powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yeah the moisture robbed may have something to do with it, but radar is lit up down in NW CT and the Berks..they are playing catch up. It's also important not to overstate the upslope component too. Sure we'll have SE winds, but you really want unimpeded flow into the mtns to get it...not some conv blob to the southeast robbing moisture. My approach to these events are usually just to try and see if models show a pattern, and then what makes sense in your head based on past experience. My experience is that we normally have a two QPF max area...one with a separate conv/deformation/upslope area and then one near the WF/cstlfront area where low level forcing is maximized. I never take the approach of running away with model QPF totals verbatim...but analyzing all the meso models we have, can give an idea. It won't always be right though. The SE upslope is a good point...that big convection definitely had to hurt that to some extent. I'm not up north obviously, but pretty surprised that Mansfield has been ripping SE winds sustained 30s, gusting into the 50s (that's really sort of unusual to get that sort of SE jet there in August) enough to shut down any summer lift operations, and yet not really getting anything more than 0.01-0.02" per hour --RN with the amount of moisture available. Usually something like that with those wind speeds should be slamming moisture into the east slopes, especially with the high PWATS. I guess my thing with the two QPF maxes, was I just kept looking for that eastern NY maximum (I know Blizz kept referring to it as a weenie looking band, lol) that the models continued to show, even at 00z models last night. Its definitely not the same as winter-time synoptics, but the same idea is probably in play where convection robs further NW. Look at the 00z GGEM/NAM/GFS (I didn't look at the most reliable ECM, lol) and they were wrong on a pretty short range forecast. This is ending at 2pm and won't be close in the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 At the very least its a nice change of pace to talk about some weather.... I'm just going to sit back now to avoid feeling like Messenger over-analyzing every isobar on the RUC ("Its going southeast, look!) on this event, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yep, the models kind of missed eastern NY. Although I think we may see ern NY and VT precip blossom perhaps as the mesos show and the s/w sharpens up the trough. Might even have some cells train a bit this aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MBRI Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 4.2" since 5 AM Coventry RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Joe DelliCarpini @JoeDawg42 18m @TollandKev Yes we need to watch those areas as well. SPC SREF shows decent severe potential thru early evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 4.2" since 5 AM Coventry RI nice neighbor, probably similar at home, drought mega cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Yep, the models kind of missed eastern NY. Although I think we may see ern NY and VT precip blossom perhaps as the mesos show and the s/w sharpens up the trough. Might even have some cells train a bit this aftn.Yeah I think VT will do fine, I was just shocked at NY. If it were a winter storm I definitely would've freaked out up there this morning in Stowe lol, but they will get that banding over the Berks as it lifts north.Last night would've been one of those 6-12" forecast to be on the ground at daybreak, heavy at times, only to wake up to flurries and 1.5", lol. But it'll come today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Surge values 1.5 to 2 feet in SRI so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Surge values 1.5 to 2 feet in SRI so far Wish I was a little bit closer to the coast...definitely would take a drive if it was like 30-45 minutes away. Not 1.5 hours each way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Lightning and thunder--wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Wish I was a little bit closer to the coast...definitely would take a drive if it was like 30-45 minutes away. Not 1.5 hours each way though. huh , Woodstock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Ryan Maue said HRAP did the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Ginxy that is an analysis I think. Not a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Ginxy that is an analysis I think. Not a model. oh I know , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 qpf, Please come back in december.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I was impressed with the dual-pol estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 lol, brightening skies in Falmouth. I'm going to guess under .10" here. I bet Greenfield got a lot more than that... Good week for CC vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Cellular banding in ECT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 huh , Woodstock? It's always taken me 75-90 minutes to reach Misquamicut. We are like furthest NW in Woodstock though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Ginxy that is an analysis I think. Not a model. Looks similar to the map BTV made for social media: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 It's always taken me 75-90 minutes to reach Misquamicut. We are like furthest NW in Woodstock though.oh, would be a great whole day, get some fritters, hit up some big surf, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 3.75 from the in house network spotter at Moosup. Pot roast in the crock pot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 No satisfactory flooding yet. Look at all those orange pixels to the west just going to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Scooter.. What time should storms start firing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Scooter.. What time should storms start firing today? I don't know what to think. If there were any, it probably would be in SE NY and adjacent CT so long as we have some sun. Probably not until after 4-5 there? I don't see convection as a high potential in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 I don't know what to think. If there were any, it probably would be in SE NY and adjacent CT so long as we have some sun. Probably not until after 4-5 there? I don't see convection as a high potential in our area. Is that the actual low heading up in far SW CT now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 Shawl day for sure. 61.3/60 .60" in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 4.9" so far at my location in Coventry near the town hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 13, 2014 Share Posted August 13, 2014 No satisfactory flooding yet. Look at all those orange pixels to the west just going to waste. Relative screw job so far here, but 0.50"-1.00" is plenty for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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