Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Models all over the place with this event. Looking at national radar just now, hard to imagine we all don't get something, whether it's .2 or 2 inches remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Models all over the place with this event. Looking at national radar just now, hard to imagine we all don't get something, whether it's .2 or 2 inches remains to be seen. It's likely to be a nowcasting situation. If we see the radar trying to shift east with the rain, the GFS is more likely to be right. If it stays heavy and curls west, we could be in for a soaking. Models seem to agree that what we see should be done by early afternoon tomorrow. Maybe we can break out a little sun for the afternoon, though that would likely destabilize the atmosphere and make for more storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It's likely to be a nowcasting situation. If we see the radar trying to shift east with the rain, the GFS is more likely to be right. If it stays heavy and curls west, we could be in for a soaking. Models seem to agree that what we see should be done by early afternoon tomorrow. Maybe we can break out a little sun for the afternoon, though that would likely destabilize the atmosphere and make for more storms later. I could see Saturday afternoon/evening being one of those nasty sheet drizzle type setups with plenty of low level moisture around and not that much lift once the best dynamics go to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 what is sunday looking like on these runs-is there a second batch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Rain into DC/Balt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 what is sunday looking like on these runs-is there a second batch? Light/scattered showers at most on NAM/GFS for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Storms are firing on radar now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Not trying to be the doom and gloomer here with this one but the 12z NAM matches up pretty well with the current radar. Our heavy rain for tommorrow is currently located over coastal NC. They are really getting dumped on down there. The 12z GFS has barely anything falling there today. The GFS is putting all of the focus on the second wave which is further south. I wonder if we're getting some convective feedback issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 GGEM is well west of previous runs. Enough to give the city a glancing blow. Almost 1"+. Had a bad feeling this was going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 GGEM is well west of previous runs. Enough to give the city a glancing blow. Almost 1"+. Had a bad feeling this was going to happen. Ahh well. I had some hope this morning we could salvage something, but that looks FUBAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Ahh well. I had some hope this morning we could salvage something, but that looks FUBAR. The 12z GGEM dumps a bullseye of 14" on coastal NC this weekend with a large area of 7"+. Pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The 12z GGEM dumps a bullseye of 14" on coastal NC this weekend with a large area of 7"+. Pretty amazing. Insane. Obviously overdone, but shows the available moisture with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Anyone on the north shore of LI....any thunder with that cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Insane. Obviously overdone, but shows the available moisture with this system. If there's another situation like a couple of weeks ago where storms can train over one place, there could be some 4"+ amounts. The front has a direct tap straight to the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Insane. Obviously overdone, but shows the available moisture with this system. Apparently some places there are already over 3" per southeast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like a stormy afternoon coming up. There are already storms popping in parts of NYC/NJ and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like a stormy afternoon coming up. There are already storms popping in parts of NYC/NJ and LI. HRRR doing a good job so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like a stormy afternoon coming up. There are already storms popping in parts of NYC/NJ and LI. Some serious slow moving drenchers showing up. Small cells, but flooding is a concern for those underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 109 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD ADVISORY FOR... SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY... ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 108 PM EDT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. * LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CAUSE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY HAMPER GETAWAY ROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The Euro is coming in NW and more robust. Looks like 00z was just a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So that settles it then. The Euro was origionally too far west then over corrected east last. Looks like a glancing blow for western sections. That was about a 50-75 mile shift NW. One more nudge west and we get a lot more. This solution is very close to the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Yeah. Euro is a wet run for the area. Especially NYC/SWCT and a bullseye on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Yeah. Euro is a very wet run for the area. Especially NYC/SWCT and a bullseye on LI. It still mostly clears out by early afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Yeah. Euro is a very wet run for the area. Especially NYC/SWCT and a bullseye on LI. Never bet against the Euro ensembles. Amazing consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 It still mostly clears out by early afternoon? Less than 0.10" falls after 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Euro wetter for Sunday now too. It's a very close call as a 50 mile shift west is all that's needed to keep the fire hose onshore. 50 miles east and we end up fairly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Do we need a seperate thread for observations? Thunder here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 12z Euro totals KLGA - 1.90" KNYC - 1.70" KEWR - 1.50" KHPN - 1.50" KMMU - 0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Well even if i miss out on storms today, looks like ill be getting jackpotted with the rains tommorow! EURO ensembles FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 12z Euro totals KLGA - 1.90" KNYC - 1.70" KEWR - 1.50" KHPN - 1.50" KMMU - 0.75" Is that both Sat and Sun or Sat only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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