FLO Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 All I have read is that the SE will have warmer temps this winter starting in the fall. El Nino will be mild to moderate thus not giving us many oppurtunities for snow and ice. I was hoping for a repeat of last year. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kory Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I gotta disagree. The only thing the SE needs to watch for is warm anomalies off the SE Coast. This could lead to some ridging for the SE, but this biggest thing is the warm pool in the NE Pacific which helped with such a cold winter last year. I think the biggest thing to look for is the EPO, NAO, and AO. -EPO and -AO are to send the cold south and -NAO to lock it in. Last year was very cold but very progressive. We'd moderate every few days afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 All I have read is that the SE will have warmer temps this winter starting in the fall. El Nino will be mild to moderate thus not giving us many oppurtunities for snow and ice. I was hoping for a repeat of last year. Oh well. I gotta disagree. The only thing the SE needs to watch for is warm anomalies off the SE Coast. This could lead to some ridging for the SE, but this biggest thing is the warm pool in the NE Pacific which helped with such a cold winter last year. I think the biggest thing to look for is the EPO, NAO, and AO. -EPO and -AO are to send the cold south and -NAO to lock it in. Last year was very cold but very progressive. We'd moderate every few days afterward. Right. Nothing at all to worry about at this point. It's looking like a strong Nino is off the table, and if you've been following Larry's posts, there are some indications favoring a colder/snowier winter for the SE, not the least of which is the Pac warm pool you mentioned. It's way to early to get excited or bummed about anything winter related. But at this point, I'm leaning toward the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 This winter will be colder with continued anomalous troughs continuing through winter like we have seen in July. The wintry precip may be hard to come by with alot of NW flow. The ridging off the East coast look would help immensely , if that can continue through winter! I will have final thoughts after I read the Old Farmers Almanac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Lol, Mack. On the weather in July, Winter will rely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 This thread couldnt be anymore pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 This thread couldnt be anymore pointless. Agree, but it does give me a chance to put something out there. This winter, we are not going to start event threads because something shows up on the 10 day GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Agree, but it does give me a chance to put something out there. This winter, we are not going to start event threads because something shows up on the 10 day GFS. So how long do we wait? 3 days out? 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Joe Bastardi has his points documented on the upcoming winter for clients. A good read. Study up on them. Hint: As of now, the blend of these have the highest probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So how long do we wait? 3 days out? 2?The day of because these models suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So how long do we wait? 3 days out? 2? Still discussing it. My vote is no more than 5 days out. Before that it should be discussed in the general winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Still discussing it. My vote is no more than 5 days out. Before that it should be discussed in the general winter thread. That sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 That sounds good to me. I'm glad. Now I'll be able to sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 And I think we are due for an epic winter. Last year was nice, certainly better than the previous few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 +1 Still discussing it. My vote is no more than 5 days out. Before that it should be discussed in the general winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 And I think we are due for an epic winter. Last year was nice, certainly better than the previous few years. Last winter was an epic CAD winter. The CAD will be hard to beat. Furthermore, Jan. 2014 was a very cold month though the overall winter was only modestly below average. Regardless, I think the chances for an even colder winter than 13-14 overall (even if not colder January, itself) are decent in 14-15 because a weak Nino/+PDO combo is very much a possibility. If we also get a -NAO to dominate, it could be quite the cold winter as weak Nino/+PDO/-NAO is about as good as any combo for cold in the SE US. Could we see another quite cold winter like 09-10 if we get this combo? It certainly wouldn't shock me. We all know you always love it cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I meant epic as in getting snow. Last winter was cold and decent as far as the snow and ice went, but it wasn't epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I meant epic as in getting snow. Last winter was cold and decent as far as the snow and ice went, but it wasn't epic. I couldn't recall if you liked ice in addition to snow. Down in GA from a snow/ZR/IP standpoint, I'd take a repeat of last winter in a heartbeat! Even Savannah got both some ZR and a little bit of IP, a rather rare event there. The CAD was amazing. The winter was nonstop with excitement and forecasting drama. CHS had several wintry events! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I couldn't recall if you liked ice in addition to snow. Down in GA from a snow/ZR/IP standpoint, I'd take a repeat of last winter in a heartbeat! Even Waycross got some ZR and a little bit of IP. The CAD was amazing. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 FYP Yep, Waycross getting its little bit of ZR/IP made it quite the winter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Still discussing it. My vote is no more than 5 days out. Before that it should be discussed in the general winter thread. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Agree. There can be some flexibility as well. If every model, the SPC, and NWS offices, are screaming 93 superstorm redux 7 days out, it would make sense to start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 I meant epic as in getting snow. Last winter was cold and decent as far as the snow and ice went, but it wasn't epic. We got like 16" of snow here (~180% of average). There was a pretty distinct line just east of Greensboro were less snow was seen, though (well, besides New Bern, which got 10" in a single storm). Of course, a good portion of our "snow" was actually sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Last winter was an epic CAD winter. The CAD will be hard to beat. Furthermore, Jan. 2014 was a very cold month though the overall winter was only modestly below average. Regardless, I think the chances for an even colder winter than 13-14 overall (even if not colder January, itself) are decent in 14-15 because a weak WEST BASED Nino/+PDO combo is very much a possibility. If we also get a -NAO to dominate, it could be quite the cold winter as weak WEST BASED Nino/+PDO/-NAO is about as good as any combo for cold in the SE US. Could we see another quite cold winter like 09-10 if we get this combo? It certainly wouldn't shock me. We all know you always love it cold. fyp There can be some flexibility as well. If every model, the SPC, and NWS offices, are screaming 93 superstorm redux 7 days out, it would make sense to start a thread. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 And I think we are due for an epic winter. Last year was nice, certainly better than the previous few years. I think Atlanta is due for an epic snowstorm. The airport hasn't had a snowstorm more than 4" in like 30 years ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I couldn't recall if you liked ice in addition to snow. Down in GA from a snow/ZR/IP standpoint, I'd take a repeat of last winter in a heartbeat! Even Savannah got both some ZR and a little bit of IP, a rather rare event there. The CAD was amazing. The winter was nonstop with excitement and forecasting drama. CHS had several wintry events! is savannah even a cad region ? I thought cad occurred just to the east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 is savannah even a cad region ? I thought cad occurred just to the east of the mountains.Savannah is East of the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 I'm canceling winter now just so we can get that out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 All I have read is that the SE will have warmer temps this winter starting in the fall. El Nino will be mild to moderate thus not giving us many oppurtunities for snow and ice. I was hoping for a repeat of last year. Oh well. Actually, you want a mid (weak) El-Nino for the best chances of a snowy winter here in the SE. The warm pool in the NE Pacific looks good for a repeat of the -EPO we saw last winter. Let's wait and see where we are in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 2, 2014 Share Posted August 2, 2014 Actually, you want a mid (weak) El-Nino for the best chances of a snowy winter here in the SE. The warm pool in the NE Pacific looks good for a repeat of the -EPO we saw last winter. Let's wait and see where we are in September. There are definitely some positive forces in play this year that point to the possibility of a decent winter season if you like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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