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August 2014 Obs and Discussion


H2O

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

FLASH FLOOD WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

450 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014  

   

..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED THE  

 

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...  

 

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT  

 

* AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED  

VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RADAR  

ESTIMATES THAT 4 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS  

NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE  

RAINFALL CURRENTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT AT LEAST  

PART OF THE COUNTY BEFORE 6 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP  

TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING  

ALREADY ONGOING.  

 

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE  

ARNOLD...CROFTON...GIBSON ISLAND...GREEN HAVEN...LAKE SHORE...  

MILLERSVILLE...ODENTON...PAROLE...PASADENA...SEVERNA PARK...SOUTH  

GATE...BODKIN POINT...FORT SMALLWOOD STATE PARK...PINEHURST...  

RIVIERA BEACH AND SILLERY BAY.

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Not the most typical pattern for a huge rainer.. though I think the globals actually sort of hinted at it, esp the Euro, for a few days. Not quite right on specific location but it kept spitting out some big 6-12 hr totals in the area today. The GFS was also pretty consistent in having precip around most of the day though considerably lighter.  I do wonder what role that little mesolow JT pointed out might have played. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  FLASH FLOOD WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  450 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014     ..FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR EXTREME NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS EXTENDED THE    * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...    NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...    * UNTIL 815 PM EDT    * AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED    VERY HEAVY RAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. RADAR             ESTIMATES THAT 4 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS       NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE         RAINFALL CURRENTLY...ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN WILL AFFECT AT LEAST         PART OF THE COUNTY BEFORE 6 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP      TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING            ALREADY ONGOING.    * SOME LOCATIONS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE    ARNOLD...CROFTON...GIBSON ISLAND...GREEN HAVEN...LAKE SHORE...    MILLERSVILLE...ODENTON...PAROLE...PASADENA...SEVERNA PARK...SOUTH    GATE...BODKIN POINT...FORT SMALLWOOD STATE PARK...PINEHURST...    RIVIERA BEACH AND SILLERY BAY.

man, LWX does this same thing near the end of snow storms claiming another burst when it's already passed

http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php

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I remember adding in heavy rain mention for Sat forecast because of Euro

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/09/d-c-area-forecast-rain-threats-minor-through-the-weekend-but-staying-sticky/

 

And yday I did mention flash flood risk when there wasn't really much talk of it, though the WPC forecast was perhaps a hint

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/11/pm-update-periods-of-rain-tonight-and-tomorrow-severe-weather-late-tuesday/

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One other idea that came into my head today is a way to rate events like NESIS. Yes, a #2 all time is very impressive but it does seem we pull a day like this off pretty much every year around here somewhere.  I suppose a simple combination/avg of totals across an area would approximate the idea but not sure it's a valid way of doing it. 

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I remember adding in heavy rain mention for Sat forecast because of Euro

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/09/d-c-area-forecast-rain-threats-minor-through-the-weekend-but-staying-sticky/

 

And yday I did mention flash flood risk when there wasn't really much talk of it, though the WPC forecast was perhaps a hint

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/11/pm-update-periods-of-rain-tonight-and-tomorrow-severe-weather-late-tuesday/

 

18z NAM yesterday had 2.64" for BWI, so that's something.  Of course, 12z this morning had 0.49", so...

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One other idea that came into my head today is a way to rate events like NESIS. Yes, a #2 all time is very impressive but it does seem we pull a day like this off pretty much every year around here somewhere.  I suppose a simple combination/avg of totals across an area would approximate the idea but not sure it's a valid way of doing it. 

 

Yeah, it really only goes in the historical record if it hits one of the airports.  Otherwise it is a total IMBY thing.

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One other idea that came into my head today is a way to rate events like NESIS. Yes, a #2 all time is very impressive but it does seem we pull a day like this off pretty much every year around here somewhere.  I suppose a simple combination/avg of totals across an area would approximate the idea but not sure it's a valid way of doing it. 

yeah, very localized

any computer to nail this would have been pure luck

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This summer has been nice weather wise but not nice health wise. After several days on allergy medication thinking it was allergies causing my headaches, I can say they are not brought on by allergies. These pressure changes have been hard this year. Killer headache yet again and nothing to help.

I woke up with a monster headache too. Doesn't seem to matter how much I drug it, either

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You did not get 12" in a day. Old man and his fish stories.

GetMap.aspx.gif

I bought the gauge after that!

Seriously though...I used the best method I could - a uniform water glass on a flat table on my deck - and I measured 8" in the big downpour in the afternoon/evening. That was added to what I thought I saw as 4" in the morning based on radar estimates.

Either way, it was a sh*t ton of rain in one day.

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This summer has been nice weather wise but not nice health wise. After several days on allergy medication thinking it was allergies causing my headaches, I can say they are not brought on by allergies. These pressure changes have been hard this year. Killer headache yet again and nothing to help.

glad to know, myself, wife, and some co workers are going through the same thing. seems like major allergies because my eye sight will get wacky. waking up and going through the day with headaches has almost become normal. I have also put it on pressure changes the only thing I can think of, I know I didn't have the headache issue until last September my head would hurt so bad it my teeth would hurt. maybe the headaches are predicting cold and snow for this winter?

a glass of wine will help now. and Advil and water in the morning :)

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