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August 2014 Obs and Discussion

H2O

By H2O,
in Mid Atlantic

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

I was going to take a shot at Flacco, but I'll just say it could be worse--he could be a Cowboys fan :lol:  

Hard to take a shot when he has a ring and has been to the playoffs 5 out of his 6 years in the NFL. And oh yeah, he had the best postseason of any QB ever 2 years ago.

 

 

 

 

Low expectations man. But Gruden is pass happy and they are going to run a hurry up offense. We'll see if RG is a real QB pretty quick. Receiving core is the best in years (at least on paper). This will give RG a chance to scramble without having the entire LB core chasing him. I just love the NFL season as a whole. I watch every night game as well.

Ob: 12 raindrops and cloudy

I think he is a real QB but because he runs to often he will get constantly banged up. He should do a lot more selective running, he may have some struggles at first but in the long run it will help him a ton.

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted

Not sure if anyone else uses this, but this is a great product from the NWS. It displays obs and other information.

 

http://preview.weather.gov/edd/?lat=40.329452873812926&lon=-75.73059082031124&zoom=6&ql=FFFFFFTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF&ml=&bm=Google_Terrain&lsr=F&lfc=F&rt=obs&rf=major|moderate|minor|action&ht=F&pid=N0Q&sf=GOES_Infrared&ri=15&obs=TFTTFFFFFFTFFFFT&is=1&ou=mph&od=-50&ships=F&cluster=T&radO=0.75&satO=0.75&hazO=0.55&tropO=0.7&ndfdO=0.7&ndfdR=Continental_US&ndfdF=Maximum_Temperature_%28%C2%BAF%29&ndfdT=12&ndfdTS=&f100=F&lviz=F&fullscreen=F&fxt=Point_%28Text_Only%29&ppd=24&pdy=3&satf=60&obsync=F&owv=F&flavor=Advanced&tfo=&tfd=&tfw=null&ht=F&hd=F&ho=null&hf=null&hb=F&ot=Meteorological_Observation&hvt=F&sht=T&uwl=F

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted

Really cool.  I especially like the elevation data.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Posted
Ensembles and ops agree that the overall below normal temp regime continues all the way through next weekend. A decent shot of cool/dry canadian air in about a week that may hang through next weekend. After that there is good agreement that conus flow flattens and we enter a period of weak ridging with aob temps. Definitely not a heatwave but a warm look as we approach the last week of the month. 

 

Now, do I believe that we go warm for a bit? We're probably at the breaking point of a 45 day lw pattern. It's hard to believe this overall pattern has existed since July 1st. I mean this is summer after all. This kind of amplification and pattern in the conus is usually reserved for the other 3 seasons:

 

post-2035-0-67082900-1407507224_thumb.jp

 

 

IF we do actually go zonal/ridging will it be part of an overall change with legs? This is the first summer I've actually meddled with lr week+ outlooks but if this was winter I would expect a shift for a time. We're going to be in between 45-60 days of persistent ec troughing. That's a pretty typical winter duration when we have persistence before a reshuffle.

 

June of this year was the other way around from the pattern since July 4th weekend. Lowest heights centered in the west and higher heights in the east:

 

post-2035-0-20223900-1407507636_thumb.jp

 

 

Just for fun and a total wag but I'm going warm to close august and maybe most if not all of Sept. And I hope i bust horribly of course. 

 

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T. August

T. August

Posted
Posted

 

Ensembles and ops agree that the overall below normal temp regime continues all the way through next weekend. A decent shot of cool/dry canadian air in about a week that may hang through next weekend. After that there is good agreement that conus flow flattens and we enter a period of weak ridging with aob temps. Definitely not a heatwave but a warm look as we approach the last week of the month. 
 
Now, do I believe that we go warm for a bit? We're probably at the breaking point of a 45 day lw pattern. It's hard to believe this overall pattern has existed since July 1st. I mean this is summer after all. This kind of amplification and pattern in the conus is usually reserved for the other 3 seasons:
 
 
 
IF we do actually go zonal/ridging will it be part of an overall change with legs? This is the first summer I've actually meddled with lr week+ outlooks but if this was winter I would expect a shift for a time. We're going to be in between 45-60 days of persistent ec troughing. That's a pretty typical winter duration when we have persistence before a reshuffle.
 
June of this year was the other way around from the pattern since July 4th weekend. Lowest heights centered in the west and higher heights in the east:
 
 
 
Just for fun and a total wag but I'm going warm to close august and maybe most if not all of Sept. And I hope i bust horribly of course. 

 

Nice post. FWIW, Joe Bastardi agrees with your outlook.

 

Also, did you happen to see the 00z GFS 2m temps for mid-August? It shows upper-20s in the mountains lol.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Certainly been a persistent longwave pattern for awhile, although most of that anomaly is from the winter.

 

post-51-0-60256700-1407509092_thumb.gif

 

post-51-0-73551600-1407509291_thumb.gif

 

post-51-0-59764700-1407509445_thumb.gif

Helped my parents have beautiful weather for their Alaskan cruise (warm and sunny).  A warm September isn't too bad if it doesn't involve any 90F+ days.  90F days in September are #theworst.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Yea wxusaf, it's been crazy since January. Even going back to late Nov it was showing it's face. We've had a break in May/June but it totally reasserted itself. 

 

IMO- even "if" it breaks down, it won't likely be an anomalous long string of 90's in Sept. DCA's average max is 84 at the beginning and 74 at the end. Zonal in Sept is nice. AOA but low humidity. We haven't ridged out in a long time now. I think the multi year se ridge we had recently got old and died and a young gun is taking it's time replacing.lol

 

There are some nasty records for the month though. 101 in 1980 and the 50's had some big heat. I'm not implying that it isn't easy to roast in Sept. Every day of the month is plenty capable of 90+. If it happens this year I will be sad.  

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nw baltimore wx

nw baltimore wx

Posted
Posted

Yea wxusaf, it's been crazy since January. Even going back to late Nov it was showing it's face. We've had a break in May/June but it totally reasserted itself. 

 

IMO- even "if" it breaks down, it won't likely be an anomalous long string of 90's in Sept. DCA's average max is 84 at the beginning and 74 at the end. Zonal in Sept is nice. AOA but low humidity. We haven't ridged out in a long time now. I think the multi year se ridge we had recently got old and died and a young gun is taking it's time replacing.lol

 

There are some nasty records for the month though. 101 in 1980 and the 50's had some big heat. I'm not implying that it isn't easy to roast in Sept. Every day of the month is plenty capable of 90+. If it happens this year I will be sad.  

 

Even if it does happen, heatwaves in September are way easier to tolerate than in July.  Shorter days and cool nighttime temperatures after even the warmest days make it seem like summer is barely holding on. Personally, I wouldn't mind a slightly above normal September and (snow-less!) October.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted

Yea wxusaf, it's been crazy since January. Even going back to late Nov it was showing it's face. We've had a break in May/June but it totally reasserted itself. 

 

IMO- even "if" it breaks down, it won't likely be an anomalous long string of 90's in Sept. DCA's average max is 84 at the beginning and 74 at the end. Zonal in Sept is nice. AOA but low humidity. We haven't ridged out in a long time now. I think the multi year se ridge we had recently got old and died and a young gun is taking it's time replacing.lol

 

There are some nasty records for the month though. 101 in 1980 and the 50's had some big heat. I'm not implying that it isn't easy to roast in Sept. Every day of the month is plenty capable of 90+. If it happens this year I will be sad.  

I delivered this message to the Bermuda ridge awhile back and so far its been knowing its place:

 

post-51-0-48924300-1407512363_thumb.jpg

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

Yea wxusaf, it's been crazy since January. Even going back to late Nov it was showing it's face. We've had a break in May/June but it totally reasserted itself. 

 

IMO- even "if" it breaks down, it won't likely be an anomalous long string of 90's in Sept. DCA's average max is 84 at the beginning and 74 at the end. Zonal in Sept is nice. AOA but low humidity. We haven't ridged out in a long time now. I think the multi year se ridge we had recently got old and died and a young gun is taking it's time replacing.lol

 

There are some nasty records for the month though. 101 in 1980 and the 50's had some big heat. I'm not implying that it isn't easy to roast in Sept. Every day of the month is plenty capable of 90+. If it happens this year I will be sad.  

CFS has been holding on to a warm September as well, although today's map looked better. I definitely hope we don't go AOA for September.

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

Nice post. FWIW, Joe Bastardi agrees with your outlook.

 

Also, did you happen to see the 00z GFS 2m temps for mid-August? It shows upper-20s in the mountains lol.

 

Give it two weeks or so, and then Joe Bastardi will be calling for a cold September.

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AlaskaETC

AlaskaETC

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't mind a warm September as long as we get some cold shots, with maybe a few first 40s.

 

Back to obs: The low last night wasn't too impressive, coming in at 60.5.

 

With the way the EPAC and WPAC have been this season with Typhoon activity, I think we should see more cool shots in September.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted

forecast up to late last night was 77F cloudy with showers today. forecast now is mostly sunny and low 80s. what a maddening place to live.

The forecast the last couple days has been for mostly sunny all weekend in my area.

I could go for some rain, but mostly sunny and dry low 80s is fantastic for early August.

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