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August 2014


Rtd208

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BDCF signal showing up on some of the Operational/Ensemble guidance in the D8-10 range. Something to watch, and something that could suppress extreme heat prospects later next week. 

 

The blocking has been increasing on recent runs so we get troughing and onshore flow stuck underneath.

Pretty much the MO of the whole summer where the heat looks good long range but modifies as we get closer.

With only 4 days of 90 degree heat at Central Park, we are still behind the 7 of 2009 and 8 of 2003.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/90degdays.htm

 

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Higher pressures to our northeast are not good for heat here, but people keep falling for it. They tend to mean increased onshore flow, backdoor cold fronts, and more blocking. We're best with the highest pressures to our west and/or south, when downsloping increases via westerly flow from a very hot "source" to our west.

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Higher pressures to our northeast are not good for heat here, but people keep falling for it. They tend to mean increased onshore flow, backdoor cold fronts, and more blocking. We're best with the highest pressures to our west and/or south, when downsloping increases via westerly flow from a very hot "source" to our west.

That's always the biggest red flag for any kind of heat here-whenever there's a trough over the Maritimes and a surface high, that means onshore flow and at best normal temps.

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That's the deal with mother nature, you just never know what the weather will produce. Been a weather enthusiast for over 30 years now; this is the coolest summer that I could remember. Wonder what the winter has in store for us! :whistle:  :snowing:

Probably a record warm autumn and boring, warm winter (just because when everyone starts crowing about a cold snowy winter its usually the kiss of death)

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Probably a record warm autumn and boring, warm winter (just because when everyone starts crowing about a cold snowy winter its usually the kiss of death)

Nah. This summer has been a very similar setup to 2003 which also had a very similar ENSO to what we are experiencing now and what is anticipated as we move into the upcoming fall/winter. If we get the NAO to cooperate a bit and the -EPO persists as it appear it will, an 03-04 type winter would not be far-fetched. 09-10 winter is not far behind the 03-04 analog but I doubt the El Nino episode forecasted for this fall/winter will be as robust as 09-10.

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Feels and looks like late September out there.

 

Strato-cu covering the sky, now becoming mostly cloudy. Temp of 71F and breezy. High of only 73 so far. Very cool August day.

 

Just returned and looked like I was away 2 months not two days.  Cloudy and fall-like.  Way too early.  Looks like the ridging into the east starts dirty but still looks like a warm 10 days to 2 weeks overall. Some onshore flow towards the 24th but wouldn't rule out some heat thu-sat next week (8/21 - 8/23)

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