2014-15 winter outlook

[Cold Rain]

FYP.  You left off a 0 for GSO.

 

My bad!

 

Idk man, those numbers look kinda sad...LOL

 

I think my 90" in 09-10 may have changed my idea of a good Winter...LOLLL

 

Yeah, unfortunately, numbers are looking low across the board.

 

Where did you get 90" that year?

[Cold Rain]

I started working on my winter weather forecast this weekend, and I am planning to release the forecast on Monday October 27th.

 

I am still conducting my research, but it appears with a weak El Nino, the PDO will help to determine what will happen in the southeast. Right now, I have found five years where there was a trend towards a weak El Nino, and two of the five years had warmer than average temperatures and three of the five years had colder than average temperatures. In the warm years, the PDO was strongly negative. In the cold years, the PDO was positive going neutral, slightly negative and neutral, or positive. So, if the PDO was strongly negative, the temperatures were warmer in the southeast. If the PDO was not strongly negative, the temperatures were cooler than average.

 

Comparing the three analog years where the temperature was below average in the winter, two of the three years had temperatures in the fall above average, and the other was neutral in the southeast.

 

In regards to October, all three years were average to slightly below average in regards to temperature. One common theme was an extremely warm Pacific coast.

 

So, the CFSV2 indicates a positive PDO is looking likely with a weak El Nino. With everything else remaining equal (which it never does happen like this), this would lead to a cold winter in the southeast. I am still conducting my research and will keep you updated with any information that I find along the way.

 

(I can not tell you what my analog years are at the moment as it would affect the release of my winter weather forecast, so please respect the fact I can not give you the analog years right now. So, just take a faith pill that the information I am giving you is accurate).

 

My goals next are to determine how the NAO, AO, and PNA indices ranged during these years. I will also be watching the Siberian Snowfall over the upcoming month to see how quickly the snow grows. I am excited about this process and developing my second winter weather forecast, and my first official winter forecast as a meteorologist!

 

Good to see which way you're leaning!  But if your final forecast isn't cold and snowy, don't bother posting. JK!

[Cold Rain]

Winter outlook from wxedge.com:  Near normal temps and wintry precip for the SE.  Below normal temps and above normal wintry precip for the NE.

 

http://wxedge.com/articles/20140922wxtalknet_winter_2014-2015_forecast

[DaculaWeather]

Bastardi a few minutes ago on Twitter:

 

"Brazilian meteogram for Atlanta winter. Very few days above normal ( around 11C midwinter..streak of below 32 in DEC )"

 

[GaWx]

Steve /folks,
That graph must be referring to high temperatures based on JB's reference to 11C as being the coldest normal at KATL. Also, each line equals 5C. So, this graph is showing every single high in DJF to be below normal. How extraordinary would that be? Well, nothing even close to that has ever happened since at least 1929-30. The two coldest winters on record (since 1879-80) are 1976-7 and 1977-8. Yet, even those had 25 and 24 days, respectively, at or above normal for highs! Actually, for winters since 1929-30, the lowest # of highs at or above normal in DJF was the 18 of 1963-4 (6th coldest winter on record). Now, looking at individual way below normal months since 1930, I couldn't find any without at least one high at or above normal. The lowest number was only one day, which was for 12/1963. Next lowest was for 1/1977, which had two days. The coldest month on record in terms of anomalies and absolutes, 1/1940, still had three days at or above normal (same number as 12/2000).

 

 Based on this analysis, what do I conclude about this ATL Brazilian meteogram for this DJF? 1) It is way out to lunch with its zero highs at or above normal being that the lowest # for winters since 1929-30 was 18 and the #'s for the two coldest winters since 1879-80 were 25 and 24, respectively. 2) However, assuming it doesn't have an extreme cold bias and it is a decent model for long range forecasts, it may be a sign of a very cold winter, especially considering the high likelihood of a weak to possibly low end moderate Niño and +PDO.

[DaculaWeather]

Steve /folks,

That graph must be referring to high temperatures based on JB's reference to 11C as being the coldest normal at KATL. Also, each line equals 5C. So, this graph is showing every single high in DJF to be below normal. How extraordinary would that be? Well, nothing even close to that has ever happenned since at least 1929-30. The two coldest winters on record (since 1879-80) are 1976-7 and 1977-8. Yet, even those had 25 and 24 days, respectively, at or above normal for highs! Actually, for winters since 1929-30, the lowest # of highs at or above normal in DJF was the 18 of 1963-4 (6th coldest winter on record). Now, looking at individual way below normal months since 1930, I couldn't find any without at least one high at or above normal. The lowest number was only one day, which was for 12/1963. Next lowest was for 1/1977, which had two days. The coldest month on record in terms of anomalies and absolutes, 1/1940, still had three days at or above normal (same number as 12/2000).

 

 Based on this analysis, what do I conclude about this ATL Brazilian meteogram for this DJF? 1) It is way out to lunch with its zero highs at or above normal being that the lowest # for winters since 1929-30 was 18 and the #'s for the two coldest winters since 1879-80 were 25 and 24, respectively. 2) However, assuming it doesn't have an extreme cold bias and it is a decent model for long range forecasts, it may be a sign of a very cold winter, especially considering the high likelihood of a weak to possibly low end moderate Niño and +PDO.

Maybe the Japanese know something we don't! Keeping everything crossed that it is correct!

Thanks Larry! 

[griteater]

Also, the NOAA PDO reading for Sept is in at +0.72.  That is up from the reading around +0.15 for both Jul and Aug, so this is a noteworthy increase, likely due to cooling in the NW Pacific.  One would think the Univ of Washington reading will be higher for Sept as well when it comes out.

 

This map is from the NOAA weekly ENSO update and shows the changes in sea surface temperature anomalies over the past 4 weeks, supporting the idea of an increase in the positive PDO number for Sept.

 

[wxjunkie]

My bad!

 

 

Yeah, unfortunately, numbers are looking low across the board.

 

Where did you get 90" that year?

I was living in Berkeley Springs, WV in the eastern panhandle. Thats the year IAD got 73+ and parts of Loudoun and Montgomery counties got over 90"... Pretty amazing stuff. I remember looking out at my deck in February with almost 40 inches on the ground...LOLL

 

I like the area here, but i know im gonna be homesick when Winter comes, because even tho they will never see that amount up there again, there are more threats to watch and you just have the latitude advantage. Earlier sunsets, more cloudy days, just seems more like Winter up there even if there isnt snow on the ground at any given time.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I was living in Berkeley Springs, WV in the eastern panhandle. Thats the year IAD got 73+ and parts of Loudoun and Montgomery counties got over 90"... Pretty amazing stuff. I remember looking out at my deck in February with almost 40 inches on the ground...LOLL

 

I like the area here, but i know im gonna be homesick when Winter comes, because even tho they will never see that amount up there again, there are more threats to watch and you just have the latitude advantage. Earlier sunsets, more cloudy days, just seems more like Winter up there even if there isnt snow on the ground at any given time.

If I want earlier sunsets I just drive 15 minutes to Alabama and the sun sets an hour earlier lol. The sun sets close to 4:30 pm there in December.

[FallsLake]

I was living in Berkeley Springs, WV in the eastern panhandle. Thats the year IAD got 73+ and parts of Loudoun and Montgomery counties got over 90"... Pretty amazing stuff. I remember looking out at my deck in February with almost 40 inches on the ground...LOLL

 

I like the area here, but i know im gonna be homesick when Winter comes, because even tho they will never see that amount up there again, there are more threats to watch and you just have the latitude advantage. Earlier sunsets, more cloudy days, just seems more like Winter up there even if there isnt snow on the ground at any given time.

You definitely will not see anything close to that living in your current location. But, you don't live in a bad spot for being in the SE(prime CAD location). You might be surprised at the number of threats and actual storms you get. Also your right next to the mountains. You can just drive up in elevation to areas in NC that do get close to the numbers.

[NCSNOW]

As winter slowly sinks southward, all of the Canadian provinces can also expect some snow in the coming week:

 

GFS model forecast total snowfall over the next 8 days in Canada.

[DaculaWeather]

Good news for us....

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/is-the-el-nino-dead.html

[Cold Rain]

Good news for us....

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/is-the-el-nino-dead.html

The gist of the article is that El Niño appears unlikely. Why is that good for us? I thought we wanted a weak El Niño.

[Cold Rain]

I was living in Berkeley Springs, WV in the eastern panhandle. Thats the year IAD got 73+ and parts of Loudoun and Montgomery counties got over 90"... Pretty amazing stuff. I remember looking out at my deck in February with almost 40 inches on the ground...LOLL

I like the area here, but i know im gonna be homesick when Winter comes, because even tho they will never see that amount up there again, there are more threats to watch and you just have the latitude advantage. Earlier sunsets, more cloudy days, just seems more like Winter up there even if there isnt snow on the ground at any given time.

Dude thlat must have been awesome. I bet you had snow on the ground virtually all winter!

[DaculaWeather]

Weak to neutral is what I'd like to see, and it could still head back toward weak. It will put is in the general ballpark I think. 

[Hvward]

Here are some stats I did for Asheville back in August and posted in the mountain thread.  When compared with the PDO and its positive shift, I see a decent comparison between this years setup and 77'-78' (based off potential for weak El Nino & a recent switch from cold to warm PDO).  Asheville did well that year with 21.8" of snowfall.

 

 

 

 

A few stats I put together for my page regarding yearly snowfall amounts at KAVL during weak el ninos, moderate el ninos, & neutral years.  I was kind of surprised to find that we average more snowfall at the airport on moderate el nino years compared to the others I investigated.

 

Weak El Nino Years (KAVL Snowfall)  

 

52'-53'     15.7"

 

53'-54'      9.7"

 

58'-59'      4.1"

 

69'-70'     17.3"

 

76'-77'     13.0"

 

77'-78'     21.8"

 

04'-05'      6.6"

 

06'-07'      4.3"

 

Average: 11.5"

 

 

Moderate El Nino Years (KAVL Snowfall)

51'-52'      5.7"

 

63'-64'     25.8"

 

68'-69'     48.2"

 

86'-87'     29.5"

 

91'-92'      1.5"

 

94'-95'      3.5"

 

02'-03'     17.9"

 

09'-10'     39.2"

 

Average  21.4"

 

 

Neutral Years (KAVL Snowfall)

 

59'-60'     40.6"

 

60'-61'      4.0"

 

61'-62'     22.8"

 

62'-63'      9.0"

 

66'-67'      7.8"

 

67'-68'     15.2"

 

78'-79'     23.0"

 

79'-80'     13.8"

 

80'-81'     14.6"

 

81'-82'     21.8"

 

85'-86'      5.0"

 

89'-90'      3.0"

 

90'-91'      3.5"

 

92'-93'     21.2"

 

93'-94'     11.0"

 

96'-97'      8.3"

 

01'-02'      1.6"

 

03'-04'     14.3"

 

12'-13'        .5"

 

13'-14'     10.0"+ (data was undetermined from NWS)

 

Average  12.5"

 

 

Though we don't seem to do as well on weak el nino years, I believe that we develop a nice -nao that will allow Asheville and wnc to have an above average year in snowfall, regardless of what the ENSO does.  Here is my map outlook:

 

 

[Cold Rain]

Weak to neutral is what I'd like to see, and it could still head back toward weak. It will put is in the general ballpark I think. 

 

Gotcha, ok.  I was thinking weak, west-based was the best for us.  But who knows really.  There are so many conflicting arguments and stats and opinions....

[DaculaWeather]

Gotcha, ok.  I was thinking weak, west-based was the best for us.  But who knows really.  There are so many conflicting arguments and stats and opinions....

I would rather see us where we're at, especially with some signs showing the ENSO potentially heading toward weak toward the end of the year. At least we're not one extreme or the other.

[Cold Rain]

I would rather see us where we're at, especially with some signs showing the ENSO potentially heading toward weak toward the end of the year. At least we're not one extreme or the other.

 

Yeah, I'm at least glad we're not in another Nina.

 

By the way, the OPI is looking good!  http://app.til.it/opi/

 

Also, the AO is nearly -4.  It looks like it should get there in the next day or so and then rise toward neutral.  There is some spread after that, but it generally looks negative.  Anyway, -4 is a robust number.

 

The NAO is around -2.  It looks to rise but remain generally negative.

 

The Euro wants to bring back the Aleutian Low at 240.  The ridging in that area that is upcoming appears that it will not be enough to erase the negative anomaly that has built there so far.  It appears transient.  That'll be good news, assuming it verifies.

[GaWx]

Gotcha, ok. I was thinking weak, west-based was the best for us. But who knows really. There are so many conflicting arguments and stats and opinions....

One source of confusion is that what's "best" for the coldest temperatures is not the same as what's best for the heaviest wintry precip. (historic stat based). I see a lot of this. Also, wintry precip. tends to vary more from place to place within the SE than is the case for temperature anomalies. Another source of confusion is that ZR doesn't show up as SN/IP accumulations. One has to do further research to get ZR in many cases, especially when going back further in time. Another source of confusion is how different people classify ENSO for each winter. Some go by the peak even if it isn't right at DJF. Others go strictly by DJF. Also, what one calls weak may be moderate to someone else and vice versa depending on where they set the boundary. Same for moderate vs. strong ENSO. Also, neutral vs. weak ENSO can cause confusion. Furthermore, some go by MEI rather than ONI for ENSO. There never will be complete agreement.

[DaculaWeather]

One source of confusion is that what's "best" for the coldest temperatures is not the same as what's best for the heaviest wintry precip. (historic stat based). I see a lot of this. Also, wintry precip. tends to vary more from place to place within the SE than is the case for temperature anomalies. Another source of confusion is that ZR doesn't show up as SN/IP accumulations. One has to do further research to get ZR in many cases, especially when going back further in time. Another source of confusion is how different people classify ENSO for each winter.

Just lots of confusion in general! 

As long as we're in the ball game (which we are right now), I'm good. The details will change as we get closer but the trends are currently leaning in our favor. 

[Cold Rain]

One source of confusion is that what's "best" for the coldest temperatures is not the same as what's best for the heaviest wintry precip. (historic stat based). I see a lot of this. Also, wintry precip. tends to vary more from place to place within the SE than is the case for temperature anomalies. Another source of confusion is that ZR doesn't show up as SN/IP accumulations. One has to do further research to get ZR in many cases, especially when going back further in time. Another source of confusion is how different people classify ENSO for each winter. Some go by the peak even if it isn't right at DJF. Others go strictly by DJF. Also, what one calls weak may be moderate to someone else and vice versa depending on where they set the boundary. Same for moderate vs. strong ENSO. Also, neutral vs. weak ENSO can cause confusion. Furthermore, some go by MEI rather than ONI for ENSO. There never will be complete agreement.

 

Thanks...yeah, I see want you mean.  There are so many nuances in looking at this, it makes it difficult to come to a consensus.  Generally speaking, regarding ENSO, I'm going to maintain that a weak, west-based NINO is the best for the SE in terms of getting colder temps and above average precip to overlap.  Of course, that is unwisely disregarding all other factors like PDO, dominate AO/NAO state, solar, etc.

[GaWx]

Just lots of confusion in general!

As long as we're in the ball game (which we are right now), I'm good. The details will change as we get closer but the trends are currently leaning in our favor.

Still another source of confusion is that different regions of the country tend to be affected quite differently by the same index level of the various indices. Another source: many people go back only to 1950 or thereabouts since the official ONI chart starts then. Others like myself like to go back further to get more data in the sample since they have other ways to get a good feel for ENSO for pre-1950. Fwiw, my own way to look at it for Atlanta and much of the SE US is this:

-for the best shot at a solidly cold winter based on stats (anomalies) going back to the late 1800's is for anywhere from a high end neutral positive to borderline weak Niño (like 1884-5 and 1935-6) through weak Niño and to low end moderate Niño in combo with a DJF averaged +PDO and -NAO (-AO often accompanies -NAO). So these coldest are centered on weak Niño/+PDO/-NAO.

-for the best shot at heaviest SN/IP, similar to above except strong Niño has been best on average as seven strong Niño's have been nice producers at KATL such as 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1991-2, and 2009-10 though some strong were complete duds. The vast majority of this came from just one major storm each winter. Keep in mind, however, these seven strong Nino's averaged near normal temperaturewise (-0.4) as opposed to the colder weaker Niño's on average. So, coldest and heaviest SN/IP haven't necessarily coincided on average. This has caused confusion at times. Nice ATL producers of high end weak through moderate Nino's: 1911-12, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1951-2, 1963-4, and 1986-7. For high end neutral positive through weak, these were nice producers in Atlanta: 1884-5, 1913-4, 1923-4, and 1935-6. 1884-5, 1935-6, and 1939-40 were three of the greatest Atlanta winters when looking at a combo of cold, very heavy SN/IP, and major ZR.

Overall for heaviest average SN/IP at Atlanta, it is safe to say that Nino's in general are better than neutral and Nina is worst. Regardless, SN/IP is so hit and miss in Atlanta since often one nice storm makes for a big winter!

- For the best shot at major ZR, neutral negative has been the clear winner, including 2013-14. It may very well be that the best overall CAD has occurred during neutral negative but I really don't know. Overall, moderate to strong ENSO has cut major ZR chances way down vs. neutral or weak ENSO. So, although seven strong Niño's have produced some really nice snow, they have a hard time producing major ZR (only 1972-3). However, the high end neutral positive through low end moderate range of Nino's have produced some really nice ZR's. 1885-6 had a moderate ZR. 1904-5 had three significant ZR's in February, alone, including two majors! 1911-12, 1939-40, and 2004-5 each had one major ZR. 1935-6 had two major ZR's!

**edited several times**

[griteater]

Another source of confusion is how different people classify ENSO for each winter. Some go by the peak even if it isn't right at DJF. Others go strictly by DJF. Also, what one calls weak may be moderate to someone else and vice versa depending on where they set the boundary. Same for moderate vs. strong ENSO. Also, neutral vs. weak ENSO can cause confusion. Furthermore, some go by MEI rather than ONI for ENSO. There never will be complete agreement.

 

Still another source of confusion is that different regions of the country tend to be affected quite differently by the same index level of the various indices. Another source: many people go back only to 1950 or thereabouts since the official ONI chart starts then. Others like myself like to go back further to get more data in the sample since they have other ways to get a good feel for ENSO for pre-1950. 

 

Good posts GA.  No doubt, we don't have a climate indices reference manual that all follow...and that probably makes it more interesting.  I try to just read and learn from others, soak it all in, and then roll with my own methods.  Another one is determiniing west based vs. east based ENSO

[griteater]

-for the best shot at heaviest SN/IP, similar to above except strong Niño has been best on average as seven strong Niño's have been nice producers at KATL such as 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1991-2, and 2009-10 though some strong were complete duds. The vast majority of this came from just one major storm each winter. Keep in mind, however, these seven strong Nino's averaged near normal temperaturewise (-0.4) as opposed to the colder weaker Niño's on average. So, coldest and heaviest SN/IP haven't necessarily coincided on average. This has caused confusion at times. Nice ATL producers of high end weak through moderate Nino's: 1911-12, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1951-2, 1963-4, and 1986-7. For high end neutral positive through weak, these were nice producers in Atlanta: 1884-5, 1913-4, 1923-4, and 1935-6. 1884-5 and 1935-6 were two of the greatest Atlanta winters when looking at a combo of cold, very heavy SN/IP, and major ZR.

Overall for heaviest average SN/IP at Atlanta, it is safe to say that Nino's in general are better than neutral and Nina is worst. Regardless, SN/IP is so hit and miss in Atlanta since often one nice storm makes for a big winter!

- For the best shot at major ZR, neutral negative. Overall, moderate to strong ENSO has cut major ZR chances way down vs. neutral or weak ENSO. So, although strong Niño's have produced some really nice snow, they have a very hard time producing major ZR!

 

From what I've looked at with subtropical jet composites, the stronger the Nino, the stronger and farther south the subtropical jet.  The farther south subtropical jet gives you the farther south tracking 500mb waves, which would yield colder temperatures aloft (the Mar 1983 storm is a great example of this).  So it makes sense that the stronger Ninos are comparatively better for snow farther south, assuming it can be timed with cold air.  All of this is speaking in general, not absolutes of course.

[DaculaWeather]

From what I've looked at with subtropical jet composites, the stronger the Nino, the stronger and farther south the subtropical jet.  The farther south subtropical jet gives you the farther south tracking 500mb waves, which would yield colder temperatures aloft (the Mar 1983 storm is a great example of this).  So it makes sense that the stronger Ninos are comparatively better for snow farther south, assuming it can be timed with cold air.  All of this is speaking in general, not absolutes of course.

Sounds good and I agree. The strength helps to determine the location of the relative tracks of the systems rounding the base of the cold air. Too strong, too far south, too weak, too far north, just right... ahhhhh...... :-)

[GaWx]

Thanks...yeah, I see want you mean.  There are so many nuances in looking at this, it makes it difficult to come to a consensus.  Generally speaking, regarding ENSO, I'm going to maintain that a weak, west-based NINO is the best for the SE in terms of getting colder temps and above average precip to overlap.  Of course, that is unwisely disregarding all other factors like PDO, dominate AO/NAO state, solar, etc.

 

 CR,

 I largely agree. Conistently, with the posts I've just made: if one were to consider the combo of the average of heaviest SN/IP, heaviest ZR, and coldest temperatures (i.e., ALL three combined..not just snow!!) for much of the interior SE US, I'd want weak Nino/+PDO/-NAO (along with -AO). I'd probably lean toward west based over east based for heavier precip. though the data for that is spottier and people are going to have varying  definitions of west based vs. east based. By the way, the coldest winter on record for Atlanta (back to 1879-80) and other parts of the SE US was 1976-7, which was an EAST based weak Nino with +PDO and -NAO averaged over DJF. However, at Atlanta, it had below average SN/IP and no major ZR. Then again, Savannah had two sticking snows, one of only about four winters of which I'm aware having two sticking snows since 1799-1800 though I may very well be unaware of a couple of others in the 1800's to early 1900's. Atlanta's 2nd coldest winter on record was a WEST based weak Nino with +PDO/-NAO, 1977-8, though this also was light on wintry precip.

 

 For Atlanta for SN/IP, alone, (i.e., ignoring cold as well as major ZR), I'd pretty much just want a Nino with +PDO and -NAO though I'd lean toward moderate to strong Nino for the best shot at heavy (usually from just one major). But remember that strong Nino's are not as cold as weaker ones on average and have much lower chances for major ZR. Also, three winters (1884-5, 1935-6, and 1939-40) centered on weak Nino were the tops at Atlanta when looking at combos of cold, heavy SN/IP, AND major ZR. I'd also include 1917-18 in this great overall winter group (quite cold, way above average SN/IP, and major ZR) though it was actually neutral negative. 1884-5 and 1935-6 were also very wet.

 

**Edited several times**

[Coach B]

By the way, the coldest winter on record for Atlanta (back to 1879-80) and other parts of the SE US was 1976-7, which was an EAST based weak Nino with +PDO and -NAO averaged over DJF. However, at Atlanta, it had below average SN/IP and no major ZR. Then again, Savannah had two sticking snows, one of only about four winters of which I'm aware having two sticking snows since 1799-1800 though I may very well be unaware of a couple of others in the 1800's to early 1900's. Atlanta's 2nd coldest winter on record was a WEST based weak Nino with +PDO/-NAO, 1977-8, though this also was light on wintry precip.

Interesting! Just to point out the variability that one or two systems can have on southeastern snow totals-both 1976-7 and 1977-8 were 20"+ snowfall years in Nashville.

[Cold Rain]

Good info, as always, Larry.  All it takes is one fluke storm on any given year to meet or exceed climo wrt wintry precip.  So it makes good sense to me to want a pattern that overlaps the best chance for cold with the best chance for above normal precip (not necessarily a historical top 10 for snow).

 

It always comes down to timing and threading the needle in the SE, neither of which has any place in a very long term discussion thread.  What we hope for is a repeating pattern, where the eye of the needle is bigger.  Bob Chill wrote something similar in the mid-Atlantic thread.  Give me a pattern that keeps us colder than normal with an active STJ, and I'll be a happy camper.  Ramp up the STJ too much, and we're warm.  No STJ, then we're dry.  Anyway, thanks for the in-depth analysis!

[GaWx]

Good info, as always, Larry.  All it takes is one fluke storm on any given year to meet or exceed climo wrt wintry precip.  So it makes good sense to me to want a pattern that overlaps the best chance for cold with the best chance for above normal precip (not necessarily a historical top 10 for snow).

 

It always comes down to timing and threading the needle in the SE, neither of which has any place in a very long term discussion thread.  What we hope for is a repeating pattern, where the eye of the needle is bigger.  Bob Chill wrote something similar in the mid-Atlantic thread.  Give me a pattern that keeps us colder than normal with an active STJ, and I'll be a happy camper.  Ramp up the STJ too much, and we're warm.  No STJ, then we're dry.  Anyway, thanks for the in-depth analysis!

 

CR,

 Thanks. Related to all of this and based on a correlation based on historical stats, I'm still personally hoping for a warm October, weak El Nino (of course, along with +PDO and -NAO in DJF), and cold winter combo for what I feel would give Atlanta and nearby areas (including much of the main CAD region of N GA/NW SC, and W NC) a better shot at above normal SN/IP and/or ZR than if Oct. were to end up colder than normal and even better than if Oct. were to end up near normal . Those chances have increased further since yesterday due to warmer forecasts of ~3.5 F above normal for the first half of Oct at KATL. So, now KATL would only need a hair above normal for the last half of October to achieve my definition of warm, 2 F above normal. The chance for a cold October has now gotten very low (duh).

 

Aside: By the way, the fact that we're following a period of -ENSO probably helps more than it hurts imo if we can get the Nino.

 

Edit: If I were to look at what I feel are the four greatest ATL winters in terms of a combo of cold, well above SN/IP, AND at least one major ZR, I come up with these four: 1884-5, 1917-8, 1935-6, and 1939-40. I'd pick any one of these to repeat if I could. 1884-5, 1935-6, and 1939-40 were all in/near weak Nino range while 1917 was neutral negative. Looking at the three that were in or near weak Nino, the 1884 and 1939 Octobers were warm. The 1935 October wasn't wam, but even it was about 1 F above normal fwiw.

 I also have to give 1978-9, which was neutral-negative ENSOwise, an honorable mention. I'm not mentioning great winters like 1894-5 and 1898-9 only because they lacked major ZR.

 Despite the darn good winters of 2009-10, 2010-1, and 2013-4 in ATL, none makes my very tough to reach top tier. So, I can say ATL is due for a top tier even if the 36 year ago 1978-9 were counted.