2014-15 winter outlook

[Brick Tamland]

Well, it looks like October will be warm. Going to have more days in the high 70s and lower 80s than in the 60s. Maybe it will be a cold winter. But will it mean snow, too? If it is too cold, it usually just means cold and dry here.

[GaWx]

Well, it looks like October will be warm. Going to have more days in the high 70s and lower 80s than in the 60s. Maybe it will be a cold winter. But will it mean snow, too? If it is too cold, it usually just means cold and dry here.

 

 Brick,

 The correlation I found for warm Octobers has nothing to do with cold winter chances. The correlation is that IF there actually is a Nino and IF there is a cold winter, it would have a better shot at having above average wintry precip. (including ice) if the preceding October were warm vs. if it were cool. My stats are ATL based. So, I don't even know if this would work for RDU. I think CR was going to look into this. However, I already know that it would be a challenge to get as much data as I had for ATL, which goes back to the late 1800's and includes extensive old newspapers based research on ZR, not easy to get.

 

 

Edit: Keep in mind that RDU is sometimes affected by strictly Atlantic coast storms in addition to Gulf storms whereas as ATL is virtually not at all affected by Atlantic storms as regards snowfall. So, each individual winter can vary widely between the two cities anomalywise.

[FallsLake]

Don't want to be the bringer of bad news, but the US Energy Department thinks this winter will be warmer than last year. They did say there were still some things in the pattern that would allow some cold(and storms) to effect the east coast.  

 

http://www.wral.com/us-predicts-lower-heating-bills-this-winter/14052699/

[DaculaWeather]

I'm going to save that and send it to them at the end of winter. 

[machetemoonlight]

Don't want to be the bringer of bad news, but the US Energy Department thinks this winter will be warmer than last year. They did say there were still some things in the pattern that would allow some cold(and storms) to effect the east coast.  

 

http://www.wral.com/us-predicts-lower-heating-bills-this-winter/14052699/

Wonder what their track record on annual predictions is like...

[DaculaWeather]

Someone is going to get screwed this winter... from that article

 

"Natural gas wholesale prices are higher than they were last year, in part because last year's cold winter drained gas in storage. Storage levels are 11 percent below their five-year average for this time of year. New England prices are higher because there is not enough space on existing pipelines to carry the increasing amount of gas needed in the region for heating and generating electricity."

[GaWx]

Don't want to be the bringer of bad news, but the US Energy Department thinks this winter will be warmer than last year. They did say there were still some things in the pattern that would allow some cold(and storms) to effect the east coast.

http://www.wral.com/us-predicts-lower-heating-bills-this-winter/14052699/

Falls,

I'd probably make a similar prediction. Why? Well, keep in mind that this is a national population and energy usage weighted forecast as opposed to regional. Last DJFM

was the coldest on record for Chicago and nearby areas of the upper Midwest! The odds are obviously near 100% that this winter will not be as cold there and that area is heavily populated and is a big user of heating fuel because it's way colder than most other parts of the US. As a result, last winter was one of the coldest ever when weighted based on national heating fuel based heating degree days and, as a result, it produced the largest drawdown of natural gas since records started 20 years ago and by a good margin! Why wouldn't they predict a warmer heating fuel based winter?

Not surprisingly, I have seen no forecast that isn't quite a bit less cold in the upper Midwest vs. last winter. At the same time, many forecasts so far have the SE US much colder than last winter. Remember that last winter, despite January being solidly colder than normal (Atlanta was a whopping six below normal) and the winter being exciting with quite possibly at or near the best overall CAD in at least many years and well above normal wintry precip. in many areas of the SE (including KATL's 250% of normal SN/IP AND a major ZR, something they get (1+) only about once every five winters), was still only about one colder than normal when averaging DJF. WxBell, though they're forecasting much less cold for the upper Midwest than last winter, has the cold centered further SE with near -4 for the bulk of the inland SE! It actually has ATL near the levels of 2009-10, which was the coldest there since 1977-8 and a top ten cold winter! Imo, if we actually are able to get the weak Niño that has been expected, a +PDO (which I've been giving an 80% chance averaged over DJF), and a -NAO (going with about a 2 out of 3 chance as of now), then I could see another 2009-10 type of cold winter as well as a chance for a bit colder! However, even if the SE and nearby areas were to actually be very cold like 2009-10, the country as a whole could easily not be as cold as last winter when weighted by population/heating fuel usage.

Does this make sense?

Edit: To add to what I said, the Energy Dept. is conservative and quite possibly is assuming near normals in most areas based on NOAA forecasts. Also, with El Nino's, climo says that the upper Midwest averages warmer than normal (though that may not be the case for weak Nino's, alone) while the SE averages colder than normal. So, perhaps they're assuming something like that though it is very likely they're not assuming another 2009-10 type of very cold winter in the SE.

Edit #2: If we also get the warm October, I'd sincerely feel that Atlanta and nearby

areas could very well match, if not exceed, last winter's well above normal wintry precip.! That would obviously be a big feat.

[FallsLake]

Falls,

I'd probably make a similar prediction. Why? Well, keep in mind that this is a national population and energy usage weighted forecast as opposed to regional. Last DJFM

was the coldest on record for Chicago and nearby areas of the upper Midwest! The odds are obviously near 100% that this winter will not be as cold there and that area is heavily populated and is a big user of heating fuel because it's way colder than most other parts of the US. As a result, last winter was one of the coldest ever when weighted based on national heating fuel based heating degree days and, as a result, it produced the largest drawdown of natural gas since records started 20 years ago and by a good margin! Why wouldn't they predict a warmer heating fuel based winter?

Not surprisingly, I have seen no forecast that isn't quite a bit less cold in the upper Midwest vs. last winter. At the same time, many forecasts so far have the SE US much colder than last winter. Remember that last winter, despite January being solidly colder than normal (Atlanta was a whopping six below normal) and the winter being exciting with quite possibly at or near the best overall CAD in at least many years and well above normal wintry precip. in many areas of the SE (including KATL's 250% of normal SN/IP AND a major ZR, something they get (1+) only about once every five winters), was still only about one colder than normal when averaging DJF. WxBell, though they're forecasting much less cold for the upper Midwest than last winter, has the cold centered further SE with near -4 for the bulk of the inland SE! It actually has ATL near the levels of 2009-10, which was the coldest there since 1977-8 and a top ten cold winter! Imo, if we actually are able to get the weak Niño that has been expected, a +PDO (which I've been giving an 80% chance averaged over DJF), and a -NAO (going with about a 2 out of 3 chance as of now), then I could see another 2009-10 type of cold winter as well as a chance for a bit colder! However, even if the SE and nearby areas were to actually be very cold like 2009-10, the country as a whole could easily not be as cold as last winter when weighted by population/heating fuel usage.

Does this make sense?

Edit: To add to what I said, the Energy Dept. is conservative and quite possibly is assuming near normals in most areas based on NOAA forecasts. Also, with El Nino's, climo says that the upper Midwest averages warmer than normal (though that may not be the case for weak Nino's, alone) while the SE averages colder than normal. So, perhaps they're assuming something like that though it is very likely they're not assuming another 2009-10 type of very cold winter in the SE.

Edit #2: If we also get the warm October, I'd sincerely feel that Atlanta and nearby

areas could very well match, if not exceed, last winter's well above normal wintry precip.! That would obviously be a big feat.

Thanks Larry! And I do agree with your assessment. **But I will say last years $600 January electric bill hurt**

It will be interesting to see how this winter's pattern sets up. From other post it really seems we need that week Nino to establish itself soon. Neutral years have not been great in general (for at least RDU).

[Cold Rain]

Thanks Larry! And I do agree with your assessment. **But I will say last years $600 January electric bill hurt**

It will be interesting to see how this winter's pattern sets up. From other post it really seems we need that week Nino to establish itself soon. Neutral years have not been great in general (for at least RDU).

 

Man you need some new winders!

[DaculaWeather]

Bastardi a few minutes ago...

 

Healthy negative AO for winter on ECMWF. I like our longstanding ideas,may trend colder tho as we get closer. Looks nasty to me

Will see what the guru ( JMA has) Given ECMWF look last year, what happened, this year has chance to be as big or bigger for nation as whole

[FallsLake]

Man you need some new winders!

Windows are actually great (double pain, etc.); but I have 5 kids which three are teenagers (long hot showers, etc.), big house for all the kids, electric heat, and a wife who is a herpetologist (lizards, frogs, turtles) that uses lots of heat lamps. It's not windows I need but an alternate (free) source of electricity.

[Cold Rain]

Windows are actually great (double pain, etc.); but I have 5 kids which three are teenagers (long hot showers, etc.), big house for all the kids, electric heat, and a wife who is a herpetologist (lizards, frogs, turtles) that uses lots of heat lamps. It's not windows I need but an alternate (free) source of electricity.

 

Haha!  You need to have random brown-outs then.  Electric heat gets expensive.  We have a dual zone heat pump system.  I'm not a huge fan of it.  Very warm or very cool temps are hard for it to manage.  The electric heat strips routinely engage in the winter, and there goes the power bill.  I do have a window problem.  Very drafty.  Plus, the heat pump is old.  Our family room sits over the garage and stays hot in the summer and cold in the winter.  We never get that room regulated, which sucks, because that's where we spend most of our time.

[Bob Chill]

Hey guys, I'm curious about how what common lw features are present for decent events in ga/sc. The ma shares a good bit in common with nc with subtle differences making a difference. But overall we look for the same stuff.

Can someone give me 6-10 notable storm dates for ga/sc since 1948? Just mostly snow storms and not ice assaults.

[Solak]

Just posted this in the banter thread, but maybe it belongs here as well?

 

US predicts lower heating bills this winter
 

 

 

NEW YORK — Heating bills should be lower this winter because the deep freeze that chilled much of the nation last year is unlikely to return.
Read more at http://www.wral.com/us-predicts-lower-heating-bills-this-winter/14052699/#IaOw4aIsUEHFSeTZ.99

[Brick Tamland]

 

Just posted this in the banter thread, but maybe it belongs here as well?

 

US predicts lower heating bills this winter

 

 

 

NEW YORK — Heating bills should be lower this winter because the deep freeze that chilled much of the nation last year is unlikely to return.

Read more at http://www.wral.com/us-predicts-lower-heating-bills-this-winter/14052699/#IaOw4aIsUEHFSeTZ.99

 

 

 

They must not be reading this board.

[valkhorn]

Just a thought. When trying to figure out the averages based off of N number of analog years, shouldn't each year be weighted based on signal strength rather than simply averaged together?

 

Plus, if a single storm can result in above average precip during the winter, wouldn't it be more logical to take average precip rates for analog years and remove abberative storms?

 

I'm not an expert but I'm good with statistics, so it's something to consider.

[packbacker]

Thanks Larry! And I do agree with your assessment. **But I will say last years $600 January electric bill hurt**

It will be interesting to see how this winter's pattern sets up. From other post it really seems we need that week Nino to establish itself soon. Neutral years have not been great in general (for at least RDU).

Well if you look at neutral positive years (0.3-0.5), you have two winters with a +PDO, 1980 and 2004. Both banner winters, atleast for RDU. Hmmmm

[Cold Rain]

Well if you look at neutral positive years (0.3-0.5), you have two winters with a +PDO, 1980 and 2004. Both banner winters, atleast for RDU. Hmmmm

 

Pack, where do you get snowfall records for RDU?

 

Also, change your avatar!

[jburns]

Windows are actually great (double pain, etc.); but I have 5 kids which three are teenagers (long hot showers, etc.), big house for all the kids, electric heat, and a wife who is a herpetologist (lizards, frogs, turtles) that uses lots of heat lamps. It's not windows I need but an alternate (free) source of electricity.

 

I think I've found your problem.

[packbacker]

Pack, where do you get snowfall records for RDU?

Also, change your avatar!

I have a spreadsheet built that I have been accumulating information on over the years. Allan had a lot of information on RDU snowfall history, he doesn't have it up anymore though.

Avatar will go up soon :-)

[FallsLake]

I think I've found your problem.

lol... I'm just in so much "pain" from the electric bill that the word has to be used everywhere...

[GaWx]

Hey guys, I'm curious about how what common lw features are present for decent events in ga/sc. The ma shares a good bit in common with nc with subtle differences making a difference. But overall we look for the same stuff.

Can someone give me 6-10 notable storm dates for ga/sc since 1948? Just mostly snow storms and not ice assaults.

Bob,

For KATL major SN storms (not talking storms that were major ZR or major IP, alone), it is actually pretty simple in a way. First of all, WSW or SW 500 mb flow for the bulk of it has just about always been the case (VERY few exceptions at most). WNW or even W flow is almost always too dry. SSW flow (and sometimes even SW flow) is often too warm. Consistent with this, the 500 mb trough is often centered at longitudes to the west of the SE US (say, around Mississippi or even further west; if it is further east, it will normally be too dry; if it is too far west (like in SW US), it will often be too warm.) There often is a split 500 mb flow pattern with WSW or SW flow bringing in moisture through a subtropical jet and a cold jet up north supplying Arctic air. Second, there was a Miller A surface low with very few exceptions. Third, that Miller A low usually tracked ENEward from the western Gulf off of TX though it has tracked closer to straight eastward close to the Gulf coast in a few cases as I recall. If I were going to pick a "sweet spot", I'd say just east of or ENE of Brownsville, TX. I believe there were a very few that even tracked a little north of the Gulf coast and those tracked E or maybe even ESE. Fourth, that Miller A has almost always been on the weak to sometimes moderate side while still in the Gulf. Very weak lows have been enough in some cases to produce big snows in the SE. If the low is too strong, that often means it will bring up too much warmth and/or it will track too far north (see below for usual track). Fifth, 850's have almost always been within the 0 to -5 range as opposed to colder. Many were only barely colder than 0C at 850 mb. Sixth, the track of the Miller A is almost always over south GA, north FL, or occasionally central FL as it comes into the SE US. If it is the pretty rare case of tracking over south FL, that will usually mean the northern extent of the main moisture is south of Atlanta in south GA or even north FL. Example: the great coastal SE Miller A snowstorm of ~12/23/1989. Sometimes, even a track over central FL is too far south for Atlanta. Example: the great central GA/central SC Miller A snowstorm of 2/9-10/1973. If it tracks over central GA or further north, it will almost almost always be too warm since the low brings in too much warmth/850's rise above 0C. One exception was the blizzard of March, 1993, whose surface low tracked across part of central GA. That was obviously a one of a kind and shouldn't be considered as anything close to typical for a SE major snow.

On only very rare occasions has a major KATL snow resulted almost entirely from a closed strong upper level low with virtually no surface low. I think the 3/1/2009 was one of these exceptions. Usually, a closed upper level low with no accompanying Miller A won't generate heavy enough snow to be considered major (3.5"+ per my own standards, which occur about once every 3 1/2 years on average). Also, storms that develop off of the SE coast (Atlantic as opposed to Gulf) virtually have never produced a major Atlanta snow because that typically means the bulk of the moisture is too far east by then. However, a place like RDU or Columbia, which gets a lot of their snow from Gulf storms, also sometimes gets major snows from Atlantic systems. Keep in mind that I'm talking mainly from Atlanta's perspective as well as nearby areas. GSP and even CLT to a large extent would do best with similar characteristics to those for Atlanta.

Edit: There is a partial correlation with -NAO months as well as +PDO months for major KATL snows fwiw.

Edit #2: It is very rare for wraparound, alone, to give KATL heavy enough snow to be major. To some extent, I think March of 1993 was a very rare exception as I think a lot of it there was wraparound. That is very much atypical!

[Bob Chill]

Totally agree Larry. I'm interested in looking at h5 composites for specific storm dates. In our area, we've had a decent amount of big storms when the numerical indices would indicate otherwise. Looking at the monthly means is definitely telling but drilling down one more level is interesting. I plotted the NAO for 6 or so 10" the week leading up to and after the event. It made me rethink the numerical index. One very important feature for us is the 50/50 low. It showed up strong on the composite of neutral to positive NAO events. I'm curious as to the composite for your region. 

 

The takeaway from what I looked at for my region is that if we don't have a classic blocking setup then the 50/50 better be present. Since 50/50's without blocking are transient, tracking the progression of that feature is probably the most important medium lead feature to watch. Getting hung up on numerical indices can cloud thinking when threats appear in a more hostile environment. In the MA, a hostile environment is pretty common with the majority of threats. 

[GaWx]

Totally agree Larry. I'm interested in looking at h5 composites for specific storm dates. In our area, we've had a decent amount of big storms when the numerical indices would indicate otherwise. Looking at the monthly means is definitely telling but drilling down one more level is interesting. I plotted the NAO for 6 or so 10" the week leading up to and after the event. It made me rethink the numerical index. One very important feature for us is the 50/50 low. It showed up strong on the composite of neutral to positive NAO events. I'm curious as to the composite for your region. 

 

The takeaway from what I looked at for my region is that if we don't have a classic blocking setup then the 50/50 better be present. Since 50/50's without blocking are transient, tracking the progression of that feature is probably the most important medium lead feature to watch. Getting hung up on numerical indices can cloud thinking when threats appear in a more hostile environment. In the MA, a hostile environment is pretty common with the majority of threats.

Bob,

I do want to add something to what I already said. The surface high track is often coming SEward from the northern Plains/MN and heads over or near the Ohio Valley in many cases I think .

If you want, I can list dates for major KATL snows and then you can research them from whatever perspective you desire such as 50/50 low existence or whatever. Perhaps that feature or lack thereof isn't so crucial way down here since we're further away. If you want that list, how far back would you want me to go? 1950? Further back?

 

** Edited: Another thing to add: El Niño's have been more favorable ENSO than neutral and La Nina's. No surprise. Of 39 majors that were mainly SN as opposed to IP, I count 15 El Nino, 8 neutral, and 10 La Nina's.

[griteater]

Bob - Greenville, SC would share similar snow climo to parts of central and eastern NC.  

 

For Columbia, SC, the 3 biggest snows since 1948 are:

Feb 9-10, 1973: 16.0 inches

Dec 10-11, 1958: 8.8 inches

Feb 12-13, 2010: 8.6 inches

[Bob Chill]

Larry,

Since 48 is fine because I'm using esrl composites.

Grit,

Can you give me the 8 biggest? I want the sample size to be at least that big. I'll divide them into 2 groups if the daily index values show conflicting signals.

The short story of what I've been doing lately is some storms come when things look near perfect and others come when there are conflicting signals. I'm not sure if that applies further south of my region but if it does, it's good to know what to look for when things seem kinda hostile.

For my region it was clearly a cooperative atlantic delivering when the #'s didn't look that good otherwise. It's not that I didn't basically know this stuff already but now I have a clearer understanding and it will help me when going through the medium lead tracking stuff. If there is a glaring feature with the dataset it will be useful for setting expectations when fantasy threats appear.

[griteater]

Grit,

Can you give me the 8 biggest? I want the sample size to be at least that big. I'll divide them into 2 groups if the daily index values show conflicting signals.

 

Sample size is a problem in the deep south Bob  

 

I can round up a larger sample for Charlotte, but I don't have that for Columbia

[Cold Rain]

I have a spreadsheet built that I have been accumulating information on over the years. Allan had a lot of information on RDU snowfall history, he doesn't have it up anymore though.

Avatar will go up soon :-)

 

Awesome!!

 

There's got to be a NWS database of snowfall, I would think....

[packbacker]

Larry,

Since 48 is fine because I'm using esrl composites.

Grit,

Can you give me the 8 biggest? I want the sample size to be at least that big. I'll divide them into 2 groups if the daily index values show conflicting signals.

The short story of what I've been doing lately is some storms come when things look near perfect and others come when there are conflicting signals. I'm not sure if that applies further south of my region but if it does, it's good to know what to look for when things seem kinda hostile.

For my region it was clearly a cooperative atlantic delivering when the #'s didn't look that good otherwise. It's not that I didn't basically know this stuff already but now I have a clearer understanding and it will help me when going through the medium lead tracking stuff. If there is a glaring feature with the dataset it will be useful for setting expectations when fantasy threats appear.

This article may help....

http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-01.pdf

[GaWx]

Larry,

Since 48 is fine because I'm using esrl composites.

 

Bob,

 Here are the storms since 1948 that produced what I consider major (3.5"+) that were mainly snow (not mainly IP or ZR) at KATL (most of these were also major snow producers in parts of SC/NC):

 

- 1/9-10/2011

- 2/12/2010

- 3/1/2009

- 1/2-3/2002

- 3/13/1993

- 1/18/1992

- 1/22/1987

- 3/24/1983

- 1/12-14/1982 (heaviest any one day 1/12; second storm 1/14)

- 1/9/1962

- 3/11/1960

- 2/26/1952

 

 In case you're interested, here are the four majors since 1948 at KATL that had a large portion that was IP:

- 2/12-3/2014

- 1/7/1988 (produced major SN in parts of Carolinas and perhaps some places further north in GA)

- 2/17-18/1979 (produced major SN in parts of Carolinas and perhaps some places further north in GA) (called Pres. Day I storm further north I think)

- 2/15/1958

 

 Per info gathered from a SE poster (Tony), I could see including this one as a predominantly IP major for the city though the bulk of the IP was north of the airport, the official station, which mainly had ZR:

- 3/9/1960

 

 Let me know if you find anything interesting that was common with these ATL storms from your perspective.

 

**Edited several times: As you can see, Atlanta has been on a major roll since 2009 with a whopping four major snows and/or IP's in just six winters vs. the average return period of ~3.5 years. This reminds me of the late 1970's/early 1980's as well as the snowy period of 1884-1906. So, I am wondering if the Atlanta area and much of the SE US has entered a new climo period of more frequent major snows/IP's or else this is just a passing phase that is about to end. Any ideas from Bob or anyone? Please don't say AGW. That's not allowed in this subforum lol. Consider that ATL went from 1963-1978, an overall chilly period, with none though a few were fairly close calls, the great 2/1973 snow was south of there, and there were three major ZR's. 1943-51, a somewhat warm period overall, had none and there weren't even any close calls in terms of amounts although there were a whopping four major ZR's. 1925-33 had none though there was one close call and one major ZR. 1907-16 had none though there were a few close calls and two major ZR's.

 

*Later edit: note that KATL hasn't had a major SN and/or IP in DEC since 1917!! Talk about overdue! They had four during 1880-1917. Maybe they'll finally get one soon?? Interestingly, however, Atlanta has had six major ZR's in DEC since 1917.