IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The GGEM also has 93L as a full blown hurricane approaching the Bahamas on Monday, which is obviously wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'll be impressed when the Euro shifts east. Agree-me too, but with the Canadian going east, that's a red flag. One thing for the Goofus to give us that solution but with support from the Canadian, I'm going to guess the Euro is east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Agree-me too, but with the Canadian going east, that's a red flag. One thing for the Goofus to give us that solution but with support from the Canadian, I'm going to guess the Euro is east This is the second run the Canadian had most of the heavy rain offshore. The Euro disagrees but it might be a reason for optimism if the Euro shifts east also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 This is the second run the Canadian had most of the heavy rain offshore. The Euro disagrees but it might be a reason for optimism if the Euro shifts east also. The 12z GGEM was east yesterday too. It hasn't been as far west as the Euro for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Perhaps I've just been following this more closely than the rest of the bunch as I have outdoor plans Saturday evening. Today's 12zs runs so far haven't really shifted much. The GGEM continues to be east, the NAM is over amped and too far west, the GFS is weak and OTS. The Euro hasn't shifted at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's why I'm always hesitant to use the word washout in the summer until a day or two before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's why I'm always hesitant to use the word washout in the summer until a day or two before. Very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 That's why I'm always hesitant to use the word washout in the summer until a day or two before. This doesn't seem like your typical summer time convective setup. Pretty sure it will be a good dumping somewhere, but could be offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm always hesitant to take any model run seriously when it's incorrectly developing a tropical system. I'm sure that it has some upstream effect on the strength and location of the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I'm always hesitant to take any model run seriously when it's incorrectly developing a tropical system. I'm sure that it has some upstream effect on the strength and location of the WAR. If the Canadian is developing the tropical system too much, it would likely result in a stronger WAR and further west rain axis, not east, as tropical systems typically pump ridges when recurving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 If the Canadian is developing the tropical system too much, it would likely result in a stronger WAR and further west rain axis, not east, as tropical systems typically pump ridges when recurving. It does look like it tries to pump the ridge back west once it gets north of the Bahamas but by that time the front is already too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I doubt the Euro is going to come east, it's already shifting the WAR a tick west through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 No changes on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Well over an inch areawide, probably over 1.50" for most, just eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Euro is probably the wettest run yet for NYC and LI. Rain is over by 2pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Should still clear out by mid afternoon. Comes in around 2AM and out by around 2-3PM taking the Euro verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Euro is probably the wettest run yet for NYC and LI. Rain is over by 2pm Saturday. It's the wettest run yet for everyone. Let's see now what it does for Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Wow. Surprised it wasnt east. How does Sunday/Mon look on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For someone trying to salvage a beach day on Saturday, if it is east like the GGEM and GFS are showing is it still a cloudy, cool day or could it actually wind up being nice enough to make a trip down the shore? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 For someone trying to salvage a beach day on Saturday, if it is east like the GGEM and GFS are showing is it still a cloudy, cool day or could it actually wind up being nice enough to make a trip down the shore? Thanks in advance. Looks cloudy with showers still possible. GGEM tops temperatures out in the low 70's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Most locals top out around 65 on Saturday on the Euro. I think this notion that it's going to clear out early and all of sudden turn into this beautiful beach day is farfetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Most locals top out around 65 on Saturday on the Euro. I think this notion that it's going to clear out early and all of sudden turn into this beautiful beach day is farfetched. The SW flow means plenty of clouds and moisture. The only way we end up with a nice afternoon is if the front clears east, which isn't happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Blah, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I said that yesterday-it's not a beach/pool day regardless-best case-variably cloudy breezy and cool, mid 70's...worse case-stratiform rain and 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I said that yesterday-it's not a beach/pool day regardless-best case-variably cloudy breezy and cool, mid 70's...worse case-stratiform rain and 65 The majority of the time will probably be dry and cloudy. Flash point looks to be from 2AM to 2PM Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean matches the op to a "T". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 UKMET looks east, I don't think Euro/NAM will hold much longer, WPC is also dryish. 18z NAM looks like it isn't budging much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 the euro ens mean is the wettest it's been so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 UKMET looks east, I don't think Euro/NAM will hold much longer, WPC is also dryish. 18z NAM looks like it isn't budging much When the Euro and ensembles are this locked into a solution, it's impossible to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 the ens mean signaled it before the op and has been consistent for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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