2014-15 winter outlook

[calculus1]

Auto correct, my bad lol...

 

Sure it was...   

[Shawn]

Shawn,

 I largely agree but with the caveat that the silly Euro ens clowns would show massive snowfalls even when it is predicting a major ZR (lol) despite it being the best model. For those who didn't see it, the pro met, Ellinwood, confirmed that the Euro is not even able to predict ZR or IP. It can predict only rain or snow!

 

Well, I guess we will have to load the member's temps up next to the precip and see what we can gather.  I think many of us became experts doing that last year, lol.

[griteater]

I think this Nino is going to be a close call.  I would go with 60% chance of Nino, 40% chance of Neutral...and if we get a Nino, 80% chance it's weak, and 20% it's moderate.

 

I still like this call.  Up to this point, we definitely haven't gone boldly into an El Nino. 

 

I downloaded some composite anomaly maps for the parameters below, for the Aug-Sept period.  I was looking to see how the equatorial Pacific is currently behaving in comparison to other Aug-Sept periods, prior to Nino, Nina, and Neutral winters.  I added my comments for each to give an indication of how things are currently behaving... 

 

Weekly SST (ONI): Neutral in early Aug, rising to borderline Neutral / El Nino in Sept

 

MEI Rankings: Weak to Moderate El Nino since Apr/May

 

850mb zonal winds: Neutral, but more Nina-like than Nino-like

 

OLR (Convection Pattern): Neutral

 

Surface Pressure Pattern: SOI has been Nino-like since early Aug, but the surface pressure pattern across the entire Equatorial Pacific doesn't really look like the Nino or Nina composite.

 

Velocity Potential at Upper Levels: Neutral-like pattern

[Jon]

CFSv2 coming together...JB metioned this yesterday.  Not that I hug JB I just like 500mb (in this case 700mb) patterns in the long range and if you've seen me post during winter that's mostly (if not all) what I post is from the 500mb, so I have to post about it, lol. (So credit to JB if needed, problem is JB literally looks at every model, even the chinese model, so chances are he's mentioned everything)

 

Anyway...

 

D/J/F seasonal anomalies E1 intial conditions Aug 27-5 Sept

Now E3 with initial conditions of Sept 16-25...notice the trough over the pacific and the anomaly over the WC, I believe the EC trough is slightly misplaced based on the ridge int he atlantic....notice the trough near scandinavia, when they are having fun, so are we.

These individual months (non-seasonal) are just for fun but I think show a good trend...

Dec E1

Dec E2

Jan E1

Jan E2

[Bob Chill]

Zwyts found a nice correlation between the Oct pattern in the npac and decent snow years that followed. I know there are outlier years not on this list but I'm curious as to how you guys did in the years on the composite.

 

The winters of these years all mostly had the same pattern in the npac (aleutian low and +PNA). Right now the ensembles are showing this type of pattern during the first part of Oct. The euro weeklies have an usually strong signal for the aleutian low late in the month. It's been there for several weekly runs now so I'm a little encouraged. CFSv2 seasonal DJF plot also shows low heights on the means in the same area of the Pac. 

 

We're obviously still in the muddy long lead time frame but if Oct does in fact end up resembling this composite, all the years (regardless of Enso) are worth a look for clues for a possible dominant pattern on the means for winter.  

 

 

ETA: Of course I'm always backyard first but I root for you guys quite a bit. We share a commonality with feast or famine type winters. 

[packbacker]

Zwyts found a nice correlation between the Oct pattern in the npac and decent snow years that followed. I know there are outlier years not on this list but I'm curious as to how you guys did in the years on the composite.

 

The winters of these years all mostly had the same pattern in the npac (aleutian low and +PNA). Right now the ensembles are showing this type of pattern during the first part of Oct. The euro weeklies have an usually strong signal for the aleutian low late in the month. It's been there for several weekly runs now so I'm a little encouraged. CFSv2 seasonal DJF plot also shows low heights on the means in the same area of the Pac. 

 

We're obviously still in the muddy long lead time frame but if Oct does in fact end up resembling this composite, all the years (regardless of Enso) are worth a look for clues for a possible dominant pattern on the means for winter.  

 

 

ETA: Of course I'm always backyard first but I root for you guys quite a bit. We share a commonality with feast or famine type winters. 

 

I couldn't read the last year as it was cut off, but for the rest of the years it's like RDU's greatest winters ever.  How did he come up these Octobers?  RDU averages about 7" per season and the 18 seasons from the map you posted averaged out to almost 11".   11 of the 18 winters were over 10" and the rest were right at average, only 2 of the 18 were below average (3-4").  What was the last October year?

 

 

[packbacker]

Here are the details for RDU...

[griteater]

Hey Bob, yeah, I've been following the discussion.  Oct Aleutian low appears to favor high latitude blocking for the winter.  It also, not surprisingly, seems to coincide with high snow advance years in Eurasia as well - I made a post about it here.

 

Looking at the subsequent winters in the composite for Charlotte, 17-18 were colder than the long term avg (135 yr) and 13-18 were above the long term median for snowfall.

[GaWx]

Zwyts found a nice correlation between the Oct pattern in the npac and decent snow years that followed. I know there are outlier years not on this list but I'm curious as to how you guys did in the years on the composite.

 

 

KATL: S/IP 2"+ from this list for NDJFM: 57, 59, 63, 66, 67, 78, 79, 81, 82, 86, 87, 95, 2009 (13 of 18) can't see last year

 

Total from 18: 54" or 3"/year....150% of normal

[Bob Chill]

I couldn't read the last year as it was cut off, but for the rest of the years it's like RDU's greatest winters ever.  How did he come up these Octobers?  RDU averages about 7" per season and the 18 seasons from the map you posted averaged out to almost 11".   11 of the 18 winters were over 10" and the rest were right at average, only 2 of the 18 were below average (3-4").  What was the last October year?

 

The last year was 2013. 2013 had a weaker area of low heights over and south of the Aleutians but it was there (and a massive ridge in the GOA of course).

 

They are simply the list of 20"+ winters at DCA. But now that you say that RDU did well for most of them, there is more to it than just the fact that we did well so NC should do well also. We all know it doesn't work like that many times. There are other years where the Aleutian low was there in Oct but didn't translate into a snowy winter. This is a cherry picked list for our region.  

 

The Nov composites for the same years show the anomaly continuing and then most featured blocking during met winter. The dataset is small in the grand scheme but it's something notable at the very least. And I'm not complaining that guidance is pointing towards October possibly having the same general LW pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

KATL: S/IP 2"+ from this list for NDJFM: 57, 59, 63, 66, 67, 78, 79, 81, 82, 86, 87, 95, 2009 (13 of 18) can't see last year

 

Total from 18: 54" or 3"/year....150% of normal

 

 

Hmmm, This is thought provoking stuff.  

[Bob Chill]

Hey Bob, yeah, I've been following the discussion.  Oct Aleutian low appears to favor high latitude blocking for the winter.  It also, not surprisingly, seems to coincide with high snow advance years in Eurasia as well - I made a post about it here.

 

Looking at the subsequent winters in the composite for Charlotte, 17-18 were colder than the long term avg (135 yr) and 13-18 were above the long term median for snowfall.

 

Nice post. I think zwyts may have opened my eyes to a potential early signal. I usually don't pay attention to anything except enso, pdo, and snow cover stuff in Oct. I generally don't look at long wave patterns until November or even December. It will be interesting to see how the npac lw pattern runs in Oct and how the SAI proceeds. 

 

I've been mostly indifferent and slightly bearish for the upcoming winter. We aren't getting a mod nino and we also have plenty of risk for warm neutral conditions at best. Time will tell there. Even if we go weak, hl blocking will be extremely important. This is stating the obvious but it's true nonetheless. 

[Brick Tamland]

The persimmons say prepare for a lot of snow.

http://farmersalmanac.com/blog/2014/09/26/persimmon-lady-winter-2015/

[Cold Rain]

DT talks about the winter in his latest "This Week In Weather" video on his facebook page.  He sounds pretty bullish...so far.

[FallsLake]

DT talks about the winter in his latest "This Week In Weather" video on his facebook page.  He sounds pretty bullish...so far.

Most long rang forecasters seem to be on the cold/snowy side for this winter. The strength of the El Nino seems to be looking good and the early snow buildup in Eurasia is looking good (for now). Always hopeful...

[Cold Rain]

Most long rang forecasters seem to be on the cold/snowy side for this winter. The strength of the El Nino seems to be looking good and the early snow buildup in Eurasia is looking good (for now). Always hopeful...

 

I love this time of year.  There is so much to look forward to -- so much data to look at.  I know there's a lot we don't know about LR forecasting, but it's interesting to read all of the discussions nonetheless.  So far, there is a lot of compelling evidence in support of a colder winter.  It'll be fun to see how things shape up over the next 6 weeks or so:  snow cover build-up and advance, nino development, Pacific warm pool, October pattern, QBO evolution, acorns, squirrels, persimmons, etc...

[griteater]

Monster Aleutian low is setting up on the ensembles starting about Oct 5th...really favorable pattern to get the NPI where we want it for October (in El Ninos). It actually looks very similar to how October 2002 developed....so we'll have to see how it looks deeper into the month. It is definitely a very good sign though IMHO.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

 

Monster Aleutian low is setting up on the ensembles starting about Oct 5th...really favorable pattern to get the NPI where we want it for October (in El Ninos). It actually looks very similar to how October 2002 developed....so we'll have to see how it looks deeper into the month. It is definitely a very good sign though IMHO.

 

Or never trust any model showing rain past 24 hours.

[LithiaWx]

Monster Aleutian low is setting up on the ensembles starting about Oct 5th...really favorable pattern to get the NPI where we want it for October (in El Ninos). It actually looks very similar to how October 2002 developed....so we'll have to see how it looks deeper into the month. It is definitely a very good sign though IMHO.

Ensembles are to be trusted IMO, ORH is also a great met and people should take what he says seriously. I've never known him to hype stuff.

[GaWx]

Ensembles are to be trusted IMO, ORH is also a great met and people should take what he says seriously. I've never known him to hype stuff.

 

 I have to vouch for ORH for his objectivity, largely based on his "Climate Change" forum posts. That along with his inteligence, written communication skills, and wx knowledge makes him someone to which people should pay attention imo. That being said, predicting the wx is a very tough job and nobody is even close to perfect, of course.

[DaculaWeather]

 I have to vouch for ORH for his objectivity, largely based on his "Climate Change" forum posts. That along with his inteligence, written communication slills, and wx knowledge makes him someone to which people should pay attention imo. That being said, predicting the wx is a very tough job and nobody is even close to perfect, of course.

+1

[Cold Rain]

Northeast US Weather.com like the SE for cold and snow:  http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014-2015-preliminary-winter-outlook/

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Northeast US Weather.com like the SE for cold and snow:  http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014-2015-preliminary-winter-outlook/

Wow. So basically 90% of the counttry will be at or below average and the only area that will be above average will only be "slightly" above average.

[Cold Rain]

Wow. So basically 90% of the counttry will be at or below average and the only area that will be above average will only be "slightly" above average.

 

Worst Winter EVER!

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Worst Winter EVER!

Bring it ! I want a winter similar to what we had in the late 70s or 80s. I hope Atlanta gets a foot of snow and sub zero temps. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Bring it ! I want a winter similar to what we had in the late 70s or 80s. I hope Atlanta gets a foot of snow and sub zero temps. 

 

Be careful what you wish for. All the indices that we long for during the winter seem to be coming into focus. Now, if it doesn't go belly-up, this could be a historic winter for some parts of our region. As it stands right now, I would safely say that the mountains will have the ski season they have been waiting for, especially if we can manage a weak Nino and some blocking. Next month we will be able to get a better handle on the predominant winter pattern.

[jburns]

I love this time of year.  There is so much to look forward to -- so much data to look at.  I know there's a lot we don't know about LR forecasting, but it's interesting to read all of the discussions nonetheless.  So far, there is a lot of compelling evidence in support of a colder winter.  It'll be fun to see how things shape up over the next 6 weeks or so:  snow cover build-up and advance, nino development, Pacific warm pool, October pattern, QBO evolution, acorns, squirrels, persimmons, etc...

 

October is the most optimistic month of the year in regards to upcoming winter weather.  No matter what the pattern, there will be numerous posts showing analogs of a cold winter following.  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

October is the most optimistic month of the year in regards to upcoming winter weather.  No matter what the pattern, there will be numerous posts showing analogs of a cold winter following.  

Yep. October not only gives us the specatular fall weather, but it's also a month where we have so many hopes and dreams. Even in October 2011 we had a lot of optimism, despite what happened that winter. 

[Bob Chill]

October is the most optimistic month of the year in regards to upcoming winter weather.  No matter what the pattern, there will be numerous posts showing analogs of a cold winter following.  

 

I'm thinking Dec is going to be torchy but I'm afraid to post it. 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I'm thinking Dec is going to be torchy but I'm afraid to post it. 

Well, there goes 1/3 of our winter then. Hopefully January and February will be a little colder.