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Rtd208

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this is probably why. move the ASOS away from that tree canopy and it would be similar to/beat ewr much more consistently

 

Between the dryness of late and the supposed cleanup - the park will be more in line with EWR Id guess the next week.  Might see some warmer spots touch 90 tomorrow, wed and perhaps Thu pending on front.

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Ironically September is probably the nicest month of the year to be at the Jersey Shore. No crowds, and still sufficient weather for beach/pool on the majority of days. I've always thought that the September-October period was probably the most sunny/pleasant period of the year in our area.

 

Shhh...Don't tell the secret  ^_^

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Ironically September is probably the nicest month of the year to be at the Jersey Shore. No crowds, and still sufficient weather for beach/pool on the majority of days. I've always thought that the September-October period was probably the most sunny/pleasant period of the year in our area.

I actually agree because I often go down the shore mid to even late September and the weather is perfect without the noisy crowds and traffic. As long as it's in the 70s to low 80s with lower humidity then it's great but 89-90+ with 60+ dews after the Labor Day weekend is way too high.

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they are always conservative this far out.  If the Euro holds, they will slowly up the temps as it gets closer. 

 

They are following the GFS Mean/MEX numbers. The 0z Euro still 90F+ away from the shore, with the slower passage of the cold front Sunday night/Monday. We'll see if this trend continue:

 

post-187-0-12914200-1409055284_thumb.png

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850 mb temps of +18c on both models easily supports 90's for us

 

I never said anything about +18 850 temps not supporting 90s.

I want 90s.

 

I just believe WxBell maps are overdone with 2M temps as they are overdone with snow in the winter and low temps.

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These warmer temperatures coincide with the PNA finally dipping into negative territory.

 

attachicon.gifpna.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

Agreed. Whether NYC records a heat wave or not, we'll see, but most of the area should see at least a couple days, potentially more, of 90F in the next 7 days.

 

We're about to see a simultaneous PNA plummet and EPO spike, indicative of the mean trough retrogression into the Western US that I noted earlier. This will likely be the most anomalous PNA dip of the summer season, further supporting the Eastern ridge notion.

 

ecmwf_pna_bias.png

 

 

 

 

ecmwf_epo_bias.png

 

 

154j76p.png

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As of the 1050 update, NYC's 81F is ahead of its pace from yesterday at this time by 2 degrees (79F). Given this, NYC has a good chance for 90F today.

I think the clouds popping along the sea breeze boundary may prevent the run at 90F today, not to mention the sea breeze itself.  Could be close though.

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I think the clouds popping along the sea breeze boundary may prevent the run at 90F today, not to mention the sea breeze itself.  Could be close though.

 

 

87 at the park now, still 2F ahead of their pace yesterday. Will be close. Either a 89 or 90 finish most likely.

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