CoastalWx Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 the ens mean signaled it before the op and has been consistent for days I have money on the euro and its ensembles for that reason...it better work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 If anything the 15z SREF look further west. Very few east outliers. A few absolute flooding deluges. Looks also like the 18z NAM is holding serve. NAM is wet for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 the ens mean signaled it before the op and has been consistent for days The ensemble mean is ~1.50" at KEWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 UKMET looks east, I don't think Euro/NAM will hold much longer, WPC is also dryish. 18z NAM looks like it isn't budging much Yes, let's hump the awful GFS and GGEM when the Euro is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The NAM is very close to 3" for NYC. Hard to tell exactly since I can only zoom in so far. Another wave of low pressure blows up Sunday and rides north, intensifying as it does so. Deluge for SNE overnight into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The NAM is very close to 3" for NYC. Hard to tell exactly since I can only zoom in so far. Another wave of low pressure blows up Sunday and rides north, intensifying as it does so. Deluge for SNE overnight into Monday. That's including Sunday night. NAM cut back for Saturday. Generally .75"-1" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's including Sunday night. NAM cut back for Saturday. Generally .75"-1" amounts. Really? The 12z NAM was less than 0.50" for NYC on Saturday. 18z is nearly double those totals for Saturday alone. 18z below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 18z NAM totals through Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 When the Euro and ensembles are this locked into a solution, it's impossible to discount it. one thing you can pretty much count on in meteorology. when the EURO OP/Ensembles lock in tandem its as close to a sure thing as you can get. that said looks like fishing will not happen sunday for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 one thing you can pretty much count on in meteorology. when the EURO OP/Ensembles lock in tandem its as close to a sure thing as you can get. that said looks like fishing will not happen sunday for me Its out of here by Saturday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Its out of here by Saturday evening fishing will happen for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I wouldn't want to bet the farm that Sunday is dry, Certainly not all guidance is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I wouldn't want to bet the farm that Sunday is dry, Certainly not all guidance is. I'm not betting either day is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 18z GFS is wetter, especially for DE, SNJ, LI, and SNE. DC to Boston is wetter, not by much. NYC gets ~ 0.35-0.40". DC gets about 0.20" while Ocean City MD gets about 2.70". So yeah, need to watch this carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Looks like the SREF is even wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So gfs..has 0.35"-0.40". while euro has 1.50"+ and Nam has 3.00"..lol Then you have Upton with lower 80s for Saturday and the EURO upper 60s. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So gfs..has 0.35"-0.40". while euro has 1.50"+ and Nam has 3.00"..lol Then you have Upton with lower 80s for Saturday and the EURO upper 60s. Crazy The Nam so far is dry through Saturday evening..<.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The 00z NAM focused on Sunday. Mostly west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Some of these are just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 Happy August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z GFS is east again. Barely anything for NJ and only .2-.3" for NYC for the whole weekend. Even LI is only .50"-.75" Euro continues to be an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z GFS is east again. Barely anything for NJ and only .2-.3" for NYC for the whole weekend. Even LI is only .50"-.75" Euro continues to be an outlier. 0z Rgem continues to also be east and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z GFS is east again. Barely anything for NJ and only .2-.3" for NYC for the whole weekend. Even LI is only .50"-.75" Euro continues to be an outlier. South and east. What a drastic difference from the Euro and it's ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 What did the Euro have? Looks like Euro vs everything else at this point-could end up being a fairly dry weekend esp points west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z euro caved and is now well east as well. Little rain Saturday morning and not much more after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z euro caved and is now well east as well. Little rain Saturday morning and not much more after. So much for the almightly Euro. Hoping it goes even further east-maybe we can salvage some sun. Guessing it's pretty humid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 0z euro caved and is now well east as well. Little rain Saturday morning and not much more after. The ensemble mean at KLGA was still nearly an inch, more than double the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 The ensemble mean at KLGA was still nearly an inch, more than double the op. Given all the other modeling all moving away from steady rains, it's likely not correct in that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 That's a pretty dramatic cutback by the ECMWF. Only 0.37" of rain now for NYC for this weekend/early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 1, 2014 Share Posted August 1, 2014 So much for the almightly Euro. Hoping it goes even further east-maybe we can salvage some sun. Guessing it's pretty humid though. I doubt there will be much sun-there's still plenty of moisture with the SW flow and plenty of humidity aloft and at the surface. But hopefully the washout fears are becoming less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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