Abrupt Climate Change in our Future? New Paper reveals Synchronization of Transport Oscillations forced rapid Deglaciation

[StudentOfClimatology]

A fantastic read into the possible mechanisms behind abrupt climate change in the past, and what may be in store for our future. It also reveals, indirectly, that linear projections of climate change may be misguided:

http://m.phys.org/news/2014-07-synchronization-north-atlantic-pacific-abrupt.html

The study found that synchronization of the two regional systems began as climate was gradually warming. After synchronization, the researchers detected wild variability that amplified the changes and accelerated into an abrupt warming event of several degrees within a few decades.

"As the systems become synchronized, they organized and reinforced each other, eventually running away like screeching feedback from a microphone," said Alan Mix, a professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences and co-author on the paper. "Suddenly you had the combined effects of two major oceans forcing the climate instead of one at a time."

"The example that we uncovered is a cause for concern because many people assume that climate change will be gradual and predictable," Mix added. "But the study shows that there can be vast climate swings over a period of decades to centuries. If such a thing happened in the future, it could challenges society's ability to cope."

[chrisf97212]

A fantastic read into the possible mechanisms behind abrupt climate change in the past, and what may be in store for our future. It also reveals, indirectly, that linear projections of climate change may be misguided:

http://m.phys.org/news/2014-07-synchronization-north-atlantic-pacific-abrupt.html

 

 

I look forward to the peer review.  Locally, the one Oregon State researcher has a reputation for sensationalizing results.  While the theory is sound, I don't think they used enough sample points or accounted for possible volcanic activity.  Maybe the issues are addressed more fully, but I didn't see it in the link.

[StudentOfClimatology]

I look forward to the peer review. Locally, the one Oregon State researcher has a reputation for sensationalizing results. While the theory is sound, I don't think they used enough sample points or accounted for possible volcanic activity. Maybe the issues are addressed more fully, but I didn't see it in the link.

Thanks.

I haven't seen any claims like that outside the blogosphere, if they're from within the scientific community, maybe you could link them here?

As for volcanic activity, that should lead to cooling, not warming, but if you're interested in the data they used:

In this study, the researchers examined sediment cores taken from the Gulf of Alaska in 2004 during an expedition led by Mix. The mountains in the region are eroding so fast that sedimentation rates are "phenomenal," he said. "Essentially, this rapid sedimentation provides a 'climate tape recorder' at extremely high fidelity."

Praetorius then led an effort to look at past temperatures by slicing the sediment into decade-long chunks spanning more than 8,000 years – a laborious process that took years to complete. She measured ratios of oxygen isotopes trapped in fossil shells of marine plankton called foraminifera. The isotopes record the temperature and salinity of the water where the plankton lived.

When the foraminifera died, their shells sank to the sea floor and were preserved in the sediments that eventually were recovered by Mix's coring team.

The researchers then compared their findings with data from the North Greenland Ice Core Project to see if the two distinct high-latitude climate systems were in any way related.

Most of the time, the two regions vary independently, but about 15,500 years ago, temperature changes started to line up and then both regions warmed abruptly by about five degrees C within just a few decades. Praetorius noted that much warmer ocean waters likely would have a profound effect on northern-hemisphere climates by melting sea ice, warming the atmosphere and destabilizing ice sheets over Canada and Europe.

A tipping point for climate change "may be crossed in an instant," Mix noted, "but the actual response of the Earth's system may play out over centuries or even thousands of years during a period of dynamic adjustment."

[chrisf97212]

Thanks.

I haven't seen any claims like that outside the blogosphere, if they're from within the scientific community, maybe you could link them here?

As for volcanic activity, that should lead to cooling, not warming, but if you're interested in the data they used:

 

 

Regarding volcanic and since Alaska is active in that regard, I was concerned pyroclastic flows or similar massive melt offs would have contaminated the southeast Alaskan location from which the cores were taken.  This of course assumes any eruptions weren't massive enough to trigger a cooling period.  The entire North American Pacific coast from the Columbia River north should have large enough sedimentation to provide numerous sample sites to corroborate the findings. 

 

I have no problem per se believing that climate change takes place in steps, but my gut feel is that the tropics would be a bigger driver.

[StudentOfClimatology]

Regarding volcanic and since Alaska is active in that regard, I was concerned pyroclastic flows or similar massive melt offs would have contaminated the southeast Alaskan location from which the cores were taken. This of course assumes any eruptions weren't massive enough to trigger a cooling period. The entire North American Pacific coast from the Columbia River north should have large enough sedimentation to provide numerous sample sites to corroborate the findings.

I have no problem per se believing that climate change takes place in steps, but my gut feel is that the tropics would be a bigger driver.

I agree. Obviously something caused these resonances to link up and amplify..they didn't just wake up one day and decide to end the glacial.

The tropics, or tropical-polar relationship is a very chaotic and unpredictable phenomenon, even on a decade-to-decade basis which requires a huge array of forcings and variables to be accounted for. So maybe a tropical perturbation of some sort was to blame. After all, it is theorized that the equator may have actually been warmer than it is today during the last ice age.