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August 2014


Rtd208

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Very pleasant summer weather wise. 86F here today. Grass is quite lush here as I've got 12.8" of rain for the meteorological summer thus far. Had over 1" last weekend.

 

Good T-storm activity the first half of summer. It's been pretty boring since late July though. Hopefully more storms and heat in the second half of August.

 

Also I'm at 639 CDD's for the year. Seems a bit below average to date. I average 979 annually.

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This has to be the one of the top 10 most "normal average" summers overall (June through August )so far in recorded history for both temps and precip in the area

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

 

It really has since mid May,  Despite the warmth today the cooler nights have helped to average out to normal,  You wonder at some point somethings gotta give.

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Very pleasant summer weather wise. 86F here today. Grass is quite lush here as I've got 12.8" of rain for the meteorological summer thus far. Had over 1" last weekend.

 

Good T-storm activity the first half of summer. It's been pretty boring since late July though. Hopefully more storms and heat in the second half of August.

 

Also I'm at 639 CDD's for the year. Seems a bit below average to date. I average 979 annually.

12.49" here so far for summer...also running about a -2 degree departure so far for August.
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But we also have some real negatives coming from Tuesday through at least Saturday.

 

8/12 - 8/17 looks -3 to -6 type stuff maybe more wed/thu.  8/18 - 8/31 will have to add some strong plus departures which still looks possible according to the latest model data.

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Models indicating that the drier sections of Long Island could get into the area of heavier

rains Tuesday night into Wednesday. PWATs are forecast  surge to 2.00"+ with training of 

cells ahead of the triple point low possible. 

 

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thanks a lot. it was a nice fish that's for sure, these GULP alive baits coupled with between a 3/4- 1 1/2oz. white bucktail have been lethal on the fluke this year!

 

Gulp Alive is the miracle to fluke fishing.

I haven't brought any bait for the past 2 years.

 

Tip:

Try 4" and 5"  in the "Nuclear Chicken" color. Deadly color.

Thank me later.

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UPTON

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACT ON THE
INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVG.

A COMBINATION OF A PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...A DEVELOPING
30-35 KT LLJ OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...PW INCREASING
TO 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HIGHEST WEST...AND FORECAST OF A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WILL YIELD INCREASING POP FROM W TO E
THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ZONES...WHERE POP INCREASE TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MAINLY W OF THE
HUDSON RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER
IN THE AFTERNOON TO WESTERN ZONES...CORRESPONDING TO HIGHEST
FORECAST CAPE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET.

FOR NOW APPEARS CAPE WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
WITH ONLY 20-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF HIGHER
VALUES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED...TOWARD 1000 J/KG...THAT WOULD BRING
BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR DOWN TO THE
15-40 RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

 

MT HOLLY 

THE LIKELIHOOD REMAINS FOR HEAVY RAIN. FORTUITOUSLY WE ARE ENTERING
THIS THREAT WITH FLASH FLOOD (3"/HR) AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE (SOME AS
HIGH AS 5"/HR) LITERALLY BANGING AGAINST THE CEILING. OUTSIDE OF
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ITS BEEN A DRY AUGUST SO FAR. REGARDLESS, THIS
WONT TAKE AWAY FROM URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND POTENTIALLY SMALLER
CREEK PROBLEMS AS WILL STILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. AFTER THAT,
MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR AUGUST WILL
RETURN.

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UPTON

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDES TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY

RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACT ON THE

INCREASING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS...MAINLY AFTER

MIDNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF AVG.

A COMBINATION OF A PASSING 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE...A DEVELOPING

30-35 KT LLJ OVER WESTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON...PW INCREASING

TO 100-150 PERCENT OF NORMAL...HIGHEST WEST...AND FORECAST OF A

FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE WILL YIELD INCREASING POP FROM W TO E

THROUGH THE DAY. BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE OVER WESTERN

ZONES...WHERE POP INCREASE TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MAINLY W OF THE

HUDSON RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO LIMITED CHANCE OF THUNDER

IN THE AFTERNOON TO WESTERN ZONES...CORRESPONDING TO HIGHEST

FORECAST CAPE AND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL JET.

FOR NOW APPEARS CAPE WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS

WITH ONLY 20-30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF HIGHER

VALUES OF CAPE ARE REALIZED...TOWARD 1000 J/KG...THAT WOULD BRING

BULK RICHARDSON NUMBERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR DOWN TO THE

15-40 RANGE...FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

 

MT HOLLY 

THE LIKELIHOOD REMAINS FOR HEAVY RAIN. FORTUITOUSLY WE ARE ENTERING

THIS THREAT WITH FLASH FLOOD (3"/HR) AND HEADWATER GUIDANCE (SOME AS

HIGH AS 5"/HR) LITERALLY BANGING AGAINST THE CEILING. OUTSIDE OF

THE IMMEDIATE COAST, ITS BEEN A DRY AUGUST SO FAR. REGARDLESS, THIS

WONT TAKE AWAY FROM URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE AND POTENTIALLY SMALLER

CREEK PROBLEMS AS WILL STILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HWO. AFTER THAT,

MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR AUGUST WILL

RETURN.

 

Timing still seems to be an issue. The NAM is mostly light tomorrow and tomorrow night before dumping on us Wednesday morning. The GFS is spread out starting tomorrow morning lasting 24 hours on and off

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