Bob Chill Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 Ensembles still holding the idea of lowest heights in the conus centered in the west is about 10 days through the ends of the runs. Still a warm look here. Not hot but aoa. Honestly, I don't care much about September one way or the other. It's a nice transition month that's usually full of swings. As nwbwx said, heat in september is very tolerable. The days always start out cooler than July heat. Once we hit Oct I crave cool crisp air and winter speculation is in full swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 9, 2014 Share Posted August 9, 2014 I didn't know where to post this, but here it goes. The CFSv2 is now beginning to show a slightly below average September. The first week of the month starts out average to slightly above average, but then it starts showing some -2 to -3 degree departures later in the month. I didn't know where to post this, but here it goes. The CFSv2 is now beginning to show a slightly below average September. The first week of the month starts out average to slightly above average, but then it starts showing some -2 to -3 degree departures later in the month. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 TBH I'd really like to see some warm/hot weather to end this month. It's August. We are way below normal in terms of 90+ days here. It's strange.The runs may still show a warm look ten days out, but all summer we've seen that get pushed further back or disappear altogether. I imagine we'll continue to see more of the same. Even if we do get warmer, I don't see big heat. Lol, you didn't have to stomach the endless fire-pit from 2010-2012. Stick around a few more summers and maybe your opinion will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I kind of like big heat (ducks behind couch to avoid coming shots) Haha, no worries. You're from SNE, right? We do "big heat" a bit differently down here, just saying.93/75 afternoons are pretty normal around these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 84 for the high today. Felt pretty uncomfortable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Haha, wow I swear I'm switching to Samsung. My phone does some crazy-weird spell checking sometimes. Sorry to anyone who had to read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 TBH I'd really like to see some warm/hot weather to end this month. It's August. We are way below normal in terms of 90+ days here. It's strange.The runs may still show a warm look ten days out, but all summer we've seen that get pushed further back or disappear altogether. I imagine we'll continue to see more of the same. Even if we do get warmer, I don't see big heat. Only in this forum do people openly cheer for heat and humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Looks like Tuesday could be a bit damp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Only in this forum do people openly cheer for heat and humidity. And only on this forum do people openly cheer for snow and cold in fall and spring. Weather geeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Looks like Tuesday could be a bit dampI sure hope so. I could go for a rainy day. This boring, sunny weather sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I apologize for the random thoughts below (I'm bored). I wish the GFS wasn't broken... It says the low tonight is going to be 53 degrees up here. The problem is it's not. No other model supports its outlandish predictions. Projected lows: 12z GFS: 53 12z 4 km NAM: 66 00z EURO: 68 12z CMC: 66 Then, the NWS's forecast says the low will be 66. So, obviously they're not paying attention to the GFS. Last night, however, the GFS ended up the closest for this morning's low. It showed 58 last night, and the actual low was 62. All of the other models were showing mid-60s+. So, I think the low tonight will be somewhere between 50 and 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Think there may be a small technical issue with the temp sensor up at airport...... Either that or I'm heading up there in just a few! hahaha -11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 I apologize for the random thoughts below (I'm bored). I wish the GFS wasn't broken... It says the low tonight is going to be 53 degrees up here. The problem is it's not. No other model supports its outlandish predictions. Projected lows: 12z GFS: 53 12z 4 km NAM: 66 00z EURO: 68 12z CMC: 66 Then, the NWS's forecast says the low will be 66. So, obviously they're not paying attention to the GFS. Last night, however, the GFS ended up the closest for this morning's low. It showed 58 last night, and the actual low was 62. All of the other models were showing mid-60s+. So, I think the low tonight will be somewhere between 50 and 70 degrees. I don't get it either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Monsoon here in AZ. Lots of rain and dramatic lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Gosh, it feels hotter than 82F outside. What little heat tolerance I possess does not last through Aug. The week after next is going to be pure misery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 10, 2014 Share Posted August 10, 2014 Somehow, it managed to reach a scorching 88 degrees here. 31% humidity though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 where's the heat! 18 holes of golf, standing over a grill, push mowing back yard, walking uphill in 10' of snow and I barley broke a sweat. is this December ? btw 68.2/62.2 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 where's the heat! Next week. Maybe not sweat missiles but at least bullets and bb's. Hard to say if it has legs. Most prominent signal since before July 4th. Too far out to over think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Next week. Maybe not sweat missiles but at least bullets and bb's. Hard to say if it has legs. Most prominent signal since before July 4th. Too far out to over think. That's slightly depressing. I guess we can't complain (except for extremely boring severe). It's been a pleasant summer. I'm just pumped for some rain Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 I for one welcome the continued warm signals. It's not like any of it would linger anyway. September looks warm on the CFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Both the GFS and NAM give us an inch or more of precip by Wednesday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 That's slightly depressing. I guess we can't complain (except for extremely boring severe). It's been a pleasant summer. I'm just pumped for some rain Tuesday. It's no big deal really. It will be interesting how it shakes out. May/June was a break from trough east/ridge west pattern but it came back strong in July/Aug. I wouldn't mind a warm sept/oct at all. "Warm" during those months is still kinda nice except for maybe the first half of Sept. If the overall zonal flow w/ weak ridging in the east sets up as advertised it won't likely be a dry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 It's no big deal really. It will be interesting how it shakes out. May/June was a break from trough east/ridge west pattern but it came back strong in July/Aug. I wouldn't mind a warm sept/oct at all. "Warm" during those months is still kinda nice except for maybe the first half of Sept. If the overall zonal flow w/ weak ridging in the east sets up as advertised it won't likely be a dry pattern. Cool.. Thanks. I feel better now. I would like a average to slightly below average Sept/Oct. Cool night and mild days make for good fall color. I'm a fall color weenie:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 I am personally hoping for a bust and below average fall months. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Looks pretty wet area wide tomorrow. 1"+ most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Nam and gfs both over 2" for here...seems heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 NWS has me at a max of 1" buy WPC has me at 1.75" to 2.5"+ Whch will be correct? I am gonna play it safe and say NWS! This has been a crazy period where we have seen so much less IMBY than what is forecasted! Need the rains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Rain. It's a miracle. I'd almost forgotten what that was. 75F. Quite nice out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 Looks to me like heavy rain will be spotty in nature. More showery with the heavier burst every now and then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 11, 2014 Share Posted August 11, 2014 It makes me feel good that 18z NAM isn't much different than 12z (especially DC North and East), I just have that feeling that like 30% of our area will get over an inch, 10% over 3 inches (mapgirl and Southern PA), and 60% under half an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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