REDMK6GLI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Looks like we have probably seen the last heat wave of the summer - we have only seen 1 this summer earlier in July and only ten 90 degree days so far at newark - no heat waves or 90 degree days on the GFS the next 16 days with below normal precip . http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr As long is it great weather august 12-15 as ill be down in AC for my birthday i am fine with that! In another month most if not all of us will be going full steam ahead into the winter forecasts..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Blocking regime looks to continue for at least another 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Beautiful day to go to Six Flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Beautiful day to go to Six Flags Zumanjaro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Blocking regime looks to continue for at least another 7-10 days. have to be somewhat concerned with a possible strong block developing in the north atlantic and the chatter going on in the MET community of the period after August 18th of possible tropical storms developing in the carribbean and coming up the east coast - the neg NAO would tend to force these storms back into the coast - this is what happened with Sandy and at the height of the hurricane season later this month into the first half of September - this could be a BIG problem along the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 have to be somewhat concerned with a possible strong block developing in the north atlantic and the chatter going on in the MET community of the period after August 18th of possible tropical storms developing in the carribbean and coming up the east coast - the neg NAO would tend to force these storms back into the coast - this is what happened with Sandy and at the height of the hurricane season later this month into the first half of September - this could be a BIG problem along the east coast The probability of another Sandy happening this year is maybe 1 in a thousand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 have to be somewhat concerned with a possible strong block developing in the north atlantic and the chatter going on in the MET community of the period after August 18th of possible tropical storms developing in the carribbean and coming up the east coast - the neg NAO would tend to force these storms back into the coast - this is what happened with Sandy and at the height of the hurricane season later this month into the first half of September - this could be a BIG problem along the east coast In August 2011 (prior to Sandy) the WAR ridge was further west. While I do think we could be dealing with a few threats down the road, the mean trough axis appears to be more favorable for a southeast hit that then gets punted offshore before making it this far north. See Arther 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The probability of another Sandy happening this year is maybe 1 in a thousand. Yeah, we got to witness a 1 in 700 year event. http://science-beta.slashdot.org/story/13/07/16/1656208/hurricane-sandy-a-1-in-700-year-event-says-nasa-study Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yeah, we got to witness a 1 in 700 year event. http://science-beta.slashdot.org/story/13/07/16/1656208/hurricane-sandy-a-1-in-700-year-event-says-nasa-study JB @ 7 am put this out ECMWF DAY 11 ON: LOOK OUT EAST COAST CAROLINAS NORTH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I do think this year is favorable for a few close calls but not a track like Sandy. Maybe an Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I do think this year is favorable for a few close calls but not a track like Sandy. Maybe an Irene. The Irene track is the one more typical of anything that runs the east coast (vs Sandy) Some have said that since we're in the end game of the warm AMO, we're more likely for a hit, similar to the pattern of the mid and late 1950's. Time will tell. Seems that the tropic have been awfully quiet in the Altantic the last few years...would not surprise me in the least to see yet another quiet season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 I do think this year is favorable for a few close calls but not a track like Sandy. Maybe an Irene. whatever better hope another big one doesn't happen this year because PSE&G hasn't started upgrading its power grid yet http://www.northjersey.com/news/nj-state-news/pse-g-to-start-work-soon-on-1-2-billion-energy-strong-improvements-1.1020499 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 whatever better hope another big one doesn't happen this year because PSE&G hasn't started upgrading its power grid yet http://www.northjersey.com/news/nj-state-news/pse-g-to-start-work-soon-on-1-2-billion-energy-strong-improvements-1.1020499 I work for Okonite. PSE&G is our largest customer. Believe me, they have been in the process of upgrading for years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yeah, we got to witness a 1 in 700 year event. http://science-beta.slashdot.org/story/13/07/16/1656208/hurricane-sandy-a-1-in-700-year-event-says-nasa-study Hurricane Sandy was not your typical TC and occured way late, the comparisons are somewhat mute here. NE, particularily Long Island has observed some nasty hits, but it has been largely dead since Hurricane Bob in 91. I agree the storm itself was a 1 in 700 year event however, there is a possibility of that becoming 1 in 100 or 1 in 50 later on. Sandy would of never happened without the anomalous blocking setup caused by 2012's historic -NAO regime and it's not possible to claim for certain or disprove or approve any links between that and AGW. Evidence points to there being some significant influence. The Hadley Cells are also expected to keep expanding, this will shift TC tracks substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Another fabulous stretch of weather blue skies and temps in the low - mid 80s the next 6 days. Looks like Iso has a good handle on the rest of the month and guidance has been slowly trending to the warm look past the mid month mark. Before then its Bob Seger - Still the same (normal look) But it will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 JB @ 7 am put this out ECMWF DAY 11 ON: LOOK OUT EAST COAST CAROLINAS NORTH! As far as tropical systems go paul. I will always put my eggs into the ECMWF basket, it was deadly accurate 7 days out with sandy and never wavered. JB did well with sandy because he followed the ECMWF and didnt really give any other model a nod, he scored the coup on that one IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Hurricane Sandy was not your typical TC and occured way late, the comparisons are somewhat mute here. NE, particularily Long Island has observed some nasty hits, but it has been largely dead since Hurricane Bob in 91. I agree the storm itself was a 1 in 700 year event however, there is a possibility of that becoming 1 in 100 or 1 in 50 later on. Sandy would of never happened without the anomalous blocking setup caused by 2012's historic -NAO regime and it's not possible to claim for certain or disprove or approve any links between that and AGW. Evidence points to there being some significant influence. The Hadley Cells are also expected to keep expanding, this will shift TC tracks substantially. The anomalous blocking did help Sandy move NW, but remember it was also captured and pulled in by a storm coming out of the Midwest, which later phased into it. That's what made it a "Perfect Storm" and increased its intensity to that of a strong category 3 in terms of pressure. Without that interaction, Sandy would likely have been a minor tropical storm by the time it arrived here, and cold water/shear/dry air would have killed it. The trough interaction helped Sandy overcome all that by giving it baroclinic characteristics while keeping a tropical core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 As far as tropical systems go paul. I will always put my eggs into the ECMWF basket, it was deadly accurate 7 days out with sandy and never wavered. JB did well with sandy because he followed the ECMWF and didnt really give any other model a nod, he scored the coup on that one IMO. The canadian was also good-it actually had it a day before the Euro and outside of a fluke run or two, never wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The anomalous blocking did help Sandy move NW, but remember it was also captured and pulled in by a storm coming out of the Midwest, which later phased into it. That's what made it a "Perfect Storm" and increased its intensity to that of a strong category 3 in terms of pressure. Without that interaction, Sandy would likely have been a minor tropical storm by the time it arrived here, and cold water/shear/dry air would have killed it. The trough interaction helped Sandy overcome all that by giving it baroclinic characteristics while keeping a tropical core. Yes, however I think the anomaly was caused by longwave distance being increased from ridge to trough. The so-called "enhanced waviness". Overall, the westerlies have seemingly weakened in Spring and Fall when temperature gradients are lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 As far as tropical systems go paul. I will always put my eggs into the ECMWF basket, it was deadly accurate 7 days out with sandy and never wavered. JB did well with sandy because he followed the ECMWF and didnt really give any other model a nod, he scored the coup on that one IMO. It was even more impressive that that ECMWF ensemble storm strike probably product flagged our area for landfall at D-8.5 before the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The canadian was also good-it actually had it a day before the Euro and outside of a fluke run or two, never wavered. The Canadian did have it first but it lost it quickly and it took days for it to come back. It wasn't just a fluke run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 Yes, however I think the anomaly was caused by longwave distance being increased from ridge to trough. The so-called "enhanced waviness". Overall, the westerlies have seemingly weakened in Spring and Fall when temperature gradients are lower. Right. You could argue that the strongly anomalous block "caused" the trough to be as menacing as it was to begin with in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 John's write up on Sandy/jet streaks was awesome. http://www.nymetroweather.com/2013/10/24/hurricane-sandy-pressure/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 What a ridiculous trough on the 12z ECMWF. Something that we would be drooling over in another few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 this is a powder keg setup even without an added hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 The Canadian did have it first but it lost it quickly and it took days for it to come back. It wasn't just a fluke run or 2. My bad then, I thought it stuck with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 JB @ 7 am put this out ECMWF DAY 11 ON: LOOK OUT EAST COAST CAROLINAS NORTH! he says that every fall and you ignorant halfwits fall for it every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 he says that every fall and you ignorant halfwits fall for it every time I doubt many fall for it anymore, no more than anyone who believes a 5 month prog... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 What a ridiculous trough on the 12z ECMWF. Something that we would be drooling over in another few months. for when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 7, 2014 Share Posted August 7, 2014 for when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.