Sundog Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I agree that Central Park is more representative of suburban/rural nearby areas. Mentioned in a post awhile back that NYC's 38 90 degree days in 2010 was almost exactly in line with what I recorded. The airport stations of EWR, LGA and JFK represent that vast majority of New Yorkers due to their urban residences. Those of us in more suburban areas will obviously fall short of the extreme highs, and tend to cool off more at night as well. I think the nights is where those close to or just inside the city really diverge when compared to stations like LGA. I can be up to 10 degrees colder than LGA on good radiational cooling nights and I'm only 3 to 4 miles east of the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 But the majority of NYC residents live in the cement, not the trees. So places like LGA are representative of the area. LGA came first, then the weather station. So the tarmac was always there in some fashion. As Queens built up around the airport the temps went up (this is not including general temp rises from global warming.) NEextreme is saying the station is improperly placed, but technically it isn't because it has 100 feet of clearing and grass all around. And it still represents the majority of the people. For me where LGA fails is at night. Because I live in a almost suburban like part of Queens my lows are practically always lower than LGA's. But for most of the city LGA is just fine. So it's representative of the majority of the people and it's properly sited as per the NWS. Central Park doesn't meet either one of those conditions. I had a weather station on my roof when I lived in Brooklyn...my back and front yards were small and the house was attached on one side...I kept records and they weren't far off other sites around the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 whether or not knyc is representative of parts of the metro area is irrelevant. my argument is that it's sited improperly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I think that the reason that NYC and LGA have been close this year is due to the strong southerly flow during our warm days where the sea breeze pushed all the way to LGA. If there was more of a SW to W flow like recent summers, LGA then would be warmer. Good theory but not proven. I believe the ASOS site at Central Park has been tweaked this year. Even on SW to W flow days the 2 sites have had similar temps. When in the past, Central Park would lag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 whether or not knyc is representative of parts of the metro area is irrelevant. my argument is that it's sited improperly Where in the rules does it say that a site should not be in a wooded and shaded area? Please post. No one is arguing that it's an improper site to represent the cement factory of Manhattan. It most definitely is. But IMO, it represents the majority of Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx very well. Lots of the NYC boroughs are suburban with tree lined blocks and these areas are represented well by Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I think the nights is where those close to or just inside the city really diverge when compared to stations like LGA. I can be up to 10 degrees colder than LGA on good radiational cooling nights and I'm only 3 to 4 miles east of the airport. The radiational cooling aspect is because of the urbanization around LGA. Astoria, Jackson Heights and the areas surrounding LGA all have similar low temps at night, due to UHI. Your area of NE Queens is just far enough from these heat producing areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Where in the rules does it say that a site should not be in a wooded and shaded area? Please post. No one is arguing that it's an improper site to represent the cement factory of Manhattan. It most definitely is. But IMO, it represents the majority of Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx very well. Lots of the NYC boroughs are suburban with tree lined blocks and these areas are represented well by Central Park. I haven't seen the ASOS recently, so maybe it's changed, but according to that picture posted on the last page from 2013, it seems to break almost every part of the temperature siting guidelines: "A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.)." http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/standard.htm Judging by that photo, there are trees surrounding it and the air ventilation is far from ideal near the sensor. I don't understand why the ASOS isn't in the middle of Central Park w/ the open clearing. I guess people would complain about a weather station in the middle of the park? I'd say who cares, put it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Where in the rules does it say that a site should not be in a wooded and shaded area? Please post. No one is arguing that it's an improper site to represent the cement factory of Manhattan. It most definitely is. But IMO, it represents the majority of Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx very well. Lots of the NYC boroughs are suburban with tree lined blocks and these areas are represented well by Central Park. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/coop/standard.htm i mixed up parts of it but KNYC still fails all these requirements except for two Temperature sensor siting: The sensor should be mounted 5 feet +/- 1 foot above the ground. (fail) The ground over which the shelter [radiation] is located should be typical of the surrounding area. (pass) A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. (fail) Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow (fail) unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.) (fail). The sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface. (pass) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 i didn't read isotherm's post above... oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 I do agree that maybe the asos was tweaked or some tree trimming possibly because temps there seem more in line with other stations this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Central Park ASOS is in between a landmark and environment friendly area. I don't think they will move it or enough trimming will be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Looks like the chances of no 90 degree days in August at Newark and many other stations in the region are quite high now - anybody know when the last time we had no 90 degree days in August ? http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2014/8/17/MonthlyHistory.html http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Every year since 1950 has hit 90 at Newark. LGA only made it to 88 in 2008 and NYC had no August 90's in 1986, 1982, 1963, 1950 and earlier years. Coolest August highs at Newark since 1950: 91...2013 91...2008 92...2004 92...2000 90...1986 90...1982 90....1981 91....1978 91....1974 92...1969 90....1967 91....1965 92....1963 92....1954 92.....1952 91.....1951 92.....1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Some interesting 12z GFS ensembles, August could salvage itself at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Some interesting 12z GFS ensembles, August could salvage itself at the last second. In the very long range, toward the end of the month the trough over the Maritimes could move out and the ridge extend east. If that happens, the flow could become more westerly and we heat up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 In the very long range, toward the end of the month the trough over the Maritimes could move out and the ridge extend east. If that happens, the flow could become more westerly and we heat up. This pattern shift would also direct all TCs westward, if they are able to manifest. Should be interesting. It would be nice to have detailed 500mb maps from the 1930s. I suspect they would be similar to this pattern with strong anomalous ridging over the Canadian Maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Good theory but not proven. I believe the ASOS site at Central Park has been tweaked this year. Even on SW to W flow days the 2 sites have had similar temps. When in the past, Central Park would lag. We would Bill G to weigh in on the matter since I am sure he could find out. But the highs so far this season are similar to recent years with NYC tied for last with JFK. But the one day where NYC was the only 90 around the major stations was odd for recent years. Maybe a forum member went to the park with some tree cutting equipment. NYC....91 LGA....93 JFK.....91 EWR...96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Good thing we got that rain last week-Upton's new forecast is basically bone dry for the next 7 days with temps in the mid 70's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 some late season heat waves three days 90 or higher...Many years in the past had two of three days in the 90's and one day 89 like September 22-26, 1970... since 1938............... 8/21-23/1938.....90 8/29-9/1/1945....93 8/24-26/1947.....93 8/25-29/1948...103 9/11-13/1952.....94 8/24-9/4/1953..102 8/20-22/1955.....97 8/25-29/1959.....94 8/27-29/1960.....91 8/31-9/2/1961....95 9/10-12/1961.....94 8/24-26/1972.....94 8/28-9/4/1973....98 8/21-23/1976.....94 8/24-28/1980.....97 8/31-9/2/1980....96 9/5-7/1983.........94 9/4-6/1985.........94 8/28-30/1991.....94 8/29-9/2/2010....96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Since 1978... only 1982 had no 90 degree days here... none so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 some late season heat waves three days 90 or higher...Many years in the past had two of three days in the 90's and one day 89 like September 22-26, 1970... It's interesting how tame late season heat waves of the 2000's have been from Philly to NYC compared to earlier times. Newark 8-24-53....93 8-25-53....93 8-26-53....91 8-27-53....93 8-28-53...100 8-29-53...100 8-30-53...100 8-31-53...102 9-1-53......96 9-2-53.....105 9-3-53.....94 Central Park 9-20-1895...93 9-21-1895...93 9-22-1895...95 9-23-1895...97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 To come in slightly below normal when compared to the warmest 30 year average on record? Yea I think it's been 12 years since that last happened. What an accomplishment The cooling has already begun and there is no turning back.... The cooling continues, as forecast...making 2010 & 2011 just a distant memory... One of the best and coolest August's in the last 40 years as the overall cooling continues... Also, one must concede that there has been a definitive summer cooling trend with each successive year from 2010 - 2011..2012..2013 being a cooler summer than the preceding one. Obviously no one can say for certain what the distant future holds weather wise...as I always caution those who "guarantee" a warmer future world...my own opinion is, based on the theory that solar influence is the veritable sine qua non of our weather...in conjunction with the recent weak solar cycles...strongly argues for a cooling world in the coming years. I've argued that we are in a cooling trend overall since the horrifying heat of the Summer of 2010...but the scenario you paint is far, far more extreme than anything I would deem likely. But a cool 2014...with average temperatures running one or two degrees normal...seems to be a possibility. Definite cooling trend the last three years at KNYC (monthly mean temperature)... January 2012: 37.3 F January 2013: 35.1 F January 2014: 28.6 F (8.7 F drop) February 2012: 40.9 F February 2013: 33.9 F February 2014: 31.6 F (9.3 F drop) March 2012: 50.9 F March 2013: 40.1 F March 2014: 37.7 F (13.2 F drop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 In the very long range, toward the end of the month the trough over the Maritimes could move out and the ridge extend east. If that happens, the flow could become more westerly and we heat up. I'll believe it when I see it. Every time big heat has been shown in the LR we've seen it become muted. Werent we supposed to be entering into a much warmer regime starting this week? I do recall dates like 8/20 and beyond being targeted but it'll actually be the opposite with cooler than normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 some late season heat waves three days 90 or higher...Many years in the past had two of three days in the 90's and one day 89 like September 22-26, 1970... since 1938............... 8/21-23/1938.....90 8/29-9/1/1945....93 8/24-26/1947.....93 8/25-29/1948...103 9/11-13/1952.....94 8/24-9/4/1953..102 8/20-22/1955.....97 8/25-29/1959.....94 8/27-29/1960.....91 8/31-9/2/1961....95 9/10-12/1961.....94 8/24-26/1972.....94 8/28-9/4/1973....98 8/21-23/1976.....94 8/24-28/1980.....97 8/31-9/2/1980....96 9/5-7/1983.........94 9/4-6/1985.........94 8/28-30/1991.....94 8/29-9/2/2010....96 8/31-9/5/1898.....93 9/21-23/1914......95 9/14-17/1915......93 1941 almost had one in October with two days 90 or higher..1927, 1938 and 1939 are the only other years with a day 90 or higher in October... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 Some interesting 12z GFS ensembles, August could salvage itself at the last second. 12Z ECWMF is very cool for end of August. 40's for lows in interior sections! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 It's interesting how tame late season heat waves of the 2000's have been from Philly to NYC compared to earlier times. Newark 8-24-53....93 8-25-53....93 8-26-53....91 8-27-53....93 8-28-53...100 8-29-53...100 8-30-53...100 8-31-53...102 9-1-53......96 9-2-53.....105 9-3-53.....94 Central Park 9-20-1895...93 9-21-1895...93 9-22-1895...95 9-23-1895...97 the 97 on the 23rd was the hottest temperature for 1895... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 the 97 on the 23rd was the hottest temperature for 1895... Yeah, the heat wave the next summer was a a real tragedy. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129127924 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 18, 2014 Share Posted August 18, 2014 None of those sites are useful for your area or a lot of Queens, Staten Island and the Bronx, where millions live. Central Park and LGA are the most accurate for these areas. While Central Park is useless for most of Manhattan, it's very useful for the suburban parts of NYC's boroughs. For this year, Central Park seems VERY accurate, if you compare it to LGA. The 2 stations have similar temp stats and figures. I think the NWS tweaked the ASOS because I haven't noticed any issues at all this year so far and MANY times Central Park was the warmest station. Warmer then EWR even on several instances, over the past 45 days. LGA and EWR had more winds off their respective waters this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Yeah, the heat wave the next summer was a a real tragedy. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129127924 Anyone who argues things were better in the "good ole days" should read that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 19, 2014 Share Posted August 19, 2014 Anyone who argues things were better in the "good ole days" should read that. Pretty unreal until you realize something similar happened in 1990s Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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