packbacker Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 Joe D from WB had a good writeup on the upcoming winter. Based on the below criteria he came up with the below analogs...RDU avg'd about 10" of snow over these 7 winters. 5 really good winters and 2 just below avg. Moderate Solar, Easterly QBO, warm pool in GOA, central based weak nino 1966, 1969, 1977, 1987, 1994, 2004, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 From Joe Bastardi... "Brazilian Meteogram in Atlanta for winter. X represents normal high.. many more colder than warmer days " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 From Joe Bastardi... "Brazilian Meteogram in Atlanta for winter. X represents normal high.. many more colder than warmer days " December looks brutal, if the Brazilians know anything about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 From Joe Bastardi... "Brazilian Meteogram in Atlanta for winter. X represents normal high.. many more colder than warmer days " bast.jpg January screams TORCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 0z Euro and GFS 8-10 day mean: Aleutian low still looks good. The GEFS look similar, of course. It looks to break down shortly after this, for a time. In about 5 days or so, the GFS and Euro look to establish SW flow across the SE, so we should warm back up after the upcoming cool-down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Also, not sure why the weekly CFS maps haven't updated since Sept. 30, but as of then, weeks 3 & 4 show above normal across the SE. Also, the latest ensemble of the last 10 day mean shows average temps for the DJF period. Earlier, it was showing above average temps. Also, the same run shows normal to above normal precip for the same period. Earlier, it was showing below average precip. Still a long ways to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 QBO numbers for 2014, starting with Jan and ending with September. 13.13 12.68 11.71 7.14 -2.81 -13.98 -19.28 -21.65 -23.24 Changed in May, rapidly decreased, and slowed its descent. Just eyeballing the numbers going back several years, it seems to remain in one phase or the other for 11-15 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 QBO is money this winter...least of our worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 QBO is money this winter...least of our worries After we get this Nino going, it sounds like we need the sun to shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 After we get this Nino going, it sounds like we need the sun to shut up. The sun is currently at the peak of it's cycle(11 year cycle), but It looks like it's now on the down-turn. Not sure when we would see any benefits. This current cycle as a whole as been below normal, even with the recent sun spot / flair activity. http://www.spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/sunspots-2014-case-for-a-dalton-minimum-24959/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/sunspots-2014-case-for-a-dalton-minimum-24959/ Very well could happen. It will be interesting to see how this minimum will act. The last one had a lot more spotless days than normal and this maximum was below normal. Something else that could happen is a magnetic flip. I have no idea what this would do but reading the below article(rebuttal) is really scary: http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/earths-impending-magnetic-flip-scientific-american/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 http://www.commdiginews.com/news-2/sunspots-2014-case-for-a-dalton-minimum-24959/ This line is interesting! "Cycle 24 shares similar characteristics to both the Dalton and the weak cycles leading into the modern era. Perhaps the sun is returning to conditions similar to the late-1800s." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 This line is interesting! "Cycle 24 shares similar characteristics to both the Dalton and the weak cycles leading into the modern era. Perhaps the sun is returning to conditions similar to the late-1800s." I find the whole sun theory very compelling. Add to that an AMO that appears to be cooling, and you may have a mixture that cools us down considerably over the next ten years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I find the whole sun theory very compelling. Add to that an AMO that appears to be cooling, and you may have a mixture that cools us down considerably over the next ten years or so. Agree! Definitely makes sense that low solar equals lower temps. That stat Larry showed the other day was quite interesting on the winter of 1884-85. Maybe that's not too far fetched with the lower solar activity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I find the whole sun theory very compelling. Add to that an AMO that appears to be cooling, and you may have a mixture that cools us down considerably over the next ten years or so. It's going to have to fight off record high levels of CO2 that creates higher global temperatures. August was the hottest August globally on record on a few datasets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Thanks for the info, guys! Very interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 It's going to have to fight off record high levels of CO2 that creates higher global temperatures. August was the hottest August globally on record on a few datasets. If you believe NOAA... and also believe that CO2 is the control knob. The evidence is disagreeing with that thought. CO2 has risen but the temps haven't. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/its-official-no-global-warming-for-18-years-1-month/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/the-collection-of-evidence-for-a-lower-climate-sensitivity-continues-to-grow-now-up-to-14-papers-lower-than-ipcc/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/ http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/218795-benefits-of-carbon-use-far-outweigh-its-costs And most of all... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/15/nasa-giss-tweaks-the-short-term-global-temperature-trend-upwards/ I could go on and on. CO2 saturates very quickly and it's greenhouse properties go downhill rapidly when that happens, meaning it has an initial effect that quickly drops to negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 If you believe NOAA... and also believe that CO2 is the control knob. The evidence is disagreeing with that thought. CO2 has risen but the temps haven't. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/02/its-official-no-global-warming-for-18-years-1-month/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/the-collection-of-evidence-for-a-lower-climate-sensitivity-continues-to-grow-now-up-to-14-papers-lower-than-ipcc/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/25/new-research-finds-earth-even-less-sensitive-to-co2-than-previously-thought/ http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/energy-environment/218795-benefits-of-carbon-use-far-outweigh-its-costs And most of all... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/15/nasa-giss-tweaks-the-short-term-global-temperature-trend-upwards/ I could go on and on. CO2 saturates very quickly and it's greenhouse properties go downhill rapidly when that happens, meaning it has an initial effect that quickly drops to negligible. You mention NOAA but show no links about NOAA. The sites you are linking are far from unbiased btw, people can do their own research about Anthony Watts the founder of that site. The radiative forcing of CO2 isn't debatable. It's a greenhouse gas and causes warming. It's also a fact CO2 levels are the highest on record. Another fact is we continue to set records for OHC and monthly global temperature records. The trend has slowed over the last 15 years but we are still warming. This is probably better suited for the CC forum. I didn't think someone would actually question the science behind CO2 radiative forcing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 After we get this Nino going, it sounds like we need the sun to shut up. Latest PDF corrected version of the CFS2 represents well my thinking on ENSO. Just a close call between neutral and Nino. Tough to forecast though. PDF corrected version of CFS has essentially kept the same ENSO forecast since late August, just a tighter cluster now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 You mention NOAA but show no links about NOAA. The sites you are linking are far from unbiased btw, people can do their own research about Anthony Watts the founder of that site. The radiative forcing of CO2 isn't debatable. It's a greenhouse gas and causes warming. It's also a fact CO2 levels are the highest on record. Another fact is we continue to set records for OHC and monthly global temperature records. The trend has slowed over the last 15 years but we are still warming. This is probably better suited for the CC forum. I didn't think someone would actually question the science behind CO2 radiative forcing..... All of those articles aren't Anthony's, they are posted on his site. Many people have discovered data manipulation from NOAA, go do your research. Everyone has some bias, mine is doubting the significance of CO2 on it;s ability to increase the heat very much at all. After reading and seeing the data manipulation, I have very little faith in NOAA at this point. No one denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but based on the studies I've read, it's effects have been way over estimated. Why has CO2 been increasing but temps haven't? Isn't that what all the climate models said would happen? Why does CO2 lag temperature change? In your opinion, what's a healthy level of CO2? Do you still believe in the climate models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Oh... sorry, forgot the NOAA links... http://www.principia-scientific.org/breaking-new-climate-data-rigging-scandal-rocks-us-government.html http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/23/Global-warming-Fabricated-by-NASA-and-NOAA http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/tracking-us-temperature-fraud/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I think we should just consult Al Gore.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 All of those articles aren't Anthony's, they are posted on his site. Many people have discovered data manipulation from NOAA, go do your research. Everyone has some bias, mine is doubting the significance of CO2 on it;s ability to increase the heat very much at all. After reading and seeing the data manipulation, I have very little faith in NOAA at this point. No one denies that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, but based on the studies I've read, it's effects have been way over estimated. Why has CO2 been increasing but temps haven't? Isn't that what all the climate models said would happen? Why does CO2 lag temperature change? In your opinion, what's a healthy level of CO2? Do you still believe in the climate models? I don't know what a healthy level of CO2 is. FWIW I'm not a believer in catastrophic Global warming. I do believe that the doubling of CO2 has an exact amount of heating you can come up with. It's science in my opinion and not debatable as the scientific community imo has weighed in. I think there is a lot we don't know about natural variability and it can at times mask and even overwhelm the CO2 signature on temps. That said we are setting records. Yes, adjustments are being made to the record in the past but that's both up and down and from what I've read there are reasons for it. It isn't adjustments being made for the sake of adjusting. I for one trust NOAA wouldn't make changes to the record without a good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 Oh... sorry, forgot the NOAA links... http://www.principia-scientific.org/breaking-new-climate-data-rigging-scandal-rocks-us-government.html http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/06/23/Global-warming-Fabricated-by-NASA-and-NOAA http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/tracking-us-temperature-fraud/ Wow, man... Linking Brietbart? NASA and NOAA are lying? Ok, that's enough for me. I'm done discussing this if you are going down this road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 January screams TORCH! We have to have our mid-winter thaw to melt away the dirty December snowpack and prepare ourselves for a fresh late January snowpack that will build into March. BTW, we have a Climate Change forum, so it would probably be best to keep that stuff in there and keep the weather discussion in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 We have to have our mid-winter thaw to melt away the dirty December snowpack and prepare ourselves for a fresh late January snowpack that will build into March. And don't forget....the skies will have to heal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted October 3, 2014 Share Posted October 3, 2014 I don't know what a healthy level of CO2 is. FWIW I'm not a believer in catastrophic Global warming. I do believe that the doubling of CO2 has an exact amount of heating you can come up with. It's science in my opinion and not debatable as the scientific community imo has weighed in. I think there is a lot we don't know about natural variability and it can at times mask and even overwhelm the CO2 signature on temps. That said we are setting records. Yes, adjustments are being made to the record in the past but that's both up and down and from what I've read there are reasons for it. It isn't adjustments being made for the sake of adjusting. I for one trust NOAA wouldn't make changes to the record without a good reason. The science is still debatable. Both sides must be willing to do it. I think it's very possible that an overestimation has been made regarding CO2 and climate sensitivity. The next decade or so should speak volumes either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Oct 3rd release of the MEI is out. Aug/Sep reading came in at +0.50, which is down from the Jul/Aug number of +0.86 MEI Numbers for this year with ranking in parenthesis: Jan/Feb: -.269 (Negative Neutral) Feb/Mar: -.017 (Positive Neutral) Mar/Apr: +.152 (Positive Neutral) Apr/May: +.932 (Moderate El Nino) May/Jun: +.878 (Weak El Nino) Jun/Jul: +.816 (Weak El Nino) Jul/Aug: +.858 (Moderate El Nino) Aug/Sep: +.500 (Positive Neutral) It looks like the ONI (based on weekly SST) and MEI are in sync at the moment, teetering on Positive Neutral / Weak El Nino Also, the NOAA PDO reading for Sept is in at +0.72. That is up from the reading around +0.15 for both Jul and Aug, so this is a noteworthy increase, likely due to cooling in the NW Pacific. One would think the Univ of Washington reading will be higher for Sept as well when it comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted October 4, 2014 Share Posted October 4, 2014 Just looked at the national intellicast radar. Turn the returns over the Great Lakes region, and it would have a classic winter look. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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