Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

August 2014


Rtd208

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Models all over the place with this event.  Looking at national radar just now, hard to imagine we all don't get something, whether it's .2 or 2 inches remains to be seen.

It's likely to be a nowcasting situation. If we see the radar trying to shift east with the rain, the GFS is more likely to be right. If it stays heavy and curls west, we could be in for a soaking. Models seem to agree that what we see should be done by early afternoon tomorrow. Maybe we can break out a little sun for the afternoon, though that would likely destabilize the atmosphere and make for more storms later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's likely to be a nowcasting situation. If we see the radar trying to shift east with the rain, the GFS is more likely to be right. If it stays heavy and curls west, we could be in for a soaking. Models seem to agree that what we see should be done by early afternoon tomorrow. Maybe we can break out a little sun for the afternoon, though that would likely destabilize the atmosphere and make for more storms later.

I could see Saturday afternoon/evening being one of those nasty sheet drizzle type setups with plenty of low level moisture around and not that much lift once the best dynamics go to the north.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not trying to be the doom and gloomer here with this one but the 12z NAM matches up pretty well with the current radar. Our heavy rain for tommorrow is currently located over coastal NC. They are really getting dumped on down there. The 12z GFS has barely anything falling there today. The GFS is putting all of the focus on the second wave which is further south. I wonder if we're getting some convective feedback issues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

109 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHEASTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...

BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

MONMOUTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

ATLANTIC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 108 PM EDT SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE

AFTERNOON.

* LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY IN STRONGER

THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CAUSE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND MAY HAMPER

GETAWAY ROADWAYS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...