2014-15 winter outlook

[burgertime]

The science is still debatable.  Both sides must be willing to do it.  I think it's very possible that an overestimation has been made regarding CO2 and climate sensitivity.  The next decade or so should speak volumes either way.

 

The science is "debatable". See 3% of scientist world wide debate it. That should put an end to the debate once and for all. 97% of the debate comes from non scientists. 

[dsaur]

I am currently debating with myself over the apparent correlation between snow predicted in Ga from Brazil, and the Brazilian Wax, and I believe it means no snow on the dome, thus none for us?   I am still recovering, albeit slowly, from the recent discovery of Moon Possums, and how they may enter into this debate.  As always I will rely on CR to lead the way on this, as he still is the only person to predict snow on Xmas in Atlanta, and have it happen.... actually sticking like a Brazilian wax....and, frankly, I'm a bit confused by it all.

  If Iceland blows it's top again, we may actually be looking at a much colder winter, if the prevailing winds were in our favor, so maybe the Brazilians know something...since ash can fall and accumulate like grey snow even if it is above 32... and the sun angle doesn't matter.  And I believe climo will back me on this!   T

[GaWx]

The science is "debatable". See 3% of scientist world wide debate it. That should put an end to the debate once and for all. 97% of the debate comes from non scientists. 

 

There's not much debate about whether or not CO2 has nontrivial direct warming effects. However, there's still plenty of debate/wide model projections ranges about how warm it will eventually get due to questions about what % of 20th century waming was actually due to CO2, itself, vs natural cycles involving things like the oceans and the sun. Also, uncertainties abound regarding positive or negative feedbacks, which are not easily predictable. Also, note that the model consensus has verified too warm over much of the last decade or so. So, I like to take a middle of the road approach (skeptic) between the flatout deniers and the alarmists. The truth is that nobody really knows what will happen, of course.

[DaculaWeather]

The debate is the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 and it's the crux of the AGW theory. 

It is very obvious that man knows little about natural variability, much less long term climate trends. It's also obvious that man cannot currently separate natural variability from anything man has contributed to the atmosphere as evidenced by the fact that EVERY SINGLE alarmist prediction over the last 20 years has failed to materialize, not to mention the fact that we haven't warmed for more than 18 years now. 

 

A new paper by Judith Curry (as well as another 5-10 new studies) is now putting the sensitivity of the climate to CO2 almost down in the noise range. 

 

http://judithcurry.com/2014/09/24/lewis-and-curry-climate-sensitivity-uncertainty/#more-16878

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/09/modern-science-refutes-global-warming-alarmism.php#.VDAvNQQe8us.twitter

[valkhorn]

that we haven't warmed for more than 18 years now.

That's not true and you know it.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/no-warming-in-16-years.htm

 

Also your source, Judith Curry, is pretty questionable:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Judith_Curry.htm

 

Here is a thorough refutation:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/08/ipcc-attribution-statements-redux-a-response-to-judith-curry/comment-page-4/

 

When I googled Judith Curry I got a lot of right wing/biased sources where her stuff was copied and pasted. That's not a very good sign.

 

It seems to me you're looking at outliers rather than actually looking at the consensus.

[DaculaWeather]

Just because you deny it, doesn't mean it hasn't happened.

 

 

 

Curry is questionable? You do know her credentials don't you? You must think Mann is credible?

 

 

What consensus? You mean the 97% number that's been proven incorrect over and over?

 

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/spectacularly-poor-climate-science-at-nasa/

[Cold Rain]

Winter is gonna be rockin'!

[calculus1]

Winter is gonna be rockin'!

 

Nice attempt at steering the conversation, CR.

 

I'm also quite optimistic about our potential for this winter.  I'm liking many things that I've read.  Of course, as jburns has pointed out, everyone's an optimist in October.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

This global warming stuff is freezing me to death this morning on October 5th

[valkhorn]

Steven Goddard

 

By the way, Goddard is also a Birther, and he consistently uses many fallacies including the infamous 'texas sharpshooter' fallacy. He is about an unreliable source as you can get.

 

You're also cherrypicking data with the graph. Go back just a year, things are different.

 

Now, can you please take this to the right forum? It doesn't belong here.

[DaculaWeather]

So you don't find 18 years statistically significant? I didn't say things haven't warmed, I said it hasn't warmed in 18 years. Learn to read.

I didn't bring any of this up... as a matter of fact, YOU brought it back up. Look in a mirror.

[valkhorn]

So you don't find 18 years statistically significant? I didn't say things haven't warmed, I said it hasn't warmed in 18 years. Learn to read.

I didn't bring any of this up... as a matter of fact, YOU brought it back up. Look in a mirror.

 

I'm saying you're in the wrong forum. If you want to be educated on this topic (and you seem to not understand you're cherry picking data because you cherry picked the starting point of 1998) - GO TO THE RIGHT FORUM. This isn't the place to do it. YOU made the erroneous claim. I showed you were wrong. Yet you keep trotting it out. Go to the clmate change forum and discuss it there, please.

 

Post what you posted in the climate change forum, and then get feedback there. This is not the place.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I'm saying you're in the wrong forum. If you want to be educated on this topic (and you seem to not understand you're cherry picking data because you cherry picked the starting point of 1998) - GO TO THE RIGHT FORUM. This isn't the place to do it. YOU made the erroneous claim. I showed you were wrong. Yet you keep trotting it out. Go to the clmate change forum and discuss it there, please.

 

Post what you posted in the climate change forum, and then get feedback there. This is not the place.

 

Be careful though if you go over there, Al Gore is the moderator on that forum....

[valkhorn]

Be careful though if you go over there, Al Gore is the moderator on that forum...

 

I never quite understood the tired Al Gore jokes. It's really not funny once the horse has been beaten to death so much that nothing is left but residue from a glue factory.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I never quite understood the tired Al Gore jokes. It's really not funny once the horse has been beaten to death so much that nothing is left but residue from a glue factory.

 

I never ever get tired of seeing Al Gore being the butt-end of every global warming joke. However this thread is about our upcoming winter, which is off to a pretty good start. There's no denying that.

[DaculaWeather]

Mt Holly has a different take on warm Octobers for their following winters. 

 

[GaWx]

Mt Holly has a different take on warm Octobers for their following winters. 

 

mt_holly.png

Steve,

Thanks for posting this as it will help with the warm Oct./winter correlation discussions that I stated here for ATL.

 Here is my response and clarification:

1) The correlation I've been mentioning is not that a warm October at ATL increases the chance for a cold winter there. Rather, to repeat what I had mentioned, I feel it increases the chance of above normal wintry precip. specifically when there is El Niño and when the winter does turn out to be cold. ALL four of the cases at ATL when there was a warm October followed by a cold winter happened to be in weak to moderate Niño territory and all four of these cold winters turned out to have well above normal wintry precip.: 1884-5, 1911-12, 1939-40, and 1963-4. These four cold Niño winters following warm Oct.'s averaged a whopping 350% of the longterm based normal SN/IP (7") and 75% of them had a MAJOR ZR vs the longterm average of only 20%. OTOH, the 5 cold Niño winters that followed near normal Octobers had near normal wintry precip. at ATL when averaged and the five cold Niño winters that followed cold Octobers averaged below normal (50%) wintry precip. at ATL.

2) Actually though, the warm Niño ATL Octobers (10 of the 40 Nino's) still did average cool in DJF (-1.3) thanks to cool overall Niño climo in the SE US. I doubt this is the case up in the NE US. Of these 10, four were quite cold (3-6 below normal) and seven (86%) were near the -1 to -6 range. Only three of the ten warm Niño Oct.'s averaged above normal temperaturewise in DJF: 1918-9 (+1), 1951-2 (+4), and 2004-5 (+2). A very impressive six of these seven cool to very cold winters had 190%+ of normal SN/IP at ATL! Compare this 86% figure to only 34% of all other cold winters having had 190%+ of normal wintry precip.

3) Without doing exact calculations, I can see that non-Niño warm Octobers very likely did average warmer than normal in DJF at ATL. However, I'm thinking we won't be in the non-Niño category this fall/winter.

4) Don't forget Mt. Holly is referring to their area rather than the SE US though their general idea is likely similar for the SE US if you don't isolate Nino's from non-Nino's.

[DaculaWeather]

No, I understood you! :-) I remember you clarifying your statements in one of those earlier post.

 

I just thought it was interesting that they just posted this today, and how it tied back in to your data. And yes, they are talking about their area up north. 

 

I think that we sometimes we get so caught up in our own little weather world, we forget how others are sometimes affected differently (or the same) by the same setup. 

 

[GaWx]

No, I understood you! :-) I remember you clarifying your statements in one of those earlier post.

 

I just thought it was interesting that they just posted this today, and how it tied back in to your data. And yes, they are talking about their area up north. 

 

I think that we sometimes we get so caught up in our own little weather world, we forget how others are sometimes affected differently (or the same) by the same setup. 

 

 

 No problem!

[jburns]

Lets get the discussion back to the upcoming winter.

[Cold Rain]

Lets get the discussion back to the upcoming winter.

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 18"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

[calculus1]

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 18"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

 

I'm stunned.  Alarmed.  Hurt, even.  That you did not predict a value for Hickory, CR.  Are we dead to you? 

 

With an extremely early analysis of your data, I think that the Waycross and PGV values have the greatest chance of verifying.  Nicely done.

[Cold Rain]

I'm stunned. Alarmed. Hurt, even. That you did not predict a value for Hickory, CR. Are we dead to you?

With an extremely early analysis of your data, I think that the Waycross and PGV values have the greatest chance of verifying. Nicely done.

Thanks! I just used various cities as a proxy for surrounding locales. I used to live in Asheville, so I picked it. But I'm happy to take requests!

Hickory: 19"

[mackerel_sky]

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 18"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

I like the way you talk!

[GaWx]

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 18"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

 

 Good to see, CR. The 8" at ATL (400% of climo) would be tied for the 9th most since the late 1800's and would be the heaviest since 1982-3 (airport). So, you're going out on a major limb.

[calculus1]

Thanks! I just used various cities as a proxy for surrounding locales. I used to live in Asheville, so I picked it. But I'm happy to take requests!

Hickory: 19"

 

Whoa, there!  This is almost worse, CR.  In what universe can Asheville be used as a proxy for Hickory?  The cities are quite different.  How are they alike?  Not in elevation, not in beauty of surroundings, not in available jobs, not in general political persuasion, not in average educational attainment, not in availability of vegan cuisine, and definitely not in projected snow totals. 

 

(Note that I'm making value judgments concerning which city is "better" in each of these categories, I'm just pointing out our vast differences.)

[Cold Rain]

Whoa, there! This is almost worse, CR. In what universe can Asheville be used as a proxy for Hickory? The cities are quite different. How are they alike? Not in elevation, not in beauty of surroundings, not in available jobs, not in general political persuasion, not in average educational attainment, not in availability of vegan cuisine, and definitely not in projected snow totals.

(Note that I'm making no value judgments concerning which city is "better" in each of these categories, I'm just pointing out our vast differences.)

They're both in western NC though.

[WxJordan]

I started working on my winter weather forecast this weekend, and I am planning to release the forecast on Monday October 27th.

 

I am still conducting my research, but it appears with a weak El Nino, the PDO will help to determine what will happen in the southeast. Right now, I have found five years where there was a trend towards a weak El Nino, and two of the five years had warmer than average temperatures and three of the five years had colder than average temperatures. In the warm years, the PDO was strongly negative. In the cold years, the PDO was positive going neutral, slightly negative and neutral, or positive. So, if the PDO was strongly negative, the temperatures were warmer in the southeast. If the PDO was not strongly negative, the temperatures were cooler than average.

 

Comparing the three analog years where the temperature was below average in the winter, two of the three years had temperatures in the fall above average, and the other was neutral in the southeast.

 

In regards to October, all three years were average to slightly below average in regards to temperature. One common theme was an extremely warm Pacific coast.

 

So, the CFSV2 indicates a positive PDO is looking likely with a weak El Nino. With everything else remaining equal (which it never does happen like this), this would lead to a cold winter in the southeast. I am still conducting my research and will keep you updated with any information that I find along the way.

 

(I can not tell you what my analog years are at the moment as it would affect the release of my winter weather forecast, so please respect the fact I can not give you the analog years right now. So, just take a faith pill that the information I am giving you is accurate).

 

My goals next are to determine how the NAO, AO, and PNA indices ranged during these years. I will also be watching the Siberian Snowfall over the upcoming month to see how quickly the snow grows. I am excited about this process and developing my second winter weather forecast, and my first official winter forecast as a meteorologist!

[superjames1992]

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 180"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

 

FYP.  You left off a 0 for GSO.

[wxjunkie]

Here are my predictions for a few select cities (and/or general areas):

Atlanta: 8"

Waycross: 2"

GSP: 12"

Columbia: 9"

Asheville: 20"

Greensboro: 18"

Raleigh: 16"

Wilmington: 5"

PGV: 246"

Idk man, those numbers look kinda sad...LOL

 

I think my 90" in 09-10 may have changed my idea of a good Winter...LOLLL