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August 2014 Obs and Discussion


H2O

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Not sure how valid it will be for us overnight and tomorrow, but just take a look at national radar. Lots of holes. I'm expecting something similar to what you described, which means I'll end up in the jackpot zone :(

It makes me feel good that 18z NAM isn't much different than 12z (especially DC North and East), I just have that feeling that like 30% of our area will get over an inch, 10% over 3 inches (mapgirl and Southern PA), and 60% under half an inch

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LWX handled the rain well in their afternoon disco, imo. What's coming in now is the most solid shield of precip that we'll get and tomorrow will be more scattered in nature, but what does fall could be heavy. They're expecting the convection to the west to die overnight, so this shield of rain moving in now is what we're in for tonight and its not terribly heavy. 

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1hr estimated looks impressive. Darkest green is 1" and yellow is 1.25". I don't have a gauge in the yard right now but I'm certain I've gotten at least and inch and still pouring. 

 

attachicon.gif1hrestimated.JPG

 

I think the radar estimates are actually undercutting this one.  I'm seeing a lot of 2"+ totals in MoCo, with the bulk of the rain in a short period.  I'm sitting at 1.53" storm total, and the radar estimate is less than an inch.

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I think the radar estimates are actually undercutting this one.  I'm seeing a lot of 2"+ totals in MoCo, with the bulk of the rain in a short period.  I'm sitting at 1.53" storm total, and the radar estimate is less than an inch.

 

It's just a 1hr snapshot. Storm total isn't working on COD. I had a waterfall running down my terraces 30 minutes ago. I'll bet I'm in the 1.5 - 2" total range and it came quick. This is the latest 1hr. Some 1.75" showing up. Wow. 

 

 

post-2035-0-45010000-1407858853_thumb.jp

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It's just a 1hr snapshot. Storm total isn't working on COD. I had a waterfall running down my terraces 30 minutes ago. I'll bet I'm in the 1.5 - 2" total range and it came quick. This is the latest 1hr. Some 1.75" showing up. Wow. 

 

 

attachicon.gif1hrupdate.JPG

 

I don't think it is just COD, the Radarscope total is also funny.  The digital accumulation products seem more in line with what is happening out there. 

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FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

1154 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

DCZ001-MDZ005>007-009>011-013-014-016-VAZ052>057-130000-

/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0009.140812T1600Z-140813T0600Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-

MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-

CHARLES-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...WESTMINSTER...

GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...

FREDERICKSBURG

1154 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF

COLUMBIA AND VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN

MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...CHARLES...HARFORD...

HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES AND

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...FAIRFAX...KING GEORGE...

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK...SPOTSYLVANIA AND

STAFFORD.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH IT WONT BE RAINING ALL THE TIME...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAVE THE GOUND WATER CLOGGED...

RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FLOODING.

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