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August Discussion


TauntonBlizzard2013

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I tried once a few years ago..didn't help.  If I were him I'd just get a weather bridge and it would simplify the whole process.  Might be a little complicated though depending on your abilities.

I  asked both you and Ginx to stop by and see if you could assist me..but noone ever came. The offer still stands if someone is able to

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What a heat failure on those last few euro runs.

 

Yea I mentioned this yesterday at the end of an opine ... how the overall mass fields, as derived off the multi-member ensembles (GEFs) have not ever (just yet) supported that negative PNAP circulation construct.  It's been tossed around periodically by the operational runs, where their respective ensemble means have suggested more of a pattern relaxation than an all out reversal ... such as some of these recent operational GFS runs have demonstrated.   The Euro is not exempt from blame there, either, as though it's 00z run has all but entirely obliterated that theme in lieu of persistence reasserting its self ... it too had a few runs prior that illustrated the same idea.

 

Yet, NCEP yesterday read as though they bit on the idea of a western trough/eastern ridge couplet setting in across the mid-latitudes of N/A during next week..  I think at this time of year it is exceptionally difficult to employ corrective techniques, particularly those derived by teleconnector use.   Most know this ... but the wave convolution is typically higher in summer, and the shortened wave-lengths therein requires that the correlations must also be different.  For example, a -1.0 NAO means a different implication in July/August -vs- January/February. And that's true up and down the scale, and throughout all the various calculated domain spaces (EPO, AO, PNA, WPO...etc etc..).  NCEP most recent rendition does back off the -PNAP idea a bit, opting for summary that reads a bit more like pattern relaxation rather than a heat bearing reversal:

 

...OVERVIEW... UPPER-LEVEL JET INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC LEADS TO THE TRANSITION FROM HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US--TO A MORE ZONAL AND FLATTER LOW

AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.  

 

The discussion they put out is a good read, btw - folks should take that in.  Anyway, one thing is for certain is that the Pacific circulation is changing significantly heading into the middle range (and who knows if that lasts into the extended...) Enough so that it really should usurp the flow over N/A.  "Weather" that means redistributing the geopotential nodes (high and low) into a -PNAP out in time, or merely signifies the roulette wheel of take a guess has been spun, remains to be seen ... but I suspect the latter. 

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When Ventrice calls for it.. It's coming

@MJVentrice: Forecast calls for an upcoming period of warmer than average weather over eastern two thirds #CoolingDemand http://t.co/kJnu6JpHbK

 

Its bound to happen at some point.  But at this point we've seen this movie several times already this summer, and it hasn't happened.  But its bound to happen at some point, that being warmer than normal couple week period.

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Is New England in the "Eastern 2/3 of the US"? He's your boss .. I wouldn't go against him if I were you.

 

Thanks for the tip, chief. 

 

There is a difference when referencing a general region such as the East and then a very specific area like NE. We were talking yesterday. He's not my boss BTW. Not my dept.

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