MJO812 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Nothing big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Euro fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 That's what I thought would happen, should be just a Cloudy weekend for most of you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Euro fail The Euro did this with a storm last October-days and days of runs of 2 inches plus, then a big cutback to .35 and then nothing which was what verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like the 09z SREF is coming in wetter. Pretty big uptick in precip for tommorrow. Sometimes models over correct. We may have seen that yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like the 09z SREF is coming in wetter. Pretty big uptick in precip for tommorrow. Sometimes models over correct. We may have seen that yesterday. The SREF has been wrong 12 hours out before. I think we'll just have to watch the radar tomorrow to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like the 09z SREF is coming in wetter. Pretty big uptick in precip for tommorrow. Sometimes models over correct. We may have seen that yesterday. Valid point. 12z runs today will be telling-may just come down to a nowcast event for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Rain showers are currently developing down in the Delmarva and DC area. Regardless of how much rain we get, it's going to be damp and muggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The 06z NAM was still a soaker tomorrow. 12z coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 SREF only got a little wetter, it's not as wet as 21z was, but this might be somewhat based off 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Rain showers are currently developing down in the Delmarva and DC area. Regardless of how much rain we get, it's going to be damp and muggy. The high dews are already here that is for sure 79/72 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The 12z NAM looks worse for tomorrow so far. Heavy rain moving in around 7-8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Any ideas what the hell that small ball that appears over the Hudson Valley is and moves northeast? You'd think a smoke plume but surprising it would stay in that shape. http://wx.erau.edu/erau_sat/getImage-js.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Still tons of spread in the 09z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Can someone post the NAM QPF map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Can someone post the NAM QPF map? All I have on NCEP is out to 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 On the NAM most of the rain is done by noon, but there are a lot of showers around thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 On the NAM most of the rain is done by noon, but there are a lot of showers around thereafter.Yeah, 4k says it lightens up around 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Any ideas what the hell that small ball that appears over the Hudson Valley is and moves northeast? You'd think a smoke plume but surprising it would stay in that shape. http://wx.erau.edu/erau_sat/getImage-js.php I have no ideas for you but find it interesting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The HRRR has plenty of scattered showers and storms today. It brings the steady rain up here by 11PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The HRRR has plenty of scattered showers and storms today. It brings the steady rain up here by 11PM tonight. Those storms don't look like they'll happen IMO...the high clouds will probably inhibit the instability just enough, and the key time for initiation is the next 2 hours because after that most of the energy with the shortwave goes to the north....the HRRR already shows tons of development by 1530-1600Z and nothing has formed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Please come through gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Please come through gfs You make it so easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Those storms don't look like they'll happen IMO...the high clouds will probably inhibit the instability just enough, and the key time for initiation is the next 2 hours because after that most of the energy with the shortwave goes to the north....the HRRR already shows tons of development by 1530-1600Z and nothing has formed yet. IDK, I've been under full sun here since about 9AM. SPC meso shows decent SBCAPE already in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Regardless on whether or not we get storms this afternoon the latest HRRR has sped up the timing of the rain shield, now set to arrive between 8 and 9PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Regardless on whether or not we get storms this afternoon the latest HRRR has sped up the timing of the rain shield, now set to arrive between 8 and 9PM. Is the HRRR reliable in non convective situations? The rest of the models are quite dry today/tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 12z GFS is wetter for about everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The 12z GFS actually increased totals some, seem as if we're getting closer to a comprimise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Is the HRRR reliable in non convective situations? The rest of the models are quite dry today/tonight The HRRR and RAP both seem to think very light showers make it in here 02-05Z but its probably very very light if anything, 6-10 mile visibility type stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Is the HRRR reliable in non convective situations? The rest of the models are quite dry today/tonight I don't really know that answer. I would think it has an advantage over the globals given higher resolution and the fact that it's a very short term forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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