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August 2014


Rtd208

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Today feels like its going to be one of those muggy August days with temps in the 70s and sun peaking through on occasion...tomorrow as well. Most places will stay dry and by this afternoon outdoor activities can commence

Models now have a rainy day tomorrow for a lot of LI.

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The Euro is about 0.75"-1.00" area wide spread out over the next several days. Activity looks convective so as usual we'll have winners and losers.

Naturally with convection i will be on the losing end for sure :lol:. Nice that today was not a total washout, not exactly beach weather but it isnt that terrible drizzly and dreary day

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I think our best chance for a prolonged (2-3+ days) heat spell is late August.

 

On the ECMWF weeklies, pattern progresses from a sub normal first week of August to near normal temps Aug 10th-20th, then essentially a nationwide warmer than normal pattern for the final 10-11 days of meteorological summer. While there's lower skill in week 3-4, I like the idea of a pattern shifting to predominately warmer than normal as we head deeper into August and then September. Analog support for that as well.

 

 

vu8fl.png

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I think our best chance for a prolonged (2-3+ days) heat spell is late August.

On the ECMWF weeklies, pattern progresses from a sub normal first week of August to near normal temps Aug 10th-20th, then essentially a nationwide warmer than normal pattern for the final 10-11 days of meteorological summer. While there's lower skill in week 3-4, I like the idea of a pattern shifting to predominately warmer than normal as we head deeper into August. Analog support for that as well.

vu8fl.png

Is it true the weeklies have a TC hitting the mid-Atlantic the third week of August? Heard that somewhere else. Had no idea that they are that specific.
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Is it true the weeklies have a TC hitting the mid-Atlantic the third week of August? Heard that somewhere else. Had no idea that they are that specific.

 

I believe that is in reference to the specialized ECMWF long range tropical product. But I don't have any

information on the success rate so far out in time for recent years individual storm threats. It may just

be highlighting an area that could see some general tropical development.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/latest-tropical-cyclones-forecast

 

Tropical cyclone activity: these products are based on tropical cyclone activity througout the forecast. They are produced twice a day from the ENS, twice a week for the extended range (month ahead) and once a month for the seasonal forecasts. They give an indication of the potential tropical cyclone activity in the coming days, weeks and months.

More information about the tropical cyclone products can be found in ECMWF Newsletter No. 130 (pp 17-23)

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For you hot weather fans... hit 100 degrees here on Aug 1st, 2nd and 3rd... 2006.

 

A couple of weeks before that we had the big gust front which kicked up quite a mini sandstorm in 

Long Beach during the evening. I went out to watch it approach and got sandblasted as the visibility

fell very quickly.

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I believe that is in reference to the specialized ECMWF long range tropical product. But I don't have any

information on the success rate so far out in time for recent years individual storm threats. It may just

be highlighting an area that could see some general tropical development.

http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/latest-tropical-cyclones-forecast

Tropical cyclone activity: these products are based on tropical cyclone activity througout the forecast. They are produced twice a day from the ENS, twice a week for the extended range (month ahead) and once a month for the seasonal forecasts. They give an indication of the potential tropical cyclone activity in the coming days, weeks and months.

More information about the tropical cyclone products can be found in ECMWF Newsletter No. 130 (pp 17-23)

Thanks
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