Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I love this time of year when you finally see lower heights pushing more and more south in the extended. It's been plaguing the entire summer thus far... j/k Sunday musings... It has been an interesting sort of season where we've witnessed, and for summer warmth enthusiasts, quite suffered, persistent negative geopotential result in SE Can/Lakes and NE regions... Pretty well documented in AFDs routinely all season, from local offices to NCEP and back. And even now ... if perhaps we can even say, 'yet again', this long advertised PNAP reversal and eastern warm up is arriving in recent model trends as more of a relaxation-reload; a mere lark in the show. Just not a summer for heat. It just is what it is. Fwinotw ... the idiot Farmer that relies on that Almanac ... thinks it is going to be a brutally cold winter... I read that and I'm thinking, 'Really? Why? Because it's been cool-ish for so long that we are in some Stockholm cryosphere where it is hard to think otherwise?' They may have a method to that thing they put out every year, but I swear ...sometimes it seems like I can predict THEIR prediction, and have it be based purely on some fuzzy feeling on my arms that it's going to be one way or the other. I could have told anyone they were going to stick us in the back of ice box and throw away the key to the freezer - duh. Heh, ...I dunno. There may be something to that, seein' as we're still in that superposition of negative solar cycling (300, 22, 11 or whatever the H it is...). That, combined with the EPO/AO/NAO arc slipping into that multi-decadal negative. ... hey, you know - I saw that multiple decade calculated curve super-imposed on the solar cycle one, and they had very high correlation coefficient just by eye-balling the thing. So perhaps the two go hand in hand, and if the arc of the polar indexes known to f with our intraseasonal climate is indeed going to be biased negative by that best assessment method (...shy of quantum processor, prescient awareness ..) than sure! See? it doesn't take a whole publication to get to a baser expectation on things. What a joke. We'll see but it's down right comical to me ...almost airs of tragic in a way, that last year's brutal cold assault over in our little box of the world took place during the 4th warmest Earth on scientific record. Or maybe that was just January ...? Either way, talk about perpetuating the local snow/winter delusion. There's been more posts related to winter nostalgia on this board this August than I think there has been actually during any winter... Sometimes it comes across so potent one must wonder if the effort is some sort of psycho-babble hiding in a fantasy that denies the reality outside the typist's window. Fascinating. I mean, all these "if this were winter in this pattern" this, or "this pattern reminds me of winter that" - really? Ah, no. I like a good snow storm too, but just the coming together part about it really. Watching the models fumble around with governing dynamics, while they (anthropomorphism) squirrel with the physics until they find a way to distract from their chorus of ensemble-derived teleconnectors...only to bow their heads in shame as the capitulate in the end to coastal bomb. And the mood of the forum moving along with each model cycle with 1.0 correlation coefficiency. It's like a favorite sitcom in many ways. But once the snow has dumped, I'm done, and don't really care so much for the cold. I find lingering cold annoying, particularly in Spring when it belays foliage break out. Not sure what purpose that serves other than enabling the snow OCD and annoying the crap out of the other 90 whatever % of sane civility. Yet I'd be lying if I didn't admit to some interest in the snow depth aspect... Like when my ambient snow depth in the yard and countryside approaches 30 inches, and the NAO hiccups from -2SD to -.25, then back down again, I wonder if there will be a corrective storm system in there to drive that pack to 40". I haven't lived much outside of eastern Mass for the past 3 decades. It's my own private little irrational endeavor, to challenge the atmosphere to break the coveted 36" deep record, established just prior to the thaw of 1995. If there's no hope of challenging that depth? screw it... winter ends for me when my eyes detect the returning power of good old sol ...and that usually around the 11th of February every year. When the tone and topic for winter hasn't even yet achieved its greatest fever pitch on these public forums, ironically... Ha! Snow after that date is on the death curve of seasonal change futility, and barring a once in 300-year or whatever anomaly from an enabling hell occurrence of two sufficiently off-setting thirty inch yard stick delusions, ... the snow can't win people. Not without a comet impact or a Krakatoa event -- maybe that is what should be obsessed over - nice. CNN: Breaking News - 'Comet discovered heading toward Earth' American Weather Forums - New England/August Discussion: 'I bet we get a whole year of winter out of this thing! Awesome' ...when no one is alive to witness it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 lol, love the 10-paragraph Tippy psycho-analytical posts on AMWX forum members and all other things related to winter. Sometimes its hard to tell if he loves psychology more than the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 lol, love the Tippy psycho-analyitical posts on AMWX forum members and all other things related to winter. Yeah that Wyoming snow was pretty interesting quite frankly - and no ... not because I'm predisposed here Dendrite I was looking at the NWS Radar Mosaic yesterday morning and the western region of that strata reflectivity definitely looked like a snow return. Very much so.. I'm not sure what the actual anomaly value is here ...though obviously it is negative - duh. But in the 1970s there was a 30" Denver snow storm around the last 10 days of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Actually check that ... I just went to Denver's NWS page and they wrote... Earliest Date of First Snow: September 3, 1961 Which reads nothing like the story I was told by a guy used to work with. ...So someone's wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Yeah that Wyoming snow was pretty interesting quite frankly - and no ... not because I'm predisposed here Dendrite I was looking at the NWS Radar Mosaic yesterday morning and the western region of that strata reflectivity definitely looked like a snow return. Very much so.. I'm not sure what the actual anomaly value is here ...though obviously it is negative - duh. But in the 1970s there was a 30" Denver snow storm around the last 10 days of August. Probably unusual, but not unheard of for those elevations in August...but definitely not something that happens all that often at some of the elevations it got down to. I usually think of mid-September as the more climo normal time for the first snow at a lot of those ski resorts, but that's anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Figures ... as though some cosmic finger was poised over the model output, the instant I typed "lark" in deference to the PNAP reversal, the 12z GFS mocks me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I have the A/C on at nights still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 That one is a Tip classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Actually check that ... I just went to Denver's NWS page and they wrote... Earliest Date of First Snow: September 3, 1961 Which reads nothing like the story I was told by a guy used to work with. ...So someone's wrong here. About 35 years ago there was a patriots broncos game in September in Denver played in heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Perfect day here. Current temp is 72F and mostly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 It's been plaguing the entire summer thus far... j/k Heh...it certainly has, but I'm looking more northward of the 48th parallel. I just like how quickly the heights can take on a more autumn look versus summer look in just 10 days across NAMER. Last night's euro at 0hr versus 240hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Heh...it certainly has, but I'm looking more northward of the 48th parallel. I just like how quickly the heights can take on a more autumn look versus summer look in just 10 days across NAMER. Last night's euro at 0hr versus 240hr euro0hr.gif euro240hr.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Heh...it certainly has, but I'm looking more northward of the 48th parallel. I just like how quickly the heights can take on a more autumn look versus summer look in just 10 days across NAMER. Last night's euro at 0hr versus 240hr euro0hr.gif euro240hr.gif No your right ... ball bustin' aside I've noticed that the typically migrant polar holes have been showing up deeper as well...Some cores drilling into the 520's DM range up there... Might be time to start monitoring the cryospheric recovery; I and Scott any others who have, have noted "rate" of recovery as being perhaps more telling. Seemed to work last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 oh, wait - duh. that's september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Tip face it, we are we are we are, REFRIGERNATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Its coming, shots across the bow all summer long, less than 70 days unitl legit snow threats envelop SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Destructive sunshine day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Its coming, shots across the bow all summer long, less than 70 days unitl legit snow threats envelop SNE I won't *expect* any threats in 70 days (that's Nov 3 I think). More like 90 for any wide-spread threat--I'm guessing. Destructive sunshine day No destruction here--full sun all day thus far. 73.8/58. Let COC rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 No destruction here.deep sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 No destruction here.deep sun hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 A couple puffy fair wx cumulus in a mostly sunny sky is SD? Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 No destruction here--full sun all day thus far. 73.8/58. Let COC rule. On second observation, there are quite a few clouds, but they've managed to only minimally impact the sun. All in all, doesn't get much better in the summer. 74.1/62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 On second observation, there are quite a few clouds, but they've managed to only minimally impact the sun. All in all, doesn't get much better in the summer. 74.1/62 Yep perfect low dew day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 hmm LOL--I'm in the western periphery of that clear slice that runs from the Hanover area to Pete's house. Like I said just above--there are lots of clouds, but 95% of the day they have not blocked the sun. At least not yet....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I was trying to respond to your obs post, Steve, but I think you removed it. My point was that we shouldn't expect legit chances at the beginning of November (or late October ), Of course we've had our moments. I particularly love my report of 21.9" on that. I don't believe that was my total, though--I believe I ended up with 23 or 24. On the other side of the coin, there are no reports from Franklin County on the Nov 8 report. I guess we busted up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 LOL--I'm in the western periphery of that clear slice that runs from the Hanover area to Pete's house. Like I said just above--there are lots of clouds, but 95% of the day they have not blocked the sun. At least not yet....... As the sun has heated the lower atmosphere clouds have become more numerous, down here blocking the sun at times but still a fantastic day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 everybody shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 There is only 250-something days until May 1st, 2015!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 I was trying to respond to your obs post, Steve. My point was that we shouldn't expect legit chances at the beginning of November (or late October ), Of course we've had our moments. I particularly love my report of 21.9" on that. I don't believe that was my total, though--I believe I ended up with 23 or 24. On the other side of the coin, there are no reports from Franklin County on the Nov 8 report. I guess we busted up here. I had snow early Nov several times, legit chances is what I wrote, of course not every year but you get more chances in early Nov and you are a part of SNE as it Mitch, Pete, Hunchie, Dendrite etc.then I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 24, 2014 Share Posted August 24, 2014 Actually 249 if my count is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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