2014-15 winter outlook

[tonysc]

Last year the NAM clown map had 10" of snow for virtually the entire state of NC like 3 days out (I think it was 3 days out...it was either 2 or 3).  We ended up getting a lot of sleet.

Local TV Mets the night before the day of the biggest part of the storm showed 10" - 14" across the Upstate of SC as long as the sleet didn't take over earlier than expected, which is what happened.

[packbacker]

CFSv2 is coming around....

 

[dsaur]

Mark,

 Thanks for your reply. Regarding the Euro, this part of your Dec. 2013 writeup is most important imo:

 "The ECMWF has a particularly difficult time with this area, in which it highly favors snowfall when there is a layer of above freezing temperatures somewhere between the ground and the cloud tops. This often results in much greater snowfall in areas that may actually receive little to no snow!"

 

 This is consistent with what I was told. So, it generates either rain or snow as you said...so no ZR, graupel, or IP. It appears that as long as it is 32 or colder at the surface, all IP is treated as accumulating snow. Also, all ZR appears to be treated as accumulated snow. This is a big disappointment vs. the GFS and a big problem in the SE US since I think they get a higher % of total wintry precip. as these forms vs. many other parts of the country. Could it be they do that because perhaps there's relatively little ZR or IP in Europe??

Larry, Sondheim wrote about this in 73, with Ban ning the Clowns, later popularized by Judy Collins.  I believe it was in direct response to the maps showing no hint of the horrors to descend on Atl. in Jan.  It's hard to know which side to fall on with this.  If you take a given clown map it gives hope, albeit false in the extreme, but a glimmer of the positive for the teeming, hoping masses, unlike a typical Ken Cook map which will throttle all hope with a loud "NAY", nay, nay, and double nay.  It won't happen ever.  The clown map affords the uninitiated with a chance to deal with crushing defeat, hopeless hope, smashed dreams, and they do it over and over, so one becomes inured to the awful disappointment, and if one lives to a ripe old age, one is tempered to the constant disappointment which is the lot of a snow lover in the deep south.   A Ken Cook style map only helps to foster that glimmer of hope still alive in the unbroken, because it is obvious to those who pay attention he is occasionally wrong, and it will snow in Atl sometimes, despite his protestations.  Whereas a 14" clown map will never be right, at least until the new ice age starts, with a new minimum, and even then, it won't happen at the airport, so it won't be reported widely.... unless it's the Blizzard redux, and that's only from the Hooch north.  I know you fall on the side of accuracy, but where's the fun in that?  I could predict right now, and draw a map, and say it probably won't snow 14 inches in Atl this winter, or even 10 inches, or even 5 inches, at the airport, and I'll be right in the 90 percentile, but that's no fun, and won't teach those not paying attention the searing pain of disappointment, like a good clown map will, lol.  And the best part is it could have snowed 14 inches, or even 20 inches, except the winds turned around as the low neared and warmed up just enough, in a narrow band, a few hundreds of feet up, to turn it all to rain, or a mix, lol.  So see there is searing heartbreak even for those in the know, lol.  But even though we know, we keep coming back for more, because down deep we believe a clown map can be true one day, and maybe before we are dead, though unlikely   Usually clown maps are only right before, or after your particular life time.  And really, what is a clown anyway, but a mixture of truth, pain, pathos, and humour?  Embrace the clown, Larry, with it's squeezable red nose, and it's seltzer bottle, sure it's scary as hell, and makes you hide behind the couch, but you keep on  peeking at it, in the end. T

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

CFSv2 is coming around....

 

 

Coming around to what? That map shows no cold air to speak of in Canada or Alaska. I'll bet my eye teeth that map will look nothing like the winter verification anomalies when all is said and done. This is a typical El-Nino looking map and I would not put much stock in it.

[GaWx]

Larry, Sondheim wrote about this in 73, with Ban ning the Clowns, later popularized by Judy Collins.  I believe it was in direct response to the maps showing no hint of the horrors to descend on Atl. in Jan.  It's hard to know which side to fall on with this.  If you take a given clown map it gives hope, albeit false in the extreme, but a glimmer of the positive for the teeming, hoping masses, unlike a typical Ken Cook map which will throttle all hope with a loud "NAY", nay, nay, and double nay.  It won't happen ever.  The clown map affords the uninitiated with a chance to deal with crushing defeat, hopeless hope, smashed dreams, and they do it over and over, so one becomes inured to the awful disappointment, and if one lives to a ripe old age, one is tempered to the constant disappointment which is the lot of a snow lover in the deep south.   A Ken Cook style map only helps to foster that glimmer of hope still alive in the unbroken, because it is obvious to those who pay attention he is occasionally wrong, and it will snow in Atl sometimes, despite his protestations.  Whereas a 14" clown map will never be right, at least until the new ice age starts, with a new minimum, and even then, it won't happen at the airport, so it won't be reported widely.... unless it's the Blizzard redux, and that's only from the Hooch north.  I know you fall on the side of accuracy, but where's the fun in that?  I could predict right now, and draw a map, and say it probably won't snow 14 inches in Atl this winter, or even 10 inches, or even 5 inches, at the airport, and I'll be right in the 90 percentile, but that's no fun, and won't teach those not paying attention the searing pain of disappointment, like a good clown map will, lol.  And the best part is it could have snowed 14 inches, or even 20 inches, except the winds turned around as the low neared and warmed up just enough, in a narrow band, a few hundreds of feet up, to turn it all to rain, or a mix, lol.  So see there is searing heartbreak even for those in the know, lol.  But even though we know, we keep coming back for more, because down deep we believe a clown map can be true one day, and maybe before we are dead, though unlikely   Usually clown maps are only right before, or after your particular life time.  And really, what is a clown anyway, but a mixture of truth, pain, pathos, and humour?  Embrace the clown, Larry, with it's squeezable red nose, and it's seltzer bottle, sure it's scary as hell, and makes you hide behind the couch, but you keep on  peeking at it, in the end. T

 

 LMAO! Great stuff, Tony! I always was a clown lover and truster all of my life til the dreaded Euro clowns changed my feelings about them. I even went on Bozo the clown's show twice in Savannah and was in the peanut gallery. When Judy Collins' "Banning the Clowns" was released, I hated the song with a passion because I didn't understand why the heck anyone would want to ban a single clown. However, now I think I can empathize with Judy. Sad.

[Cold Rain]

Coming around to what? That map shows no cold air to speak of in Canada or Alaska. I'll bet my eye teeth that map will look nothing like the winter verification anomalies when all is said and done. This is a typical El-Nino looking map and I would not put much stock in it.

Coming around in that it's not as bad as the last one and now isn't torching the SE. It'll get there.

[Jon]

I think the CFS trough is misplaced over the pacific which is in turn, misplacing the ridge over the US. I assume we'll start to see what we want sooner than later, but don't read into the CFSv2 too much even though it's the only seasonal long range thing we have...it will just make you depressed until it can figure itself out. We will know soon enough I imagine.

[HWY316wx]

Larry, Sondheim wrote about this in 73, with Ban ning the Clowns, later popularized by Judy Collins.  I believe it was in direct response to the maps showing no hint of the horrors to descend on Atl. in Jan.  It's hard to know which side to fall on with this.  If you take a given clown map it gives hope, albeit false in the extreme, but a glimmer of the positive for the teeming, hoping masses, unlike a typical Ken Cook map which will throttle all hope with a loud "NAY", nay, nay, and double nay.  It won't happen ever.  The clown map affords the uninitiated with a chance to deal with crushing defeat, hopeless hope, smashed dreams, and they do it over and over, so one becomes inured to the awful disappointment, and if one lives to a ripe old age, one is tempered to the constant disappointment which is the lot of a snow lover in the deep south.   A Ken Cook style map only helps to foster that glimmer of hope still alive in the unbroken, because it is obvious to those who pay attention he is occasionally wrong, and it will snow in Atl sometimes, despite his protestations.  Whereas a 14" clown map will never be right, at least until the new ice age starts, with a new minimum, and even then, it won't happen at the airport, so it won't be reported widely.... unless it's the Blizzard redux, and that's only from the Hooch north.  I know you fall on the side of accuracy, but where's the fun in that?  I could predict right now, and draw a map, and say it probably won't snow 14 inches in Atl this winter, or even 10 inches, or even 5 inches, at the airport, and I'll be right in the 90 percentile, but that's no fun, and won't teach those not paying attention the searing pain of disappointment, like a good clown map will, lol.  And the best part is it could have snowed 14 inches, or even 20 inches, except the winds turned around as the low neared and warmed up just enough, in a narrow band, a few hundreds of feet up, to turn it all to rain, or a mix, lol.  So see there is searing heartbreak even for those in the know, lol.  But even though we know, we keep coming back for more, because down deep we believe a clown map can be true one day, and maybe before we are dead, though unlikely   Usually clown maps are only right before, or after your particular life time.  And really, what is a clown anyway, but a mixture of truth, pain, pathos, and humour?  Embrace the clown, Larry, with it's squeezable red nose, and it's seltzer bottle, sure it's scary as hell, and makes you hide behind the couch, but you keep on  peeking at it, in the end. T

Classic.  Needs to be pinned for all the GA posters.

[NCSNOW]

Saw this posted on another weather blog: Anyway for entertainment purposes.

 

On another note, I have been thinking about winter (obviously given how the hurricane season hasn't kept me terribly occupied), and for those in NC, I have noticed in some of my research of El Nino winters (as this upcoming winter appears likely to be) that El Ninos seem to be an enhancement of climatology, filled to the brim w/ cold air damming & gradient snow events w/ highest amounts of snow & ice further north & west in NC. I also noticed that in each El Nino winter, there was at least one storm (occasionally two) that defied the more typical gradient pattern, as snows inundated areas further south & east in NC....

2009-10
Feb 12-13 2010




2006-07
Feb 1 2007
(I personally remember in 5th grade actually going to school on normal schedule on this day and playing some football outside in the snow with some of my buddies, that was awesome)




2004-05
Dec 26 2004




2002-03
Jan 22-23 2003




1982-83
March 24-25 1983

Thus, an area generally along a line from near the Virginia border north of Raleigh to Roxboro & thru Greensboro/Winston-Salem consistently cashes in a big way in terms of snow & ice in El Nino winters. Charlotte & Raleigh have a tendency to pick up @ least some scraps in CAD events that are prevalent in these winters, but further southeast towards Fayetteville, Wilmington, Elizabeth City, Goldsboro/Wilson, etc, it's mostly hit & miss and honestly all you can do is hope something good happens. These seasonal snow maps for NC for select years were created by intricately combining all of the RAH past event maps into one for a particular winter and surely some totals may be off (near the mtns especially) as every snowfall that occurs here is likely not recorded & placed by the NWS into their archive...








NC Snowfall Climatology



The 2003 storm was funny because it's rare for the Outer Banks to get more snow than western counties and I remember the news showing seagulls trying to make do with the situation.

[dsaur]

Classic.  Needs to be pinned for all the GA posters.

Lol, thanks   I tried to sway Larry, but dulcet tones, and conniveling pseudo logic will not dissuade him from the path of accuracy, and correctitude.  Even my incontestable admonishments about the abysmally  imperfect airport totals when compared to Jonesboro, or Hapeville, or the near environs  will not move him from the path.  To him the abacus is the Alpha and Omega and must be cleaved to in  all matters   Of course that's why he is the expert, and I'm the buffoon, but what the hey, every village needs it's idiot   T

[GaWx]

Lol, thanks   I tried to sway Larry, but dulcet tones, and conniveling pseudo logic will not dissuade him from the path of accuracy, and correctitude.  Even my incontestable admonishments about the abysmally  imperfect airport totals when compared to Jonesboro, or Hapeville, or the near environs  will not move him from the path.  To him the abacus is the Alpha and Omega and must be cleaved to in  all matters   Of course that's why he is the expert, and I'm the buffoon, but what the hey, every village needs it's idiot   T

 

Lol. Spock is my hero.

[Kory]

Not really directly related to winter, but we're seeing a much different pattern this year versus last year leading up to winter.  Huge North Pacific storm, in the Gulf of Alaska, is in an area that has been plagued by significant ridging the past year.  Also, the jet stream is more active and stronger than usual for this time of year. 

 

 

[LithiaWx]

Not really directly related to winter, but we're seeing a much different pattern this year versus last year leading up to winter.  Huge North Pacific storm, in the Gulf of Alaska, is in an area that has been plagued by significant ridging the past year.  Also, the jet stream is more active and stronger than usual for this time of year. 

 

 

 

 

I noticed the west coast storm as well and thought that a big pattern change was incoming...  I wonder how that translates into late fall.

[SoCoWx]

Is that a potentially good thing?

[mackerel_sky]

Is that a potentially good thing?

I think so!? The big low in the GOA, should pump a ridge over inter mountain west and W Canada, and cause a trough over the East.

[Wow]

I think so!? The big low in the GOA, should pump a ridge over inter mountain west and W Canada, and cause a trough over the East.

 

El Nino-like pattern with a stronger sub-tropical jet.  Big GOA lows pump up the western ridge and trough in the East.  More prevalent split flow pattern... that's why weak El Nino's are preferred.  Too strong and the sub tropical jet overwhelms and floods the US with Pacific air.

[Kory]

For whatever it's worth, JAMSTEC released their trimonthly forecast for DJF is out (it was posted in another subforum).  It shows a cooler central part of the country, but warmer NE and average SE (cooler anomalies appeared to shifted west a bit from the previous run).  The precip forecast looks like a Nino signal, but the temperature forecast doesn't look like much of a Nino to me.  

 

 

[Tacoma]

You don't know who to believe so I don't.  One forecast is for cooler and more snow than normal for the southeast and then you see another map like the one above that says average temps.  I'll hope for the more snow forecast and hope for the best.  I have seen more forecast for more snow and colder than normal than one's with average or above temps.  Let's hope its colder and more snow.

[Cold Rain]

You don't know who to believe so I don't.  One forecast is for cooler and more snow than normal for the southeast and then you see another map like the one above that says average temps.  I'll hope for the more snow forecast and hope for the best.  I have seen more forecast for more snow and colder than normal than one's with average or above temps.  Let's hope its colder and more snow.

 

Here is the Jamstec last year at this time (courtesy of the Mid Atlantic Winter thread).  As you can see, it was just a little bit off:

 

[Cold Rain]

The bottom line is that there is still some important data yet to be collected over the next 6-8 weeks that will give  clues to how winter should unfold.  Right now, the evidence probably tips slightly toward colder.  That could change, but right now, I believe the colder solution is the way to go this year.

[Kory]

The bottom line is that there is still some important data yet to be collected over the next 6-8 weeks that will give  clues to how winter should unfold.  Right now, the evidence probably tips slightly toward colder.  That could change, but right now, I believe the colder solution is the way to go this year.

Exactly, I don't know why people are splitting hairs over what one run of the CFSv2 is showing or whatever.  I just post them as the other side of the argument.  Nature will do whatever it wants to do.  Someone will be disappointed no matter the outcome.  It doesn't hurt to discuss the different outcomes, but just take these maps with a grain of salt.  

[tnweathernut]

Even if we are nitpicking details, that map shows warmer than normal for Alaska and warmer than normal in the west.  I'd take my chances with that all day long and twice on Sunday.

[Cold Rain]

Even if we are nitpicking details, that map shows warmer than normal for Alaska and warmer than normal in the west.  I'd take my chances with that all day long and twice on Sunday.

 

I was just reading the New England forum and it was suggested that the CFS might be trending toward a +PNA/-AO config now.  Still early in the game and exact details on those maps are not worth much at this point, but the trends may be becoming favorable.  Good to hear from a TN neighbor.  Hope you've been well!

[burgertime]

I was just reading the New England forum and it was suggested that the CFS might be trending toward a +PNA/-AO config now.  Still early in the game and exact details on those maps are not worth much at this point, but the trends may be becoming favorable.  Good to hear from a TN neighbor.  Hope you've been well!

 

That will be the most important part of the puzzle. Couple that with a weak El Nino and we could have a couple of blockbusters rolling through the south. Of course Einstein's theory on insanity applies here. How often have models showed a great configuration only to shat the bed a couple of days later?  

[Shawn]

For those of you that can see the premium JB stuff on the weatherbell site, it makes a lot of sense and is very possible that their official Winter forecast could be too warm for many even.

 

JB basically is not moving from his guns of a "fun/below average" winter in the SE.  He thinks the GFS is out of it, and has proven how horrible it's been with lows.  Way too cold already this season.. feedback problems, etc.

 

Euro looks the way to go all the way currently.... and after last year's ice storm that no american model wanted to jump on until like 2 or 3 days out (sometimes worse), I'll be on the Euros ensemble side all Winter.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

For those of you that can see the premium JB stuff on the weatherbell site, it makes a lot of sense and is very possible that their official Winter forecast could be too warm for many even.

 

JB basically is not moving from his guns of a "fun/below average" winter in the SE.  He thinks the GFS is out of it, and has proven how horrible it's been with lows.  Way too cold already this season.. feedback problems, etc.

 

Euro looks the way to go all the way currently.... and after last year's ice storm that no american model wanted to jump on until like 2 or 3 days out (sometimes worse), I'll be on the Euros ensemble side all Winter.

 

  Yep, that's not a bad idea. They have a pretty good track record, especially a few days out when other models can't get a handle on what is happening. As for JB, he is always biased on the cold side. However, this time, it looks like he just might be on to something. If everything plays out as expected (Enso, NAO, and the PNA) we could be staring down the barrel of a cold and snowy winter.

  Somewhat off topic... I have a large buck oak tree in my front yard and yesterday an 8" limb came crashing to the ground. There was no wind. So, I investigated it to see if it was rotten. Come to find out, it had snapped off as a result of the weight of all the acorns that it was holding. The tree is literally so loaded that I am afraid to let the kids play under it for fear of another large limb falling down. I have always heard the old folks talk about the acorn crop being a sign of the upcoming winter, and if that is true, we are in for a cold one.

[GaWx]

For those of you that can see the premium JB stuff on the weatherbell site, it makes a lot of sense and is very possible that their official Winter forecast could be too warm for many even.

 

JB basically is not moving from his guns of a "fun/below average" winter in the SE.  He thinks the GFS is out of it, and has proven how horrible it's been with lows.  Way too cold already this season.. feedback problems, etc.

 

Euro looks the way to go all the way currently.... and after last year's ice storm that no american model wanted to jump on until like 2 or 3 days out (sometimes worse), I'll be on the Euros ensemble side all Winter.

 

Shawn,

 I largely agree but with the caveat that the silly Euro ens clowns would show massive snowfalls even when it is predicting a major ZR (lol) despite it being the best model. For those who didn't see it, the pro met, Ellinwood, confirmed that the Euro is not even able to predict ZR or IP. It can predict only rain or snow!

[LithiaWx]

For those of you that can see the premium JB stuff on the weatherbell site, it makes a lot of sense and is very possible that their official Winter forecast could be too warm for many even.

 

JB basically is not moving from his guns of a "fun/below average" winter in the SE.  He thinks the GFS is out of it, and has proven how horrible it's been with lows.  Way too cold already this season.. feedback problems, etc.

 

Euro looks the way to go all the way currently.... and after last year's ice storm that no american model wanted to jump on until like 2 or 3 days out (sometimes worse), I'll be on the Euros ensemble side all Winter.

 

 

The GFS does have a cold bias sort of like Bastardi.

[calculus1]

The GFS does have a cold bias sort of like Bastard.

 

I think you left a letter off there, Marietta. 

 

Oh, did you mean that intentionally?

[LithiaWx]

I think you left a letter off there, Marietta. 

 

Oh, did you mean that intentionally?

 

Auto correct, my bad lol...