dendrite Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Life is tough in those dews--enjoy!! 68.5/60 at 1:00p.m. Not too shabby. August is now an autumn month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Life is tough in those dews--enjoy!! 68.5/60 at 1:00p.m. Not too shabby. Enjoy the fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 We seem to be done with the 90's for this year, very high probability based on models. More concerned that we may be dealing with a TC strike next month, with pattern maybe becoming favorable with some Atlantic blocking and "WAR" ridge re-positioning. If we get 500 mb heights to 588-590 in Atlantic Canada and New Foundland, something could be curved right into the LI and New England area, if there is indeed something to track later on. I would sense about a 12-15 percent chance of a direct impact TC strike this September for a Cat 1 cane. This summer does reminds me so much of 1985 which had a hot SE and a much cooler NE. We had Gloria that Sept. I bet the summer pattern is a bit similar too. Hope we avoid any TC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 On tornadohistoryproject.com does anyone know what scale the time is? Is it UTC time, eastern time, central time or what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 MAV has 32F at SLK Tue morning...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadomachine Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 On tornadohistoryproject.com does anyone know what scale the time is? Is it UTC time, eastern time, central time or what???It appears to be local time... It would help if they listed it. It may be a storm by storm basis (I looked at the Moore and Springfield tornado reports on there to say that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 It appears to be local time... It would help if they listed it. It may be a storm by storm basis (I looked at the Moore and Springfield tornado reports on there to say that). I know at one time I believe all the reports were all in central time than after a certain year they were all listed in local time (may have been opposite). I might just shoot them an email to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Beach day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Im staying at the hilton near foxwoods and its actually kind of humid going to play bingo tonight then hit the card tables lol Beach day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Nothing screams beach like mostly cloudy , windy and 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 dude you could have come visited me at the Museum today, nice and sunny now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Nothing screams beach like mostly cloudy , windy and 72 Glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 There is a subtle ...almost hidden characteristic in the 12z guidance that tries to bring more of that ridge in the east idea back. Also, the 00z NAO derivative shows that in 2 days it nadirs, ...then rises some 2 SD to just over positive by D10. That does offer room to lift the westerlies polarward over the eastern CONUS; and indeed the oper. versios demo this having D. Straight ridge node go from +2SD down to -1SD in just a week. It's possible ...tho only tentatively modeled/noticeable, that the models haven't responded to all that stressing just yet. If so, it might be a coup for the GFS if a period of anomalous warmth did afterall take place, accompanied with some WARing or quasi therein... Before all that happens, quasi REX is migrating E in the flow thru D5/6 before breaking down: That ridge/trough couplet between Ontrario/OV is new over the last 3 or so days of modeling, and looks to transpire. If this feature were not there, the atmosphere would feature a unilateral ridge complexion and the atmosphere of posts in here would be different. It kind of also makes the warm-nay-sayers right for the wrong reason (which is particularly annoying) because no one saw this, which delays continental warming E of the Mississippi. Without the invisible emerging conveniently, it got hot sooner. Now, with the NAO now showing a stronger correction than recent times (in the progs), combined with the changing Pac, a pattern change is looming. It's not abundantly clear what form it takes, but a warmer eastern 1/3 has cards on the table now in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Low 80's here. Was a rouge shower that cam through a couple hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Yeah Tip that's what Ventrice was saying about why and how we warm up last part of month and Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Yeah looks like our area stays cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 I just see this propensity to keep lower heights around here and high pressure nearby. Until that moves, "no heat for you!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Yeah looks like our area stays cooler. Relative to what - If we mean Nebraska when the releasing takes place (if/when...) then sure. I think though, for the first time in this debate over the last 2 weeks worth of it, while the erstwhile modeling had heat they couldn't get inside of D8, we may actually have better chances for that to succeed. Keeping in mind, we got to get passed the REX deal thru D6, though. That doesn't discuss magnitude, just that a paradigm shift in the general circulation should watched for by those that have to forecast. Nor did I consume any of this Ventrex person's ideas - never heard of him/her. It's probably coincidence, Kevin, that I see this now, because I did not see this two days ago, and at that time, the NAO had less clustering around a warmer sort of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Relative to what - If we mean Nebraska when the releasing takes place (if/when...) then sure. I think though, for the first time in this debate over the last 2 weeks worth of it, while the erstwhile modeling had heat they couldn't get inside of D8, we may actually have better chances for that to succeed. Keeping in mind, we got to get passed the REX deal thru D6, though. That doesn't discuss magnitude, just that a paradigm shift in the general circulation should watched for by those that have to forecast. Nor did I consume any of this Ventrex person's ideas - never heard of him/her. It's probably coincidence, Kevin, that I see this now, because I did not see this two days ago, and at that time, the NAO had less clustering around a warmer sort of scenario. Hes the long range and energy guru at WSI and Scooter sort of reports to him. He's been banging the warm drum for New England for late Aug and early Sept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 I just see this propensity to keep lower heights around here and high pressure nearby. Until that moves, "no heat for you!" Days of ene flow is what Joe D and Phil are saying, Rex block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Relative to what - If we mean Nebraska when the releasing takes place (if/when...) then sure. I think though, for the first time in this debate over the last 2 weeks worth of it, while the erstwhile modeling had heat they couldn't get inside of D8, we may actually have better chances for that to succeed. Keeping in mind, we got to get passed the REX deal thru D6, though. That doesn't discuss magnitude, just that a paradigm shift in the general circulation should watched for by those that have to forecast. Nor did I consume any of this Ventrex person's ideas - never heard of him/her. It's probably coincidence, Kevin, that I see this now, because I did not see this two days ago, and at that time, the NAO had less clustering around a warmer sort of scenario. As I mentioned on Fri, analogs suggest the last week is warmer and more humid than normal, teleconections also suggest it. would not surprise if we end up with a warmer shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Eventually we should be able to sneak some heat in here. Could happen earlier rather than later but that all depends on what happens with that low just off the coast. It doesn't appear it will really sit in place all that long and it should break down and slide on east opening the door for stronger ridging to slide east. The pattern could also increase convection chances from the Plains to the east coast...pretty decent look for ridge rollers and multiple MCS opportunities. The 700mb pattern as well would support remnant EML advection to at least the OV region but maybe a piece survives into our region. It's a rather interesting look for late August but this look has produced some of the bigger late summer severe events this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Looks like a dry normal temps week. Good for the fall foliage which is starting,,but bad for lawns. No rain thru next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 As I mentioned on Fri, analogs suggest the last week is warmer and more humid than normal, teleconections also suggest it. would not surprise if we end up with a warmer shot . Yeah I looked up the analogs last week also ... mainly because I was scratching my head with all these "ridgy" warm extended Euro and GFS oper. solutions at the time, and at the time .. the tele's were off/didn't agree. It's been interesting to see the climate derived analogs sort of lead the tele's on this. But it was definitely something that I was looking for, the clustered rise in the NAO -- which we now have. It's not a hugely demonstrative flip into a raging one-eyed monster of a positive NAO, but it's a significant enough of a phase "relaxation" to offer up a different circulation regime for the eastern 1/3 ... Nothing's verified either... just an extended lead effort here folks. Now watch ... we'll get the paradigm shift, but back door so we don't sensibly see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Eventually we should be able to sneak some heat in here. Could happen earlier rather than later but that all depends on what happens with that low just off the coast. It doesn't appear it will really sit in place all that long and it should break down and slide on east opening the door for stronger ridging to slide east. The pattern could also increase convection chances from the Plains to the east coast...pretty decent look for ridge rollers and multiple MCS opportunities. The 700mb pattern as well would support remnant EML advection to at least the OV region but maybe a piece survives into our region. It's a rather interesting look for late August but this look has produced some of the bigger late summer severe events this way. The old autumn tor spike... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 You made my kids' day posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Looks like a dry normal temps week. Good for the fall foliage which is starting,,but bad for lawns. No rain thru next Sunday Why didn't you run Falmouth today? I would have cheered you on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 The old autumn tor spike... ? Could be interesting from OV into NY/PA...the projected 500mb pattern is what you would want to see for solid severe chances...it may not materialize here per se but just off to our west it may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 MAV has 32F at SLK Tue morning...lol. Nice, haha. Topped out at 64F at home today with several rounds of light mist/sheet rain showers...only 0.01-0.02" in the stratus gauge but man has it felt like October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 17, 2014 Share Posted August 17, 2014 Picked our daughter up at Newport today. Beach looked inviting on a perfect beach day there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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