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August 2014


Rtd208

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Clouds and storms pushing into OHIO - likely to PA by midnight then 8 - 12 hours to reach here.  Id expect clouds by morning or no later than noon with storms and rain between noon and evening.  Monday will likely be the best day for summer-type (dry) weather.

So wait, I thought tomorrow would be better than Sunday? Boy the timing of this system keeps changing.

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Weekend going down the toilet after the clouds yesterday and now cloudy wet day ahead today. What a stretch of weather we had leading upto this weekend.  Clouds already to the coast with rain and storms into CPA.  I still think Monday will be the best day of the weekend and for those who can extend Tuesday as well.

 

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Upto 87 with partly cloudy skies the last few hours.  Pleasantly surprised with the clearing past 1030AM.

 

Looks like partly/mostly cloudy the next few hours before it fully clouds over and storms/showrs arrive.  And it looks scattered variety. 

 

 

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Slight risk again for much of NJ and NYC:

a4ynpg.jpg

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW RATHER STRONG HEATING OCCURRING IN A
   CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN VA TO THE NYC AREA.  PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
   INCHES AND 30-40 KNOT WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   RISK OF A FEW INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
   GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES.

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August is going out on the hot side but it will end up averaging 74.5... more than a degree below the 30 year average 75.8 and average for the long term since 1870...

Gonna finish with about a -2.4 departure here...good radiational cooling on many nights for surburban stations so higher departures. Also made it to 90 here today.
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1zqaq35.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN PA...SERN NY...SWRN   CT...NJ...MD...NRN DE...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE    VALID 311730Z - 312000Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT   SUMMARY...THE DC-BALTIMORE-PHILADELPHIA-NYC CORRIDOR AND SURROUNDING   AREAS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO   LOCALLY SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY   LIKELY...THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER   THIS AFTERNOON.   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF INSOLATION S OF A PERSISTENT MULTI-LAYERED   CLOUD BAND STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND IS   ENCOURAGING CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS   THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- E.G.   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S   TO AROUND 90F IS SUPPORTING SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J/KG.   WITH NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION REMAINING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY   INDICATES SW/NE-ORIENTED CLOUD STREETS EVOLVING FROM THE   INSOLATION-HEATED MOIST AIR MASS...FROM WHICH ISOLATED CONVECTION IS   BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM IN SERN PA AND ADJACENT MD.   A FURTHER UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING   THE AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND PBL CIRCULATIONS ARE   BOLSTERED...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN VERY   WEAK ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...A   FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND   PERHAPS A COUPLE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE. THE   PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF 1-3-KM SWLYS/WSWLYS SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS AND   INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM   TRANSPORT MAY SUPPORT STRONG SFC WIND GUSTS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY   WATER-LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75 INCHES PER GPS DATA.   DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR   AND MOISTURE EXIST FOR THE RISK OF A WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER...POOR   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY 12Z RAOBS CAST DOUBT ON THE OVERALL   POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST STORMS AND RELATED SVR POTENTIAL. THIS IS   PARTICULARLY THE CASE IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER   ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR.   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014
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90 here now as well, gives me 9 on the season.

 

If we can somehow manage more sun tomorrow and get to 90 we'll have a little mini late heatwave as Tuesday still looks like the hottest day.  Darn clouds yesterday ruined an otherwise great day.  But looking ahead still looks like 90 tues then next shot Friday (9/5).

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2014

PHL:  16 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: 3; Jul: 11 ; Aug:  3; Sep: 0; Oct:0   )

EWR: 11 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 0; Oct: 0 )

TTN:  8 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2; Jul: 6 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 0; Oct: 0 )

LGA: 3 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)

ACY: 6 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 0; Oct: 0 )

TEB: 19 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 9 ; Aug: 3; Sep: 0; Oct: 0 )

NYC: 5 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: 2; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)

JFK:  1 (April: 0; May: 0; June: 1 ; Jul: 0 ; Aug: 0 ; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)

ISP: 0 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 0 ; Jul: 0 ; Aug: 0; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)

New Bnswk: 12 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 2; Sep: 0; Oct: 0)

 

89 degree days

 

PHL: 4

NYC: 4

EWR: 2

ISP: 1

TEB: 7

ACY:2

LGA: 3

New Brunswick: 1

TTN: 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2013

PHL:  20 (April: 0; May:3 ; June: 4; Jul: 12 ; Aug:  ; Sep: 1; Oct:   )

EWR: 25  (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 3; Sep: 1; Oct: )

TTN:  16 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 10 ; Aug: ; Sep: 1; Oct: )

LGA: 21 (April: 0; May:2 ; June:2 ; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 1; Oct:)

ACY: 17 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 4 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: ; Sep: 1; Oct: )

TEB: 28 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: 1; Oct: 1 )

NYC: 17  (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 1; Sep: 1; Oct: )

JFK:  9 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul:7 ; Aug: ; Sep: ; Oct: )

ISP: 10 (April: 0; May: ; June:2 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: ; Sep:; Oct:)

New Bnswk: 23  (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 3; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 3 ; Sep: 1; Oct:)

 

89 degree days

 

PHL: 7

EWR: 7

TTN: 1

New Brunswick: 4

LGA:  7

ACY: 6

TEB: 6

NYC: 2

JFK: 1

ISP: 1

 

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2012

PHL: 39 (April: 0; May 2: ; June:7 ; Jul: 21; Aug: 8 ; Sep: 1 )

EWR: 33 (April: 0; May: 2 ; June:6 ; Jul: 16 ; Aug: 7; Sep: 2 )

TTN: 29 (April: 1; May: 2 ; June: 7 ; Jul: 15 ; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )

LGA: 28 (April: 0; May: 2; June:6 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 6; Sep: )

ACY: 26 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 6 ; Jul: 14 ; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )

TEB: 36 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 6 ; Jul: 17 ; Aug: 9; Sep:2 )

NYC: 19 (April: 0; May: ; June:5 ; Jul: 10; Aug: 3; Sep:1 )

JFK: 16 ((April: 0; May: ; June: 5 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep:1 )

ISP: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 5 ; Jul: 6; Aug: ; Sep: )

New Bnswk: 35 (April: 1, May: 2, June: 6, July: 17; Aug: 8;Sep:1; )

89 degree days

PHL: 7

EWR: 6

TTN: 4

LGA: 5

ACY: 4

TEB: 4

NYC: 8

JFK: 3

ISP: 3

NBNSWK: 6

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

2011

PHL: 33 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 5 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug: 4 ; Sep: )

EWR: 31 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 4; Jul: 22; Aug: 4; Sep: )

TTN: 26 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 3; Jul: 17 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )

LGA: 18 (April: 0; May:0 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 13; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )

ACY: 32 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 6 ; Jul: 21 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )

TEB: 28 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 4 ; Jul: 18 ; Aug: 4; Sep: )

NYC: 20 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 14; Aug: 3; Sep: )

JFK: 13 (April: 0; May: 0 ; June: 1 ; Jul: 10; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )

89 degree days

PHL: 2

EWR: 2

TTN: 8

LGA: 6

ACY: 5

TEB: 8

NYC: 3

JFK: 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2010

PHL: 55 (April: 0; May: 2; June: 15; Jul: 19; Aug: 12; Sep: 7) *4 89

EWR: 54 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 13; Jul: 21; Aug: 11; Sep: 6) *3 89

TTN: 52 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 10; Jul: 21; Aug: 13; Sep: 5) *5 89

LGA: 48 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 12; Jul: 18; Aug: 11; Sep: 4) *3 89

ACY: 46 (April: 1; May: 1; June: 14; Jul: 14; Aug: 11; Sep: 5)

TEB: 41 (April: 1; May: 2; June: 10; Jul: 16; Aug: 8; Sep: 4) *4 89

NYC: 37 (April: 1; May: 1; June: 4; Jul: 16; Aug: 12; Sep: 3) *12 89 / 3 88

JFK: 31 (April: 0; May: 1; June: 8; Jul: 12; Aug: 7; Sep: 2) *3 89

 

 

Iso - seems im more in-line with New Brunswick.  You must have had your share of 88/89's last year if I remember right

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