August Discussion

[HoarfrostHubb]

The lack of anything close to a heat wave seems unusual. Prob statistically not rare in the ORH area but seems weird

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jeez. Only 60.5F back at home. Mid to upper 70s and sunny in SRI attm

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just hope the piper is not paid thus winter. What goes up must come down

Pay this

[CoastalWx]

That avatar Ray...just kills me still.

[moneypitmike]

Temps dropping at the clouds move in. 62 at ORH..lol.

 

56.4/52 at the Pit now.  The suns' just come out at last though (1:10).  Maybe we'll climb to the mid 60's as progged.

[dryslot]

56.4/52 at the Pit now.  The suns' just come out at last though (1:10).  Maybe we'll climb to the mid 60's as progged.

 

Temps like that will keep the algae bloom down in the pool

[ORH_wxman]

I guess this is what happens to public opinion when the last 9 summers' seasonal departures have averaged about a degree above normal at all SNE sites with some of those summers close to +3 for the trimonthly departure. This is a normal summer, or about as close to it as we've been in some time. Using 90 degree days isn't a good metric since SNE does not get very many in an average summer (BDL 12.7 for the JJA period and everyone else <10). 90-degree days so far during the summer months and the normal through this date in parenthesis:

 

BDL - 9 (10.5)

BOS - 4 (7.9)

ORH - 0 (1.5)

PVD - 3 (6.9)

 

 

Not just summer, but we've been abnormally warm year-round recently.

 

Past 7 years temps versus the previous 10:

 

 

 

Eastern Canada and the northeast US has been the lucky ones if you love torches. Bullseye right over eastern MA, lol. If anything, I'd say to Kevin that we're going to "pay the piper" by eventually getting some much colder weather...much like the plains saw after some bigtime warmth in the late 90s and early 2000s.

[moneypitmike]

Temps like that will keep the algae bloom down in the pool

 

Temps like this can cause Aug. to come in bn.

[dryslot]

Temps like this can cause Aug. to come in bn.

 

Some here would have a real problem with that, I find it perfect weather

[CT Rain]

I guess this is what happens to public opinion when the last 9 summers' seasonal departures have averaged about a degree above normal at all SNE sites with some of those summers close to +3 for the trimonthly departure. This is a normal summer, or about as close to it as we've been in some time. Using 90 degree days isn't a good metric since SNE does not get very many in an average summer (BDL 12.7 for the JJA period and everyone else <10). 90-degree days so far during the summer months and the normal through this date in parenthesis:

 

BDL - 9 (10.5)

BOS - 4 (7.9)

ORH - 0 (1.5)

PVD - 3 (6.9)

 

Did you ever figure out what BDL's annual is? I have 17 for 90+ days in the 1981-2010 period but that link from NCDC shows something different. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Will, is it rare for ORH to verify actual heat wave temps? 3 days of 90+

[CT Rain]

well the message today has been people are saying it's perfect for summertime activities such as swimming. Why do I need a shrink because I want it hot and humid in summer when it s supposed to be?

 

Where do you pull this stuff out of?

[CoastalWx]

I've been having fun with trend lines for areas since 2000. Amazing how the NW and Plains have cooled off.  They will pay sooner or later.

[Damage In Tolland]

Where do you pull this stuff out of?

You'll have to excuse me.. I just stepped out of the pool. Was sweating after doing shirtless yard work. Would you be kind enough to dry my back and hiney? I'll knock my sombrero off which is shielding me on thus beautiful summers day

[CT Rain]

Looks like about 80 tomorrow and sunny for the beaches on the Sound.

 

Pack your jackets and gloves!!

[ORH_wxman]

Will, is it rare for ORH to verify actual heat wave temps? 3 days of 90+

 

 

Yes...it has happened only a few times in the past 30 years that I could find.

 

I think 1988, 1991, 2010, 2011 and 2013.  We've had a nice cluster recently after almost a 20 year gap. We did have another cluster in the late 1940s/early 1950s.

[CoastalWx]

Even right now it's 75 on the Cape with sunshine. Seems fine to me.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thanks Will

[snowman21]

Did you ever figure out what BDL's annual is? I have 17 for 90+ days in the 1981-2010 period but that link from NCDC shows something different. 

I'd have to go with the NCDC published number of 14.6. It's in their files and on their web site, so at least it's consistent as far as I can tell. If you do the math though, there were 512 90+ days at BDL in the 1981-2010 normals period for an annual average of 17.1. However, as is the case with most of the normals published by NCDC, they aren't straight arithmetic means, and there's a fair amount of smoothing in trying to represent the true mean based on a small sample size of 30 while constraining and normalizing to maintain internal consistency between the various temperature-related elements. The old number for the 1971-2000 normals was 17.7 which appears to be the arithmetic mean (532 days over 30 years).

[Typhoon Tip]

Agree with Will that perceptive weather and meteorology oft part company... 

 

If the crux of a summer ... or winter for that matter, get stolen away to an opposing anomaly, chances are the person on the street corner may cave into the anomaly period as the predominant signal.  When in fact ... this summer demonstrating, we are above normal; albeit modestly, but take out that July cool spell and the warm anomaly may be more impressive in the numbers.  

 

Be that as it may... for me, this is a cold summer relative to a clad and well studied 30-year rising global mean.  I pointed this out in early spring that while the eastern CONUS and UMW/Lakes regions were observing one of the coldest winters ever, it was the 4th warmest January for the planet since record keeping.  A tendency overall that I do not believe we lost heading through the spring and into this summer.  We still seem to be putting up negative departures relative to the planetary mean for that same period of time.  Fascinating.  

[CT Rain]

Even right now it's 75 on the Cape with sunshine. Seems fine to me.

 

Horrible!!!

[CT Rain]

I'd have to go with the NCDC published number of 14.6. It's in their files and on their web site, so at least it's consistent as far as I can tell. If you do the math though, there were 512 90+ days at BDL in the 1981-2010 normals period for an annual average of 17.1. However, as is the case with most of the normals published by NCDC, they aren't straight arithmetic means, and there's a fair amount of smoothing in trying to represent the true mean based on a small sample size of 30 while applying constraints to maintain internal consistency between the various temperature-related elements. The old number for the 1971-2000 normals was 17.7 which appears to be the arithmetic mean (532 days over 30 years).

 

Gotcha... that explains the discrepancy I have here at the office. Appreciate it. 

[CoastalWx]

Horrible!!!

 

Man look at this. Boy this looks disgusting. 

 

http://www.morebeach.com/cape-cod-beach-cams

[CT Rain]

Man look at this. Boy this looks disgusting. 

 

http://www.morebeach.com/cape-cod-beach-cams

 

Glad everyone decided to pack parkas and hats. I hope Phil has enough heating oil to survive this frosty stretch. 

[ORH_wxman]

I'd have to go with the NCDC published number of 14.6. It's in their files and on their web site, so at least it's consistent as far as I can tell. If you do the math though, there were 512 90+ days at BDL in the 1981-2010 normals period for an annual average of 17.1. However, as is the case with most of the normals published by NCDC, they aren't straight arithmetic means, and there's a fair amount of smoothing in trying to represent the true mean based on a small sample size of 30 while constraining and normalizing to maintain internal consistency between the various temperature-related elements. The old number for the 1971-2000 normals was 17.7 which appears to be the arithmetic mean (532 days over 30 years).

 

 

NCDC has all the data in their calculation, correct?

 

I've noticed sometimes they don't use all the data in the 30 year period. This happens more for snowfall, but I know even some temperature records got a little cruddy during the ASOS transition of the late 1990s. I'm not sure if they still are, but I know at one point whole months were missing even for temps during some of those years.

[moneypitmike]

You'll have to excuse me.. I just stepped out of the pool. Was sweating after doing shirtless yard work. Would you be kind enough to dry my back and hiney? I'll knock my sombrero off which is shielding me on thus beautiful summers day

 

 

It's a good thing your windows are locked.  It's keeping it a nice warm 70% inside. 

[Ginx snewx]

Can't stress again and again how much dew point makes a difference in real feel for a summer. Raw temp data means little to the non wx person. Feeling warmth at 74/72 and feeling cold at 74/45. I deal with comfort level every day, humidity is the perception changer. a +1.5 summer with high dews will certainly feel to the average person hotter than a low dew one. DEW the dew

[snowman21]

NCDC has all the data in their calculation, correct?

 

I've noticed sometimes they don't use all the data in the 30 year period. This happens more for snowfall, but I know even some temperature records got a little cruddy during the ASOS transition of the late 1990s. I'm not sure if they still are, but I know at one point whole months were missing even for temps during some of those years.

It's hard to say what ultimately goes into it unless you're the one writing and running the software that generates the numbers. There are completeness flags on the normals data, but even just looking at the climate record, there is not a single missing day that I can see at BDL in the 1981-2010 period. All 10,957 days appear to be accounted for, and I assume NCDC uses the same publicly available climate record. Furthermore, NCDC makes available the hourly data that they used to calculate the hourly normals, and BDL has 99.7% coverage (262,105 temperature observations out of a possible 262,968) for the 30 year period. All signs point to very good data coverage at BDL for the 1981-2010 time period.

 

Snowfall data is a whole other story as we all know. For missing values of any element, I believe they did try to fill that in if possible using various standard methods for doing so. Obviously for precipitation related elements that's not going to give a very good representation, but for temps should be OK.

 

Back to the 90+ days discrepancy - you'd have to toss or miss a lot of 90+ days (roughly 2 or 3 every single summer over the entire 30 year period) to account for the difference between the published number and the average, so the difference is in the calculation methodology.

[WNash]

Man look at this. Boy this looks disgusting. 

 

http://www.morebeach.com/cape-cod-beach-cams

 

I see a lot flesh colored neoprene wetsuits

[Ginx snewx]

90