Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean is wetter than the op for Saturday. how much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 So we have one poster basically saying washout and another saying euro shows very little...no wonder why the one gets bannef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Yeah I'm kind of in the dark on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 So we have one poster basically saying washout and another saying euro shows very little...no wonder why the one gets bannefExpect a lot more of this come winter time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 So we have one poster basically saying washout and another saying euro shows very little...no wonder why the one gets bannef Reread. In his defense, that's not what happened. I haven't looked at the model so I can't comment any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 So we have one poster basically saying washout and another saying euro shows very little...no wonder why the one gets bannef The 12z euro today has rain ending at about 2pm Saturday. And very little for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 The 12z euro today has rain ending at about 2pm Saturday. And very little for Sunday. Thanks age. Does it look like we clear out sat PM and sunday more scattered or are we socked in with clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Thanks age. Does it look like we clear out sat PM and sunday more scattered or are we socked in with clouds? Sunday on the euro was cloudy with scattered light rain showers. Needs to be watched though as heavier rain was just south of the area and models are still going back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Relax. The model shows a good soaking for the area late Friday into Saturday-whether it ends at 12 noon or 4pm doesnt really matter-no one's heading to the beach or swimming pool regardless that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Sunday on the euro was cloudy with scattered light rain showers. Needs to be watched though as heavier rain was just south of the area and models are still going back and forth. I thought we were on the same page with this one. I said the day was salvagable from 20z on. Maybe that's an hour or two later than what you said. Small differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Saturday night still looks salvagable, like from about 20z on. Sunday afternoon/evening look damp. Please explain how this post above is calling for a washout. Thanks. So we have one poster basically saying washout and another saying euro shows very little...no wonder why the one gets bannef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 how much QPF? The ensemble mean for KEWR is ~ 0.50" wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 I think it's important to note the spread still in the modeling regarding Saturday and the uncertainty that exists. Several of the ensemble members, including the control run have little to nothing falling before 18z Saturday with the majority of precip falling during the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Um yes some of have afternoon plans so its a big difference between 12 and 4 endtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 Um yes some of have afternoon plans so its a big difference between 12 and 4 endtime The difference between what AG3 said and what I said was from 2 to 4PM. The Euro op is quicker than the ensemble mean which probably means it's too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted July 30, 2014 Share Posted July 30, 2014 The 12z euro today has rain ending at about 2pm Saturday. And very little for Sunday. What about for the hudson Valley? I am going to be up at the NY Renaissance Faire in Tuxedo, NY on Saturday and would like to know if I should pack my cloak or not. Oh and shameless plug.. Everyone come to the NY Renaissance Faire!! I will be there on Saturdays in garb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 What about for the hudson Valley? I am going to be up at the NY Renaissance Faire in Tuxedo, NY on Saturday and would like to know if I should pack my cloak or not. Oh and shameless plug.. Everyone come to the NY Renaissance Faire!! I will be there on Saturdays in garb! Still a lot of uncertainty about when rain arrives and ends on Saturday. Hopefully the wave/low can remain offshore and/or it clears out in time to salvage time for outdoor stuff on Saturday afternoon. I'd hedge on it being rainier/nasty based on recent trends. Best of luck, just about the only thing I envy Tuxedo, NY about though is how many more times it doubles Long Beach in snowfall in every storm we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Still a lot of uncertainty about when rain arrives and ends on Saturday. Hopefully the wave/low can remain offshore and/or it clears out in time to salvage time for outdoor stuff on Saturday afternoon. I'd hedge on it being rainier/nasty based on recent trends. Best of luck, just about the only thing I envy Tuxedo, NY about though is how many more times it doubles Long Beach in snowfall in every storm we get. The gfs is basically dry Saturday. Has rain Friday night and again Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 0z euro is 1"+ of rain from 2am Saturday to 2pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 0z euro is 1"+ of rain from 2am Saturday to 2pm Saturday. I think the Canadian agrees as well, so I'd say that's the likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 I think the Canadian agrees as well, so I'd say that's the likely scenario. The 00z GGEM is east and has little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The 00z GGEM is east and has little to nothing. Well, that's a new twist. Guess it's going to come down to placement of the front-a shift of 30-50 miles means the difference b/w washout and salvageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It seems like Saturday morning will be worse than the afternoon. Hopefully the rain clears out quickly enough to salvage the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 As long as sunday is fine when i get off work at 1 to go fishing on my boat i will be happy looking like that will be possible thus far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 The 00z GGEM is east and has little to nothing. It has .50"+ for NYC/SWCT and more for LI and 1"+ for eastern Suffolk County. 0z Euro ensembles are as wet as the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 As long as sunday is fine when i get off work at 1 to go fishing on my boat i will be happy looking like that will be possible thus far..... You can always stay in Bay. P.S. Fluke run is on fire right now in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 Waiting for the 09z SREF to update on e-wall but it seems to be coming into a better agreement as the QPF has increased ten fold on the mean, indicating less spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 You can always stay in Bay. P.S. Fluke run is on fire right now in the ocean. Yeah my 6 year old nephew caught 16 of them the other day out on the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It has .50"+ for NYC/SWCT and more for LI and 1"+ for eastern Suffolk County. 0z Euro ensembles are as wet as the op. It does? 10 MM is only 0.39". NYC is less than that or just about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 31, 2014 Share Posted July 31, 2014 It does? 10 MM is only 0.39". NYC is less than that or just about that. NYC is closer to 12-14mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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