PB GFI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Day 10 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Ahhhhh , The subtle Petulant writings from a hermaphrodite. We were discussing the Euro not JB . No doubting that JB has a great wealth of knowledge in meteorology but we all know he bites of more than he can chew sometimes. IMO hes another met who is gonna win some and lose some after all even with all the advancements in weather forecasting we still have a hard time even forecasting storms the day of an event. Anyway i digress, when the ECMWF shows a tropical cyclone p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Ahhhhh , The subtle Petulant writings from a hermaphrodite. We were discussing the Euro not JB . No doubting that JB has a great wealth of knowledge in meteorology but we all know he bites of more than he can chew sometimes. IMO hes another met who is gonna win some and lose some after all even with all the advancements in weather forecasting we still have a hard time even forecasting storms the day of an event. Anyway i digress, when the ECMWF shows a tropical cyclone post-sandy im listening it is VERY GOOD at forecasting east coast cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 No doubting that JB has a great wealth of knowledge in meteorology but we all know he bites of more than he can chew sometimes. IMO hes another met who is gonna win some and lose some after all even with all the advancements in weather forecasting we still have a hard time even forecasting storms the day of an event. Anyway i digress, when the ECMWF shows a tropical cyclone post-sandy im listening it is VERY GOOD at forecasting east coast cyclogenesis I was able to get the vendor thread back to page 1 ( it was buried on page 3 ) so this thread isn't clogged up with JB nonsense http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39531-vendor-blog-and-tv-channel-forecasts-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 4PM on a splendid August afternoon 'Summer Breeze makes me feel fine' TEB: 85 NYC: 81 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFK: 84 ISP: 82 New Brnswick: 83 TTN: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 outside of a rogue day, I think most locales have seen their last 90 degree days...next 10 days looks like status quo and that gets us to 8/17...starting to get to the point where incoming heating starts to really decrease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 What a ridiculous trough on the 12z ECMWF. Something that we would be drooling over in another few months. yeah since 00z last night guidance trended for deeper trough and cutoff low over the northeast between next wed (8/13) and sat (8/16). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 outside of a rogue day, I think most locales have seen their last 90 degree days...next 10 days looks like status quo and that gets us to 8/17...starting to get to the point where incoming heating starts to really decrease Anomalous late season ridging patterns in late August and the first half of September could still produce at least several more 90 degree days, if one occurs. Of course, the later we get into the season, particularly post 8/25, the more anomalous the pattern must be to string together more than 1-2 days of 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 outside of a rogue day, I think most locales have seen their last 90 degree days...next 10 days looks like status quo and that gets us to 8/17...starting to get to the point where incoming heating starts to really decrease This has been the least extreme summer I can recall...it seems that literally every day is in the 80s. We warm up with a few days of humidity and upper 80s, then a sharp cold front arrives in the mean WNW flow and gives us a weekend of 78-82 and sunny. Rinse and repeat. Very little variation in the pattern, and aside from a few rainers, very little in the way of storm systems or threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 he says that every fall and you ignorant halfwits fall for it every time It's too predictable and I bet the next thing he will say is cold and snowy winter in the east this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 It can get plenty hot in second half of August and first 10 days of September. I wouldn't write off that whole period from August 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 It can get plenty hot in second half of August and first 10 days of September. I wouldn't write off that whole period from August 7th. It becomes more difficult to get widespread 90F+ readings and that's just climo unless we have a highly anomalous ridge and heat source which has been sorely lacking this summer. I'll say another 1-3 days of 90F seem probable for the rest of August through September but any more than that is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Zumanjaro? Went on it. Cool ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 I really don't like the way the tropics are shaping up. It took awhile but the ensembles are starting to have that look. WAR shifts West with a trough over the TN valley in about 10-14 days opening up the east coast for business. The forecasted El Niño should have been kicking in around then and shutting things down. Instead the El Niño is virtually non existent. Meanwhile activity looks to be picking up around the same time. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Today's highs TEB: 86 NYC: 83 EWR: 86 LGA: 83 JFK: 86 ISP: 83 New Brunswick: 84 TTN: 82 PHL: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 through the first week og august NYC: -1.3 EWR: -1.0 LGA: -1.8 JFK: -0.8 TTN: -2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 through the first week og august NYC: -1.3 EWR: -1.0 LGA: -1.8 JFK: -0.8 TTN: -2.2 There's a good chance this month ends up below normal too given the upcoming cooler weather next week and lack of any big heat. Things look to maybe reverse the last third of August but that remains to be seen and it may not be enough to turn the month positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 T storms s next week ? As the trough crashes into the EC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 T storms s next week ? As the trough crashes into the EC . We can use that a little further east for Long Island. But the orientation of the trough has been favoring sections from NYC west this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 We can use that a little further east for Long Island. But the orientation of the trough has been favoring sections from NYC west this summer. 20140805_northeast_none.png Hard to look at this 5 days out . But with a trough that strong Severe WX prob a possibility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 August 8th and i wore a light jacket this morning. -EPO dont you dare go away for winter! this summer has been awesome though with no oppressive heat really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Hard to look at this 5 days out . But with a trough that strong Severe WX prob a possibility . Paul, with respect to chris i agree 100% with what he said the bulk of the storms have been almost solely focused west of NYC. Both models you showed concentrate convection in the area mentioned above. IMO its a wash,rinse,repeat with the same areas cashing in. (Not being a debbie downer like usual just agreeing with sir bluewave) but you are right action on EC in the form of severe weather is possible.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 We can use that a little further east for Long Island. But the orientation of the trough has been favoring sections from NYC west this summer. 20140805_northeast_none.png Agree ill be in AC tuesday and coming home friday so maybe ill see some action down there, although ill still be on the water "a storms nemesis" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Paul, with respect to chris i agree 100% with what he said the bulk of the storms have been almost solely focused west of NYC. Both models you showed concentrate convection in the area mentioned above. IMO its a wash,rinse,repeat with the same areas cashing in. (Not being a debbie downer like usual just agreeing with sir bluewave) but you are right action on EC in the form of severe weather is possible.... It has happened all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Agree ill be in AC tuesday and coming home friday so maybe ill see some action down there, although ill still be on the water "a storms nemesis" The ridge axis over the Maritimes has been just a little too far west for Long Island to get the soaking that some more western spots have received on occasion this summer. But the trough near the Great Lakes has been the dominant theme for the better part of a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 It has happened all yearAnddddd is true form i have recieved ZERO severe weather watches this year a streak that IMO will continue until trough axis moves further east until then the rich keep on getting richer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 The GEFS also agree on a warmer pattern to take shape around 8/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Lots of smoke in the sky today, I'm guessing from the Canadian fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pineywoodsli Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 Smoky pall over the skies today. This was at dawn this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pineywoodsli Posted August 8, 2014 Share Posted August 8, 2014 And sunset last night revealed smoke as well. I have to say this is quite unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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