and-we-begin/?p=3082045 Hey Grit, what are your thoughts on how the SAI is progressing? The SCE is looking rather robust and looks to continue to build, as you mentioned. Cpick on the main board seems to have some concerns about the SAI, given the above normal starting point, once again. Also, the OPI came in less than -3 yesterday but dropped almost to neutral today (-0.19). The CPC says the AO should drop from here...probably near -3 or so. Nino is still dawdling and I'd love to see the Aleutian low come back, but all in all, things are looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Hey Grit, what are your thoughts on how the SAI is progressing? The SCE is looking rather robust and looks to continue to build, as you mentioned. Cpick on the main board seems to have some concerns about the SAI, given the above normal starting point, once again. Also, the OPI came in less than -3 yesterday but dropped almost to neutral today (-0.19). The CPC says the AO should drop from here...probably near -3 or so. Nino is still dawdling and I'd love to see the Aleutian low come back, but all in all, things are looking good. Yeah, we had the high starting point again with the SAI, but the pattern going forward looks more favorable than last year. Here's Oct 13-31 from last year. Below normal heights across northern Eurasia and north of there into the Arctic. While this year, the AO is forecast to take another dip. Euro Ensemble has some above normal heights in far north Eurasia/Siberia and into the Arctic. It's not perfect, but it's pretty good. So, I think SCE (snow cover extent) looks excellent. My guess at this point is that the SAI and OPI will point to a -AO winter, but not strongly so. By this point next week, we should have a good handle on how the OPI will turn out. Here's how it looked last October...by Oct 15-20, it had honed in on the final number which is how it is designed (i.e. to hone in on the final number the farther you go into Oct). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 09/10 and, to a lesser extent, 08/09 were actually okay around here. They were, but if you take the past 10 years, we had 4 seasons right at average, 09/10 was a little above, and then we had 6 flat out duds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Hey Grit, what are your thoughts on how the SAI is progressing? The SCE is looking rather robust and looks to continue to build, as you mentioned. Cpick on the main board seems to have some concerns about the SAI, given the above normal starting point, once again. Also, the OPI came in less than -3 yesterday but dropped almost to neutral today (-0.19). The CPC says the AO should drop from here...probably near -3 or so. Nino is still dawdling and I'd love to see the Aleutian low come back, but all in all, things are looking good. Just looking at years that had a -AO, -QBO, +PDO and neutral positive to weak Nino I come up with 5 seasons, 3 were blockbusters for RDU and 2 were between 4-5". The average came out to 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Yeah, we had the high starting point again with the SAI, but the pattern going forward looks more favorable than last year. Here's Oct 13-31 from last year. Below normal heights across northern Eurasia and north of there into the Arctic. While this year, the AO is forecast to take another dip...Euro Ensemble has some above normal heights in far north Eurasia/Siberia and into the Arctic. It's not perfect, but it's pretty good. So, I think SCE (snow cover extent) looks excellent. My guess at this point is that the SAI and OPI will point to a -AO winter, but not strongly so. By this point next week, we should have a good handle on how the OPI will turn out. Here's how it looked last October...by Oct 15-20, it had honed in on the final number which it is how it is designed (i.e. to hone in on the final number the farther you go into Oct). Thanks man. That shows how much I know about the OPI. I was under the impression that the end result was sort of the mean of all of the daily values throughout the month. Feel free to laugh furiously now. Anyway, it has looked good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Just looking at years that had a -AO, -QBO, +PDO and neutral positive to weak Nino I come up with 5 seasons, 3 were blockbusters for RDU and 2 were between 4-5". The average came out to 11". I have no ideas what years you're referencing, but I'm going to go out on a limb and surmise that with an average of 11", one of those years is 2000. Amirite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 I have no ideas what years you're referencing, but I'm going to go out on a limb and surmise that with an average of 11", one of those years is 2000. Amirite? Nope...1959, 1977, 1980, 1994, 2004. 2000 and 2002 were both fluke storms in fairly "terrible" winters, end to end. We just got lucky and everything lined up perfectly. Look at the 5h composites below, hard to believe we had two of our greatest winter storms in those years. \\\\ compare to say 1980... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 ^ Gotcha, Pack. I'm surprised at that. 1980 was the big March snow. I have no idea how much fell in DJF. I'll go back and look, but yeah, those patterns are quite different! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 They were, but if you take the past 10 years, we had 4 seasons right at average, 09/10 was a little above, and then we had 6 flat out duds. At KATL for the last ten winters, they had four "duds" (T to 0.1"), two below average (0.5-1.4"), and four well above avg. (4.2-7.1" or 210-355% of average) for a total of 23.5" or ~120% of the ten year longterm avg. The four well above average seasons have been within only the last six years, a very rare occurence of such a concentration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 As others on this site are discussing, snow coverage is doing great in Asia. This is a very good sign for the upcoming winter. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 At KATL for the last ten winters, they had four "duds" (T to 0.1"), two below average (0.5-1.4"), and four well above avg. (4.2-7.1" or 210-355% of average) for a total of 23.5" or ~120% of the ten year longterm avg. The four well above average seasons have been within only the last six years, a very rare occurence of such a concentration. There are two possibilities: 1) That is a coincidence (just a statistical anomaly with no reason) or 2) It is evidence of a baseline shift, driven by a force (maybe solar?). If it's the latter, maybe we should expect more upcoming years to be like that. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 There are two possibilities: 1) That is a coincidence (just a statistical anomaly with no reason) or 2) It is evidence of a baseline shift, driven by a force (maybe solar?). If it's the latter, maybe we should expect more upcoming years to be like that. Who knows. CR, If it isn't just a coincidence, I'd also be wondering about overall weaker solar as much as anything. If it is solar, look out for at least the next couple of decades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 There are two possibilities: 1) That is a coincidence (just a statistical anomaly with no reason) or 2) It is evidence of a baseline shift, driven by a force (maybe solar?). If it's the latter, maybe we should expect more upcoming years to be like that. Who knows. Rare things do happen by coincidence, however I'm betting there's something atmospherical at play here. I don't know what, but something. Something atmosperical. Solar activity has been sort of wonky in recent years, right? Maybe that causes an atmospherical (three times ) affect that produces such an anomaly. I wouldn't think the magnetic north flip would create enough of an atmospherical (now it's just silly ) impact by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 CR, If it isn't just a coincidence, I'd also be wondering about overall weaker solar as much as anything. If it is solar, look out for at least the next couple of decades! Fingers crossed! Rare things do happen by coincidence, however I'm betting there's something atmospherical at play here. I don't know what, but something. Something atmosperical. Solar activity has been sort of wonky in recent years, right? Maybe that causes an atmospherical (three times ) affect that produces such an anomaly. I wouldn't think the magnetic north flip would create enough of an atmospherical (now it's just silly ) impact by itself. I don't think it's coincidence either. An atmospherical agent is at work here. Bollocks on so many atmospherical references. Bollocks, I say! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Nope...1959, 1977, 1980, 1994, 2004. 2000 and 2002 were both fluke storms in fairly "terrible" winters, end to end. We just got lucky and everything lined up perfectly. Look at the 5h composites below, hard to believe we had two of our greatest winter storms in those years. I remember watching our massive snow piles melt away in like 80 degree temperatures in February a couple weeks after the storm. IIRC, those two weeks in late January (with four winter storms) were the only wintry events of the winter of 1999-2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 Good looking Eurasian snow advance pattern on today's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44635-extreme-october-blocking-event-hints-at-ao-winter/?p=3082459 I had a similar reaction as millwx when reading that wsi blog post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 13, 2014 Share Posted October 13, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/44635-extreme-october-blocking-event-hints-at-ao-winter/?p=3082459 I had a similar reaction as millwx when reading that wsi blog post Lol he just puts it out there. Not really anything bad but has a great opinion about things like that. He has had some great write ups in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 A few tidbits regading the AO/ENSO combo for DJF at KATL since 1950-1: - A whopping 7 of 7 (100%) of Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (i.e., top 20 cold winter) - Only 2 of 14 (14%) of non-Nino's with a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (1962-3 and 1978-9) - Only 1 of 14 (7%) of Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (1963-4) - Only 1 of 29 (3%) of non-Nino's without a sub -0.9 DJF AO were ~3 or more colder than normal (1981-2) This all tells me that the combo of El Nino AND a strong -AO is crucial for chances for a very cold KATL (and much of the SE US) winter. Because the correlation of November AO and DJF AO is strong and a lot stronger than Oct. AO is to DJF AO, I'll be very anxious to see how Nov.'s AO ends up. Note that I'm not addressing wintry precip. in the above stats. Seven of the 11 (64%) KATL DJF's since 1950-1 that were ~3 or more colder than normal had above normal SN/IP and/or a major ZR. The average SN/IP for the 11 winters was 2.6” or 130% of normal. Interestingly, the three coldest (1976-7, 1977-8, 1962-3) had below normal SN/IP though 1962-3 had a major ZR. **Edited several times** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 OPI at -0.97 today after -0.19 yesterday. AO still looks to tank again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 OPI at -0.97 today after -0.19 yesterday. AO still looks to tank again. Based on yesterday's GEFS, the October AO is projected to end up sub -1, meaning very likely a top 10 -AO since 1950. The partial correlation of a strongly -AO in Oct. to a below mean -AO averaged over DJF is encouraging. However, based on research I did yesterday and consistent with my post from last night, the November AO will have more of a say-so as far as the most likely winter -AO because that correlation is actually (though it shouldn't be surprising) much stronger than the Oct. correlation. If we can get a sub -1 AO this November as well as an actual El Niño, then prospects for a cold DJF would increase quite a bit IMO. Regarding above average wintry precip. chances in and near the CAD regions, I'm still pulling for a warm KATL Oct. to signal the best shot at this as per the correlation I found when a Niño winter is cool to cold. It remains too close to call for a warm KATL Oct. due to a forecasted sig. cooldown even though the first half will end up much warmer than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Based on yesterday's GEFS, the October AO is projected to end up sub -1, meaning very likely a top 10 -AO since 1950. The partial correlation of a strongly -AO in Oct. to a below mean -AO averaged over DJF is encouraging. However, based on research I did yesterday and consistent with my post from last night, the November AO will have more of a say-so as far as the most likely winter -AO because that correlation is actually (though it shouldn't be surprising) much stronger than the Oct. correlation. If we can get a sub -1 AO this November as well as an actual El Niño, then prospects for a cold DJF would increase quite a bit IMO. Regarding above average wintry precip. chances in and near the CAD regions, I'm still pulling for a warm KATL Oct. to signal the best shot at this as per the correlation I found when a Niño winter is cool to cold. It remains too close to call for a warm KATL Oct. due to a forecasted sig. cooldown even though the first half will end up much warmer than normal. The odds of at least El Nino seem to be increasing. The odds of a warm October (by your standards) seem to be ever in your favor. The odds of a -AO for October seem to be quite good as well. We'll have to see about November, but I hope it works out in line with your research! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Check the current snow coverage in Asia. Definitely a little better than last year. From yesterday: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif One year ago: http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2013/ims2013286_asiaeurope.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I posted in the MA subforum about potential analogs using enso and Eurasian SCE. The short version of my tl;dr post is that IF this year ends up in the top 15 years for SCE in Oct then you can pull 76-77, 77-78, 06-07, 12-13, and 13-14. All were neutrals or weak Nino's. DJF composite: The October composite looks like this: MTD October is almost a perfect match with anomaly placement (this will change before the month is out but interesting nonetheless) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Yeah Bob, we've had a good first half of October. Latest OPI came in at -1.86. SAI is doing well, and nice to see another AO dip upcoming. Let's hope we don't have a Kurt Cousins type second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Yeah Bob, we've had a good first half of October. Latest OPI came in at -1.86. SAI is doing well, and nice to see another AO dip upcoming. Let's hope we don't have a Kurt Cousins type second half. Regarding the Oct. AO: The 10/1-14 averaged AO is at an impressive ~-1.6. Today's GEFS mean forecast out two weeks looks similar to, if not a touch more negative than, yesterday through the two week forecast fwiw. I'm estimating that the combo of that and the actuals through 10/14 is giving a 10/1-28 projected averaged AO of a very impressive ~-1.5. So, something close to -1.5 for the entire month is not at all far-fetched. If it were to be near -1.5, only 2009's -1.540, 2012's -1.514, and 2002's -1.489 would be nearby going back to 1950! The next one is the not even close -1.243 of 1979. What happened in the subsequent DJF's AO for these three years (vs. mean of -0.35)? - 2002: -0.65 - 2009: -3.42 (lowest AO since at least 1950) - 2012: -1.12 So, we got a record low AO, a strongly -AO, and a modest -AO (vs. -0.35 mean). So, this would be encouraging for the chances at a solid -AO this winter. If Nov. were to also have a strong -AO and if we get El Nino, it would be looking extremely encouraging for strong -AO chances for DJF as well as quite a cold winter. Add in a warm KATL Oct. and I'm happier than Brick in the middle of a tornado, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The winter of 2002-2003 was one with quite a few moderate snow events, but no "Big Daddys" with the exception of the clipper in January, which somehow dropped a foot of snow in some areas of the foothills and a foot of snow in the OBX. And, of course, that had the great ice storm many of us North Carolinians remember very well in December. It also had an epic sleet storm in February, though I think last March's ice/sleet storm topped it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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