GaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'll take a lot of 2 and 3 inch snow storms, too. But we have not had a big one around here in a while. Brick or anyone, Back to being serious. How often has RDU received an individual event (not season total) that was 6"+? Once every ~how many years? This will help me put it into perspective. How many times has RDU gotten a single storm with 6"+ since, say, 1980 or better yet, since, say 1970 or even earlier? My wild guess is about once every 3 years although I suppose about once every two or four years wouldn't be shocking. For comparison, I know KATL has gotten a 3.5"+ SN and/or IP event about once every 3.5 years. TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Brick or anyone, Back to being serious. How often has RDU received an individual event (not season total) that was 6"+? Once every ~how many years? This will help me put it into perspective. How many times has RDU gotten a single storm with 6"+ since, say, 1980 or better yet, since, say 1970 or even earlier? My wild guess is about once every 3 years although I suppose about once every two or four years wouldn't be shocking. For comparison, I know KATL has gotten a 3.5"+ SN and/or IP event about once every 3.5 years. TIA! Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too. Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due. And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that. In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years. Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too. Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due. And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that. In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years. Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's. We are due, and I think it's going to happen this winter. The law of averages has to catch up with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too. Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due. And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that. In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years. Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's. I looked at the daily totals going back to 1970, and I counted 12 events 5.5 or higher (though I might have missed one). That would put us at a 6"+ event every 3.58 years. I'm sure your research is much better than my eyeballing, but we're in the same ballpark. Anyway, we'll break the streak this year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 “Single” best “RDU” storm for each year (my opinion of course): From http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/ 2013 - 2014(same storm) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.freezing.20140213.gif 2012 – 2013(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif 2011 – 2012(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif 2010 – 2011 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/ 2009 – 2010 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ 2008 – 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090120/accum.20090120.gif 2007 – 2008(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080119/ 2006 – 2007(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070118/ 2005 – 2006(very bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20051215.gif 2004 – 2005(bad year lots of very small event like this one) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif 2003 – 2004 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif 2002 – 2003 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/ 2000 – 2001 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ 1999 – 2000 (maybe this is cherry picking, but…) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It's still there, it's bad mojo imo. Looks like if you try to remove and save it doesn't work. You have to have at least one character in the line for it to stick. It's working now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Larry, I did a basic analysis of the storms you listed. A few things stand out. Here's the breakdown of the indices on storm day: There are 3 atypical storm (3/09, 3/93, 1/62). The 93 storm was one for the ages. I'm not sure analyzing that is worth much. Very explosive setup that we can only hope to see again. Here's the h5 composite for the entire sample: Composite for the "normal" storms: Composite for the atypical storms: The atypical storms are powderkeg setups. Really not worth go over much on those. If we see anything like that being modeled anytime in the next 10 years we can discuss. LOL A few things stand out in the numerical data and composite for more normal types of events. Numerically, the NAO isn't that important other than you don't want it too positive. That's a no brainer. But it also appears that you don't want it too negative either. That surprised me a little considering the latitude. I did find a connection with the behavior of the nao and I'll go over that shortly. The PNA as expected is neutral or positive with all typical storms. Nothing worth discussing there. We know a -pna sucks for big storms almost every time. Just like at the MA latitude, the state of the AO appears to be the most important index. The averages show this pretty well. Take out the atypical storms and it really shows up. There are 3 storms where the ao appears nearly neutral on the storm day but they are all on the heels of a significant to very significant blocking period. Is there a connection with storms in the south during the relaxation of a -ao? I'm not really sure. Sample is too small but it was pretty pronounced on 3 of the storms so it's worth considering in the future when tracking a threat. The h5 composite for the typical events showed a couple things. Just like up here, you want to see a 50/50'ish when tracking a larger threat. Shows up on the mean pretty easily but further south then where my region likes to see it. Makes complete sense. Take a look at the height anomaly just east of Iceland. Pretty prominent. I generally don't look in that area on the model runs but maybe I should look harder in the future. Ridging up in AK and near Iceland would do a good job driving cold down your way and the composite highlights that pretty well. I'm not really sure what it means but I didn't expect the highest height anomaly on the composite to be there. Intriguing if nothing else. When I took a look at the NAO behavior and 10" storms in DC a couple weeks ago it was pretty stark that the behavior has more importance than the numerical value (except for +1 and above). Phase changes and activity seem like a better thing to track than the # itself. Here's some graphs of the NAO for typical storms. They are 14 day graphs with storm day on the 7 of each. 2/26/52: 3/11/60 1/12/82 3/24/83 1/22/87 1/18/92 1/11/09 2/12/10 Only one of the storms had a solid and stable -nao. The other ones are closer to neutral but active. If I lived down your way I would be rooting for as much -AO time as I could get during the season and not worry as much about the NAO. If a threat appeared I would watch the NAO for activity and phase changes in concert with the threat. It seems there is a bias for storms coming on the relaxation of the ao/nao but again, very small sample size. Can't overthink it. Each storm is unique. I didn't double check my data so if there are errors let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I looked at the daily totals going back to 1970, and I counted 12 events 5.5 or higher (though I might have missed one). That would put us at a 6"+ event every 3.58 years. I'm sure your research is much better than my eyeballing, but we're in the same ballpark. Anyway, we'll break the streak this year for sure. That's about right for that period. The period between 1970-2014 has a couple of long stretches that sucked big time…the 90's and 2005-2013. In fact the 10 year average from 2005-2014 is almost as bad as what we saw in the 90's. The 60's were a great decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 “Single” best “RDU” storm for each year (my opinion of course): From http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/ 2013 - 2014(same storm) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.freezing.20140213.gif 2012 – 2013(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif 2011 – 2012(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif 2010 – 2011 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/ 2009 – 2010 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ 2008 – 2009 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090120/accum.20090120.gif 2007 – 2008(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080119/ 2006 – 2007(bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070118/ 2005 – 2006(very bad year) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20051215.gif 2004 – 2005(bad year lots of very small event like this one) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif 2003 – 2004 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif 2002 – 2003 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/ 2000 – 2001 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/ 1999 – 2000 (maybe this is cherry picking, but…) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Man, that stretch from 2004 to 2008 was horrible. I think we get something like the Jan 2-3, 2002 storm this winter. That or something like the Dec 25-26, 2010 event would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Also looking at what Falls Lake posted, it looks like we have had 7 events in Raleigh of around 6 inches of snow or more since 2000. Four of those occurred in Jan, two in Feb, and one in Dec. Jan looks like the best month for big snow events around here since the Carolina Crusher in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Man, that stretch from 2004 to 2008 was horrible. I think we get something like the Jan 2-3, 2002 storm this winter. That or something like the Dec 25-26, 2010 event would be awesome. I love winter weather but I don't want to see this again: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I love winter weather but I don't want to see this again: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/ That's the storm that helped me meet my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjunkie Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Dude thlat must have been awesome. I bet you had snow on the ground virtually all winter! January was quiet, but man, December and February were awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 So, Falls' post has made me want to do the same thing for HKY. These are the storms that appear to have had the greatest impact on the Hickory area since the year 2000. The greatest total for any single event is approximately 8 inches. The greatest single events by month fall out this way: December: 3 events January: 6 events February: 5 events March: 1 event So, the months of January and February are about equally likely to produce the single greatest winter event for any given winter here in the Hickory area. 2013-2014: ~8 inches snow (Feb) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif 2012-2013: ~1 inch snow (Feb) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif 2011-2012: trace snow (Feb) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif 2010-2011: ~7 inches snow (Dec) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/ 2009-2010: ~8 inches snow (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/ ~8 inches snow (Dec) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/ 2008-2009: ~6 inches snow (Mar) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/ 2007-2008: ~4 inches snow (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080117/ 2006-2007: ~1 inch snow (Feb) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070201/ 2005-2006: ~0.5 inch ice (Dec) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20051215.gif 2004-2005: ~2 inches snow and ~0.25 inch ice (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif 2003-2004: ~3 inches snow (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040125.gif 2002-2003: ~8 inches snow (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ 2001-2002: ~3 inches snow (Jan) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ 2000-2001: ~2 inches snow (Feb) http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20010222/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Just like at the MA latitude, the state of the AO appears to be the most important index. The averages show this pretty well. Take out the atypical storms and it really shows up. There are 3 storms where the ao appears nearly neutral on the storm day but they are all on the heels of a significant to very significant blocking period. Is there a connection with storms in the south during the relaxation of a -ao? I'm not really sure. Sample is too small but it was pretty pronounced on 3 of the storms so it's worth considering in the future when tracking a threat. The h5 composite for the typical events showed a couple things. Just like up here, you want to see a 50/50'ish when tracking a larger threat. Shows up on the mean pretty easily but further south then where my region likes to see it. Makes complete sense. Very nice work Bob. Yep, the farther south 50/50 anomaly is as important as any feature I'd say...for suppressing the southern stream storm track and holding in the cold air. Sometimes it's in the form of a -NAO block, and sometimes in the form of an extended trough in E Canada down into the NE. For the NAO on the 'normal' composite, it's possible that the NAO anomalies are more west based in the days prior to the storm, transitioning to more of an east based look on the day of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 An interpretation of the latest Euro model forecast through the winter... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Bob, wow, very nice work and very interesting results! I like how you break out typical and atypical as well as your NAO bar graphs. I may try to refer to this this winter. Thanks for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 An interpretation of the latest Euro model forecast through the winter... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077 Looks like a transition to winter occurs toward the new year and then it looks almost "ideal". I'd take this and be happy if it occurred this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Thank you and nicely done Bob. I appreciate your contributions to this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 We are due, and I think it's going to happen this winter. The law of averages has to catch up with us. CR/Pack, thks for the RDU stats. Brick, if you are nice & allow ATL to have a warm Oct., I think your chances at a big snow would be higher. I hope you'll consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 That's the storm that helped me meet my wife. The damage that has caused, is why we retired the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The one thing that can help us this winter, and we can actually see, is the snow cover buildup over the Northern Hemisphere(especially Siberia). Currently snow cover is looking good. I would like to see more over the Bearing land areas (E. Siberia - Alaska), but it looks like there will be storms in those areas during the next week. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ N. America snow accumulations at hour 162 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The one thing that can help us this winter, and we can actually see, is the snow cover buildup over the Northern Hemisphere(especially Siberia). Currently snow cover is looking good. I would like to see more over the Bearing land areas (E. Siberia - Alaska), but it looks like there will be storms in those areas during the next week. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/ N. America snow accumulations at hour 162 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Yep, some nice gains over the last 24 in Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I've been eyeballing the CFS daily and have noticed the recent trend of cooling and wetting for the conus for the DJF period. This is probably just noise, and i'm sure it will bounce around a lot more, but it's at least good to see it trending in the right direction. For the DJF period, below are the E1 and E3 temp and precip maps for North America. E1 Temps: E3 Temps (notice the cooling trend for North America as a whole): E1 Precip: E3 Precip (notice the increased signal for above average precip across the southern US): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Get down with OPI, yeah you know I 3.91...continuing to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 North America snow coverage reached an all-time high for the month of September. http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/all-time-record-north-america-snow-cover-hits-45-year-high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 OPI coming back to earth now at 1.67. Aleutian low gone too... Recurving typhoon may bring things back around in a few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 OPI coming back to earth now at 1.67. Aleutian low gone too... Recurving typhoon may bring things back around in a few days though. We never really had a solid, established Aleutian low in the first place. But the models keep suggesting one will form. Not really worried yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 OPI coming back to earth now at 1.67. Aleutian low gone too... Recurving typhoon may bring things back around in a few days though. Things look pretty good right now in the mid-long range for OPI/SAI. PNA going up, AO going down. Not perfect, but pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 This is all great news everyone. I'd like to see this continue over the next 20 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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